2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

This is pretty cool. SAL isn't always the end all!

 http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1275545726081253378

[FireRat]

I know this is very early but I think the record breaking Saharan dust which seems to be never ending all the way to the Sahara will put the brakes on the thinking that this will continue to be an early active season. I can't remember such a dusty sky in very active seasons. It has put the whole MDR and Caribbean under a very hostile environment, it might even cool down some the surface waters. It will be a very long boring July for the MDR if the dust episodes continue so strong.

This graph can be posted a thousand times and it still won't be enough. Look at historical activity right up to August 1st. The main reason for this low activity is SAL. "Tis the season.

https://i.ibb.co/1vdv3rQ/peakofseason-sm.gif

Even early November has historically been a bit busier than most of June and July. The graph really tells the tale, we may get one MDR system in July and even a hurricane from it, but the meat of the season will be Aug 15 thru Oct 25 or so. With almost every disturbance trying to develop this season so far, I can only imagine how wild it might get during peak season, 2020 really seems to be one of those years that most lows try to organize. 2005 was like that too, this year reminds me of that one in this sense. Hopefully the SAL will prevent the kind of madness we say in July 2005, a July like no other.

[Chris90]

Just to comment on the Saharan Dust outbreak, I'm located on the Illinois/Wisconsin stateline, and I just saw a local forecast tonight talking about Saharan dust reaching us by Saturday morning.

I don't think I've ever seen any mention of Saharan dust for my locale. I mean, I'm only 30, so that's a really short timespan in the whole scheme of things, so something like this could have definitely happened before, but people here don't even know about Saharan dust outbreaks.

In a local Facebook group I'm part of, somebody has already made a meme using "The Mummy" about how Imhotep has cursed us with a dust outbreak.

First we had Cristobal come through here, now dust? As someone who tracks the tropics, it's strange to me how much unusual activity is traveling to us from the tropics. With the other favorable indicators that have been holding for a decent amount of time now, I'm kind of wishing I'd posted higher numbers. I'm thinking there's a very good chance of 20+ named storms at this point. I think this dust outbreak and the severity is an indicator showing the WAM means business this year. I really hope steering currents send as many storms as possible out to sea.

[NDG]

Just to comment on the Saharan Dust outbreak, I'm located on the Illinois/Wisconsin stateline, and I just saw a local forecast tonight talking about Saharan dust reaching us by Saturday morning.

I don't think I've ever seen any mention of Saharan dust for my locale. I mean, I'm only 30, so that's a really short timespan in the whole scheme of things, so something like this could have definitely happened before, but people here don't even know about Saharan dust outbreaks.

In a local Facebook group I'm part of, somebody has already made a meme using "The Mummy" about how Imhotep has cursed us with a dust outbreak.

First we had Cristobal come through here, now dust? As someone who tracks the tropics, it's strange to me how much unusual activity is traveling to us from the tropics. With the other favorable indicators that have been holding for a decent amount of time now, I'm kind of wishing I'd posted higher numbers. I'm thinking there's a very good chance of 20+ named storms at this point. I think this dust outbreak and the severity is an indicator showing the WAM means business this year. I really hope steering currents send as many storms as possible out to sea.

That is fairly unusual to make it that far north and what makes this dust outbreak unusual is how thick it is, usually you can barely make it out on visible satellite early in the mornings and at dusk, with this one it can be seen in the middle of the day on vis satellite.

[NDG]

I know this is very early but I think the record breaking Saharan dust which seems to be never ending all the way to the Sahara will put the brakes on the thinking that this will continue to be an early active season. I can't remember such a dusty sky in very active seasons. It has put the whole MDR and Caribbean under a very hostile environment, it might even cool down some the surface waters. It will be a very long boring July for the MDR if the dust episodes continue so strong.

This graph can be posted a thousand times and it still won't be enough. Look at historical activity right up to August 1st. The main reason for this low activity is SAL. "Tis the season.

https://i.ibb.co/1vdv3rQ/peakofseason-sm.gif

Even early November has historically been a bit busier than most of June and July. The graph really tells the tale, we may get one MDR system in July and even a hurricane from it, but the meat of the season will be Aug 15 thru Oct 25 or so. With almost every disturbance trying to develop this season so far, I can only imagine how wild it might get during peak season, 2020 really seems to be one of those years that most lows try to organize. 2005 was like that too, this year reminds me of that one in this sense. Hopefully the SAL will prevent the kind of madness we say in July 2005, a July like no other.

