2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[BobHarlem]

3 systems on 12z gfs on october 1st, first is something that pops up by the keys

[Stratton23]

GEPS backs the support of the AI models

[SFLcane]

GEPS backs the support of the AI models

Ai is probably overzealous and will probably start the all to familiar theme of the season and start down trending over the wknd. Models have been nothing short of atrocious in my opinon when you think you have some consensus its all over the next day.

[Stratton23]

Even the 12z EPS up trended somewhat, a couple more members showing development , will be interesting to watch this one

[zzzh]

18Z EPS trended much stronger for wave #2.

[Tailgater33]

Crickets in here, it must be February. We were due a slower/ less hyper season. Hopefully no no major threats

[ConvergenceZone]

Crickets in here, it must be February. We were due a slower/ less hyper season. Hopefully no no major threats

yea next year will probably be back with a vengeance, so enjoy the break

[StormWeather]

Crickets in here, it must be February. We were due a slower/ less hyper season. Hopefully no no major threats

yea next year will probably be back with a vengeance, so enjoy the break

Will it though? I feel like I’m seeing signs that we could go into El Niño (still too far away to truly know), which since we might not have the record warm that drove 2023 could mean if El Niño does come we will see lower numbers.

[TomballEd]

Graasping, but Canadian has a pretty decent wave about to enter the Gulf in 10 days. GFS shows systems trying and failing and can't even generate a CAG low, which the model usually does. Out in silly season, there are some GFS ensemble members in the Gulf,

[BobHarlem]

Two areas on the TWO now. The GFS is keying on the lemon, while CMC/Euro are keying on the Orange. CMC/Euro DO show the lemon area too, just much weaker. GFS just tosses the orange. Orange has a thread already though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Crickets in here, it must be February. We were due a slower/ less hyper season. Hopefully no no major threats

yea next year will probably be back with a vengeance, so enjoy the break

Will it though? I feel like I’m seeing signs that we could go into El Niño (still too far away to truly know), which since we might not have the record warm that drove 2023 could mean if El Niño does come we will see lower numbers.

but there have been el nino years busier than predicted, just the same way as this year suppose to have had busier than normal numbers. I've learned that the tropics just do whatever they want to, which is why predictions are so often wrong. But back to the models, it will be interesting to see if the models start coming together and showing some development in the Gulf. I would b shocked if the models don't latch on to something consistently within the next couple of weeks.

[WeatherBoy2000]

18z gfs entertains the possibility of both AOIs developing along with its own hurricane in the gulf.

[TomballEd]

18z gfs entertains the possibility of both AOIs developing along with its own hurricane in the gulf.

Happy Hour!

[Teban54]

Happy Hour GFS:

Below average? Hold my beer

[Teban54]

0z ICON ends with something in the Gulf:

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

0z GFS with a cat 4 over Bermuda at 366 hours

[kevin]

06z GFS operational shows a dramatic uptick in activity the coming two weeks with 2 or 3 more hurricanes after Gabrielle. A summary and GIF below:

1) Gabrielle, Sept 22 - Sept 27: affects the Azores as a 980 mb hurricane. Also impacts Spain as a post-tropical cyclone.
2) Sept 26 - Sept 30: The 10/30 AOI becomes a TS, touches the outer banks of NC as a minimal ~65 kt hurricane before recurving. Peaks around 981mb/75kt. The 10/60 AOI doesn't seem to develop this run.
3) Sept 30 - at least Oct 8: A TS forms just south of Hispaniola. Makes landfall as a TS and reforms north of Hispaniola. Bombs out while travelling WSW and makes landfall in NE Cuba as a ~80 kt hurricane less than two days after passing Hispaniola. Basically powers through the entirety of Cuba over the course of 5 days while keeping steady or even intensifying to 966mb/95 kt above land/along the coast. Would be a historic hurricane for Cuba, never seen anything like this. Slowly starts to exit Cuba at the end of the run to the north, still as a high-end cat 2 or low-end cat 3.
4) Oct 4 - at least Oct 8: A TS forms in the open Atlantic (22N/52W). Meanders a bit as a weak TS and intensifies into a cat 2 while recurving well east of Bermuda, around 970mb/90kt and the end of the run.

[ronjon]

Think October may be a busy month for tropical cyclones. Latest GFS is the busiest I've seen all season which hints at an active October. Interesting that the GFS sling shots the 10-30 AOI into the Mid-Atlantic coast due to a negatively tilted mid-level low over the SE US. Euro model much further east with this feature.

[skillz305]

Anyone else see the monster sitting over Cuba/Florida Straits at 300+ hours on 06Z GFS? WTF

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone else see the monster sitting over Cuba/Florida Straits at 300+ hours on 06Z GFS? WTF

Yeah, good thing that's 384 hours.