TD 10...Back Again

[elysium]

No, NNE of Puerto Rico, due north of St. Croix.

[HURAKAN]

No, NNE of Puerto Rico, due north of St. Croix.

Are you talking about this?

[elysium]

Yes!

[Sanibel]

Elysium:


Learn the craft. You are looking at a mid-level remnant vortex of a stripped and dissipated TD. It is only twisting because of the hostile environment around it that stripped it in the first place.

That one dot in the middle just north of Puerto Rico might re-flare, but a wise storm watcher knows the synoptic ahead of it is extremely dry so its future is dim...

[Air Force Met]

Look 75 or so miles due north of Puerto Rico.

A couple of thundershowers? There is a mid-level swirl a couple hundred miles NNE-NE of PR...but nothing at the lower levels...which is evident by the low clouds moving WNW....and is not uncommon when you get nocturnal thunderstorms.

So...what are we supposed to be seeing?

[Air Force Met]

Yes!

Care to make yet another forecast?

[rainydaze]

Here is some discusson about the ridge from Miami NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES FOR
AWHILE NOW. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO 70W AND THEN THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 70W AND 50W. NONE OF THIS HAS ANY
REASON TO CHANGE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WAVE RUNNING UNDER
AN UPPER CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF 60W THIS MORNING. THIS COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS IS PROBABLY GIVING IT MORE
EMPHASIS THAN IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SO FOR THE MOST PART WILL
LEAVE THE PROBABILITIES BELOW CLIMATE. AND WITH THE DRIER AIR THAT
THE SATELLITE AND GPSMET SHOW OVER US TODAY WILL KEEP THE
PROBABILITIES LOW AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENS SOME BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THEN WE COULD SEE A BETTER
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST AND THUS HIGHER PROBABILITIES
HERE.

[cycloneye]

671
NOUS42 KNHC 191700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
0100 PM EDT FRI 19 AUG 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 20/1800Z A. 21/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210A INVEST B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE
C. 20/1600Z C. 21/0930Z
D. 22.5N 71.0W D. 22.5N 74.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2130Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

They still plan to task the ex10 system from tommorow but without organization no missions will occur.

[Air Force Met]

One other note: The wave axis is well to the west of the MLC. Looking at the high-res vis...you can see the lower level clouds moving SW near 23/68 and moving NW near 22/65. The wave axis is near 67-68 west. Anything going on north of St Croix or Puerto Rico is not going to do anything anytime soon...given the strong NW'ly flow on the east side of the wave. Anything that could get going needs to get going along the wave axis.

[elysium]

The models have all fallen into a uniform consensus that mirrors the above Miami NWS discussion. So we have confirmation now on the ridge. Thank you.

Sanibel has thrown in a wild card about the dry air in front of the system. This is the first I am hearing about this. The only dry air that I had been aware about up until now was the dry air off Florida's coast that I hadn't addressed because I had thought that the drier type pattern was subject to change and would not be a factor at that point in time. If I am understanding what Sanibel is saying, however, there is dry air directly in front of remnant TD 10. Per review of WV imagery, I haven't located it yet as such, but I am not very sure if I am interpreting the imagery correctly. Another thing; I am not very knowledgable about how entrenched dry air can become, so basically I was taking the advice of another professional meteorologist post who yesterday indicated that dry air would not be a factor, but I didn't research that.

I'm not seeing any dry air directly in front of this system if I am interpreting the imagery correctly. How do you look for dry air? I thought that it would show up as deep black on imagery, or slightly tainted red black.

[Sanibel]

Weak spiral 20.7-67.9

[wxwatcher91]

671
NOUS42 KNHC 191700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
0100 PM EDT FRI 19 AUG 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 20/1800Z A. 21/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210A INVEST B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE
C. 20/1600Z C. 21/0930Z
D. 22.5N 71.0W D. 22.5N 74.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2130Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

They still plan to task the ex10 system from tommorow but without organization no missions will occur.

what about today? yesterday's schedule had them departing at 18z (2pm edt) is the mission still on? I havent heard anything about a cancellation but not about it being on either...

[dgparent]

No, NNE of Puerto Rico, due north of St. Croix.

I have to hand it to you, you know your geography, all I know about that area is that it is warm, they have nice beaches and good drinks !!

[Thunder44]

If TPC doesn't think anything will form in the next day or so out this. Than why did they schedule more flight starting tomorrow?

[ROCK]

Now are we done yet? Now let's just wait for the next one OKAY.

...done at least until the next ridiculous forecast...then it'll start all over...

AMF, please define ridiculous forecast because since you are a respected MET on here I would rather not post something that would incur your wrath on this board. Thanks....

[Steve H.]

Air Force Met is correct. The only thing that could re-develop is further WNW where he gave the coords. That is what is left of the low level circulation. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that something could come of this during the next day or two.

[WindRunner]

671
NOUS42 KNHC 191700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
0100 PM EDT FRI 19 AUG 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 20/1800Z A. 21/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210A INVEST B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE
C. 20/1600Z C. 21/0930Z
D. 22.5N 71.0W D. 22.5N 74.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2130Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

They still plan to task the ex10 system from tommorow but without organization no missions will occur.

what about today? yesterday's schedule had them departing at 18z (2pm edt) is the mission still on? I havent heard anything about a cancellation but not about it being on either...

Yes I assume it was cancelled, the last report is from a training/transfer flight landing at St. Croix at 2050Z last night. (which means that there are two planes (recon and training) there now???)

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well maybe it is just me but I thought I saw some evidence, I say some evidence of a low level circulation on the sw side. I noticed a curved band of low level cumulus there that seemed to curve toward the presumed center. In any here is the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[elysium]

GFS, UKMET, GEM, ECMWF, all back the NWS stance on ridging. NAM a little less so but stronger on ridging than yesterday. Navy models also seem to support the NWS analysis on SE conus ridging.

[jkt21787]

Now are we done yet? Now let's just wait for the next one OKAY.

...done at least until the next ridiculous forecast...then it'll start all over...

AMF, please define ridiculous forecast because since you are a respected MET on here I would rather not post something that would incur your wrath on this board. Thanks....

All I will say is pros, moderators, amateurs, about EVERYBODY on this board has one opinion about some of the posts in this thread except for a very small number, to which you are apparently part of.