My whole point of my post is that if dust outbreaks continue during July it will be a slow month over the very warm MDR with below average MSLP, making it almost impossible for strong TWs that we have seen already to develop. This will definitely not be a repeat of July 2008 yet alone 2005 if dust episodes continue over the next few weeks.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1275747291693973504

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1275747291693973504

Besides 2013 and 2020, the only other seasons with an AOD of >1.0 are 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018. Only 2015 was a below-average season. Does anyone recall when the SAL outbreaks of 2005, 2010, and 2018 took place?

[toad strangler]

This graph can be posted a thousand times and it still won't be enough. Look at historical activity right up to August 1st. The main reason for this low activity is SAL. "Tis the season.

https://i.ibb.co/1vdv3rQ/peakofseason-sm.gif

Even early November has historically been a bit busier than most of June and July. The graph really tells the tale, we may get one MDR system in July and even a hurricane from it, but the meat of the season will be Aug 15 thru Oct 25 or so. With almost every disturbance trying to develop this season so far, I can only imagine how wild it might get during peak season, 2020 really seems to be one of those years that most lows try to organize. 2005 was like that too, this year reminds me of that one in this sense. Hopefully the SAL will prevent the kind of madness we say in July 2005, a July like no other.

My whole point of my post is that if dust outbreaks continue during July it will be a slow month over the very warm MDR with below average MSLP, making it almost impossible for strong TWs that we have seen already to develop. This will definitely not be a repeat of July 2008 yet alone 2005 if dust episodes continue over the next few weeks.

You are probably right. July is typically a dead or very slow month. SAL is a big reason. #climo
Go with it and you will come out on top 85 to 90 percent of the time. It's a safe place to be.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1275747291693973504

The SAL is nearly off the charts, literally! I wonder what implications this will have on the rest of the season if any? I know the switch can quickly flip but knowing how impressive this SAL is, can it put a damper on things.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1275780318759399425

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1275781543731003393

[AutoPenalti]

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1275780318759399425?s=20

That verification seems very glitchy. No way that -VP200 is that high

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1275747291693973504

Besides 2013 and 2020, the only other seasons with an AOD of >1.0 are 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018. Only 2015 was a below-average season. Does anyone recall when the SAL outbreaks of 2005, 2010, and 2018 took place?

2015 was a below average season, as mentioned, based on ACE and number of hurricanes.
2010 the season didn't really got going until after mid August after the dust settled down.
2018 we saw hurricane Chris in mid July over the middle of the MDR but it was in a very low latitude, as soon as it gained latitude and encountering SAL it started weakening.
2005 we didn't really see an active CV season, they all developed as they entered the Caribbean, but by this time shear was already below average and instability above average across the Caribbean. I remember pre Katrina struggling with shear and SAL north of the Lesser Antilles.

[toad strangler]

Big shout outs to the Carolinas here

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1275797988850503682

[chaser1]

Hard to say exactly how steering will set up but here's a curious tidbit that may or may not suggest upstream patterns. Not sure how many people might have caught this but yesterday marked the single hottest day ever within the Arctic Circle. In Northern Siberia, the temperature rose to 100F. The previous record occurred in July 1988. While 1988 was not particularly active (it was an average year of 12 named storms), one might take a closer look at the primary Atlantic storm tracks that occurred that year. By the way, these included Joan and Gilbert. Perhaps another hint that we will see a heavy concentration of storm tracks generally impacting the far Westernmost Atlantic basin.

[toad strangler]

Hard to say exactly how steering will set up but here's a curious tidbit that may or may not suggest upstream patterns. Not sure how many people might have caught this but yesterday marked the single hottest day ever within the Arctic Circle. In Northern Siberia, the temperature rose to 100F. The previous record occurred in July 1988. While 1988 was not particularly active (it was an average year of 12 named storms), one might take a closer look at the primary Atlantic storm tracks that occurred that year. By the way, these included Joan and Gilbert. Perhaps another hint that we will see a heavy concentration of storm tracks generally impacting the far Westernmost Atlantic basin.

So the twit crew I just posted are talking Carolina's, you see MX and SA, does that mean we take a blend and FL and upper GOM are in big trouble?

[Nuno]

Sure seems like it, at least in recent times. Of course, such hits were brutally common from 1920s-1950.

