2015 Global model runs discussion

#1081 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:29 pm

The GFS also has it turning sharply ENE in the Northern Gulf at the end ahead of a strong front. It's all in the long-range so the exact track will likely change but chances appear to be increasing something is going to form.

12Z GFS:

12Z CMC into LA:

#1082 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:49 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I see a little spin down there.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

You're seeing a weak upper-level low in the NW Caribbean. There likely won't be any feature present until maybe late Saturday or Sunday.

#1083 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 12:52 pm

Both the Euro & GFS are developing a surface low reflection of a sharp upper-level trof, something the Canadian model does with about every upper-level low/trof around the world. Given the model consensus, I'd say that there's at least an 80% chance that "something" will be in the Gulf next week. Most likely a sheared hybrid (weak) low that goes unclassified by the NHC. It seems highly unlikely that the northern Gulf will support a strong TS or hurricane next week.

#1084 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:Both the Euro & GFS are developing a surface low reflection of a sharp upper-level trof, something the Canadian model does with about every upper-level low/trof around the world. Given the model consensus, I'd say that there's at least an 80% chance that "something" will be in the Gulf next week. Most likely a sheared hybrid (weak) low that goes unclassified by the NHC. It seems highly unlikely that the northern Gulf will support a strong TS or hurricane next week.

Totally agree with you.

stormlover2013 · #1085 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:07 pm

EURO struggling once again lol, now has it hitting Texas

#1086 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:08 pm

Quite a shift west with the Euro and it is still showing some kind of hybrid system / trough. Two different solutions from the Euro and GFS for sure. Going to be interesting what happens.

Euro: more west and less tropical looking (WGOM) with EPAC crossover as the origins.
GFS: more east and more tropical looking (NGOM/EGOM) with trough over Yucatan/NW Carib as origins

Genesis from troughs can give the models fits for sure and yet we see it again here.

#1087 Postby **crownweather** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:Quite a shift west with the Euro and it is still showing some kind of hybrid system / trough. Two different solutions from the Euro and GFS for sure. Going to be interesting what happens.

Euro: more west and less tropical looking (WGOM) with EPAC crossover as the origins.
GFS: more east and more tropical looking (NGOM/EGOM) with trough over Yucatan/NW Carib as origins

Genesis from troughs can give the models fits for sure and yet we see it again here.

Correct me if I'm wrong wxman, but if memory serves me correctly, Texas impacts are quite unusual after about mid-September and the mean overall track for a hybrid/true tropical system is more towards the northeastern and eastern Gulf Coast (AL/FL Panhandle/West Coast of Florida). So, based on this looking at the 12Z guidance, I'm leaning much more towards a track that takes any sub-tropical/hybrid system towards the NE Gulf Coast rather than the Texas impact like the Euro is showing.

#1088 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:27 pm

crownweather wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong wxman, but if memory serves me correctly, Texas impacts are quite unusual after about mid-September and the mean overall track for a hybrid/true tropical system is more towards the northeastern and eastern Gulf Coast (AL/FL Panhandle/West Coast of Florida). So, based on this looking at the 12Z guidance, I'm leaning much more towards a track that takes any sub-tropical/hybrid system towards the NE Gulf Coast rather than the Texas impact like the Euro is showing.

I remember a certain someone convinced Rita would not hit Texas due to the date.

Vastly different type of year, of course.

Number of Texas impacts by month.

Code: Select all

August   19
September   23
October   13
November   2

source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Texas_hurricanes_(1980%E2%80%93present)

HURRICANELONNY · #1089 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:28 pm

Don't get too much into the model hype. Models do the same thing every year. All it is really showing is a trough of low pressure somewhere. The lowering of pressure always makes global models pop lows everywhere. every year. :roll:

#1090 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:39 pm

It bears wartching as Joe B. says!

#1091 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:01 pm

JB and his tunnel vision with SSTs but does not say a word about the relentless shear, lol.

HURRICANELONNY · #1092 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:29 pm

Miami discussion 9/21.

Late in the weekend/early
next week...GFS and European model (ecmwf) have been showing tropical development
into the Gulf of Mexico. Placement of the low would have
implications on local area weather of course. Latest model
consensus shows this low into the central or eastern western Gulf
of Mexico. Plenty of time to monitor for this potential. /Gregoria

Sounds like they got a handle on it :eek:

#1093 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:30 pm

The long-range GFS shows an upper anticyclone just about on top of this low in the Gulf so the shear profile looks quite favorable if this were to verify

TheStormExpert · #1094 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:37 pm

NDG wrote::uarrow: JB and his tunnel vision with SSTs but does not say a word about the relentless shear, lol.

How can someone seriously discount the biggest inhibiting factor of the season!? Makes no sense when shear has been present all over the place this season.

#1095 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:39 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: JB and his tunnel vision with SSTs but does not say a word about the relentless shear, lol.

How can someone seriously discount the biggest inhibiting factor of the season!? Makes no sense when shear has been present all over the place this season.

Who is to say that the shear we saw over the GOM the past few weeks will also be there next week? The GFS certainly thinks things look at least marginally favorable if not very favorable depending on where the low actually forms (see projected vertical shear image above from GFS)? It is September still after all

CourierPR · #1096 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:50 pm

Good point, Gatorcane. This has certainly been a strange hurricane season and shear values could lower by next week.

caneman · #1097 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:55 pm

Agreed Gator. Saying the shear will be bad 7 or 8 days out is about the same as saying you know who will win the super bowl. You can guess but it would be nothing more than a guess at this point.

#1098 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:55 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong wxman, but if memory serves me correctly, Texas impacts are quite unusual after about mid-September and the mean overall track for a hybrid/true tropical system is more towards the northeastern and eastern Gulf Coast (AL/FL Panhandle/West Coast of Florida). So, based on this looking at the 12Z guidance, I'm leaning much more towards a track that takes any sub-tropical/hybrid system towards the NE Gulf Coast rather than the Texas impact like the Euro is showing.[/quote]

It is unusual for storms to track to Texas as September ends. However, it all depends on the upper-level pattern that develops. The pattern in the 12Z Euro supports a track to Texas. The pattern in the GFS doesn't. Which one is right? Can't tell yet.

#1099 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:06 pm

Once again, the JMA shows very little through the end of its run in the Gulf. So, if it ends up being next to nothing, the JMA would deserve kudos.

TheStormExpert · #1100 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:19 pm

LarryWx wrote:Once again, the JMA shows very little through the end of its run in the Gulf. So, if it ends up being next to nothing, the JMA would deserve kudos.

That model doesn't have a good record though.

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