I think that if we'd had more hurricane activity between 1950 (King) and 1992 (Andrew), Miami and the rest of South Florida would not be what it is today. IMO......a lot of the population and economic growth of Southeast Florida has been made possible by a half-century of no-hits, and in some cases just brushes from stronger storms. Betsy and Donna were significant, but not true threats given their landfall locations in the upper and middle Keys. Cleo was a cat 1 and nothing even 1964 Miami couldn't handle. Yet after Betsy, we went almost 30 years before even sniffing a hurricane. No coincidence a lot of our explosive growth happened in the 70s and 80s....there was nothing but a mild scare from David.

Cat 5 Irma was an existential threat to the entire tri-country metro area, and especially Miami proper had it taken that nightmare 880mb GFS track right up the gut. Some of the newer post-Andrew condo buildings may have survived that, but not a whole lot else would have. More than likely, millions of us would have been forced to seek out a new life elsewhere. We owe Cuba one for that, big time.

I think modern Miami is about as well-equipped as it can be to take on a major hurricane, but not an 880mb 195-205mph storm.

I don't think any place can take an 880mb 195mph storm! Though, a 920mb 1965mph Andrew-type is certainly survivable with the post-Andrew building codes. There would still be catastrophic destruction though. I'll never forget the sheer terror of reading the NWS warnings before Irma that "parts of Miami may be uninhabitable for several months"

[FireRat]

Just to comment on the Saharan Dust outbreak, I'm located on the Illinois/Wisconsin stateline, and I just saw a local forecast tonight talking about Saharan dust reaching us by Saturday morning.

I don't think I've ever seen any mention of Saharan dust for my locale. I mean, I'm only 30, so that's a really short timespan in the whole scheme of things, so something like this could have definitely happened before, but people here don't even know about Saharan dust outbreaks.

In a local Facebook group I'm part of, somebody has already made a meme using "The Mummy" about how Imhotep has cursed us with a dust outbreak.

First we had Cristobal come through here, now dust? As someone who tracks the tropics, it's strange to me how much unusual activity is traveling to us from the tropics. With the other favorable indicators that have been holding for a decent amount of time now, I'm kind of wishing I'd posted higher numbers. I'm thinking there's a very good chance of 20+ named storms at this point. I think this dust outbreak and the severity is an indicator showing the WAM means business this year. I really hope steering currents send as many storms as possible out to sea.

Must be the year of the Scorpion!!

Well, at least Imhotep will keep things relatively calm over the next week or 2.

[Shell Mound]

OOF!

Yep...Let’s put this recurve discussion to bed now! This has been my concern to this point. Get ready folks

They're also mentioning that the high pressure pattern is a little further north than previous years...anyone get that? and if so, let's discuss what that could mean.

Looking at data for the IOD back to 1871, I found that most of the major hurricanes to hit (mainland) Southeast Florida coincided with a -IOD, including the big hits of 1888, 1926, 1928, 1933, 1945, 1947, 1950, 1965, and 1992. (If the Keys are included, then MH hits in 1929, 1935, and 1960 also occurred during -IOD events.) Only one MH hit—that of 1949—coincided with an +IOD. (If the Keys are included, then Irma in 2017 also coincided with an +IOD event.) According to the data, +IOD events during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season have become much more frequent in the last twenty-five years than at any similar period since 1871. This may explain why we have seen fewer MH impacts on Southeast FL and the U.S. East Coast generally since the recent +AMO began in 1995. Based on ESRL 500-mb data, -IOD events tend to promote greater N-S (meridional) orientation of ridging, whereas +IOD events tend to facilitate E-W (zonal) “bridging” of ridging. In the latter situation, there tend to be more cutoff lows or TUTTs beneath the northward-displaced ridge, thereby inducing tracks either offshore or toward the Carolinas and/or Caribbean/GoM.

[chaser1]

Hard to say exactly how steering will set up but here's a curious tidbit that may or may not suggest upstream patterns. Not sure how many people might have caught this but yesterday marked the single hottest day ever within the Arctic Circle. In Northern Siberia, the temperature rose to 100F. The previous record occurred in July 1988. While 1988 was not particularly active (it was an average year of 12 named storms), one might take a closer look at the primary Atlantic storm tracks that occurred that year. By the way, these included Joan and Gilbert. Perhaps another hint that we will see a heavy concentration of storm tracks generally impacting the far Westernmost Atlantic basin.

So the twit crew I just posted are talking Carolina's, you see MX and SA, does that mean we take a blend and FL and upper GOM are in big trouble?

What, like split the difference?? Maybe