2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[zzh]

https://i.imgur.com/0EenHnp.gif
If this verifies, we can see some significant warming in the MDR. Maybe this is the final piece we need for a hyperactive setup?

The MDR is not an issue. The past couple seasons (2019, 2020, and 2021), the MDR has always been warm enough for hyperactivity; it was always other factors that prevented hyperactivity: for 2019, it was the +ENSO; for 2020, it was nothing because that season was hyperactive; for 2021, it was the strong Atlantic Nino.

From CSU's discussion


In the years you mentioned only 2020 was warm enough to support hyperactivity. MDR SSTAs in 2019 and 2021 did not reach hyperactive level until early September.

And about Atlantic Nino, here is a SSTA composite from all hyperactive years since 1995. Atlantic Nino was not the thing that stopped 2021 from hyperactivity, MDR SSTA was.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/0EenHnp.gif
If this verifies, we can see some significant warming in the MDR. Maybe this is the final piece we need for a hyperactive setup?

The MDR is not an issue. The past couple seasons (2019, 2020, and 2021), the MDR has always been warm enough for hyperactivity; it was always other factors that prevented hyperactivity: for 2019, it was the +ENSO; for 2020, it was nothing because that season was hyperactive; for 2021, it was the strong Atlantic Nino.

From CSU's discussion
https://i.imgur.com/MvRSjmz.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/an2EObD.jpg
In the years you mentioned only 2020 was warm enough to support hyperactivity. MDR SSTAs in 2019 and 2021 did not reach hyperactive level until early September.
https://i.imgur.com/m4O7kd5.png
And about Atlantic Nino, here is a SSTA composite from all hyperactive years since 1995. Atlantic Nino was not the thing that stopped 2021 from hyperactivity, MDR SSTA was.

The interesting thing about 2021 was, undoubtedly, its sudden basinwide shutdown in October and November. The season was on track to go over 145 ACE, and if it had several more hurricanes and named storms (maybe include a powerful October WCAR hurricane), it could have very likely attained 155 ACE and possibly a bit upwards. The Atlantic Nino did likely cause late season disturbances to crash into South America and prevent storm formation (everything spilled into the EPAC instead), and this is where I think I would agree with AlphatoOmega. Also, there was an anomalous shearing late-season TUTT, which is where the 2007 comparisons came in, and the season had heavy dependence on MJO state. I definitely think 2021 *could* have attained hyperactive status (in fact, of the years from 2016 to now, it is the highest ACE, non-hyperactive season), but its shutdown after September due to a multitude of non sst-related factors really prevented that from happening. By then the MDR was plenty warm, so I don't see why MDR sst anomalies alone at least during the late season would have had any impact on activity levels.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555302237605888



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535591009458851841



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535593523579195393

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555302237605888
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535591009458851841
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535593523579195393

Oh yeah...yeesh. At this point, I think it's safe to say that these bullish models may actually really be onto something and that this isn't some sort of false high activity alarm that we got in years like 2006 or 2013. I actually do think Eric makes a good point here, that the reduction in competition with the Pacific basins may really give a leg up for Atlantic activity. This is something that some of the non-hyperactive years being compared to 2022, such as 2000, 2008, and 2011 lacked, as they too had decently active WPAC or EPAC seasons. Also interesting to see how Eric thinks that that reduction in interbasin competition may make this year just as favorable as 2017 in a certain sense.

[cycloneye]

Webb with his nuggets.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535630185130651648




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535636126571999233

[cycloneye]

This part of the UKMET has me and our friends in the islands go yikes. wxman57 What is your forecast for the NE Caribbean?

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555306184376320

[Stormybajan]

This part of the UKMET has me and our friends inn the islands go yikes.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555306184376320

I can definitely see an Earl/Luis/Irene type Hurricane moving through the area but im just hoping we don't get *ANYTHING* remotely similar to the 2017 monsters.

[skyline385]

Webb with his nuggets.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535630185130651648

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535636126571999233

Webb sounds like he has reached acceptance stage

Jokes aside, the one year in recent era which supports his theory in recent years is every Floridian's nightmare year 2004

[cycloneye]

This part of the UKMET has me and our friends inn the islands go yikes.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555306184376320

I can definitely see an Earl/Luis/Irene type Hurricane moving through the area but im just hoping we don't get *ANYTHING* remotely similar to the 2017 monsters.

In which island you are?

[IsabelaWeather]

This part of the UKMET has me and our friends inn the islands go yikes.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555306184376320

I can definitely see an Earl/Luis/Irene type Hurricane moving through the area but im just hoping we don't get *ANYTHING* remotely similar to the 2017 monsters.

I disagree, I would love those monsters, but not directly impacting the islands

[IsabelaWeather]

This part of the UKMET has me and our friends inn the islands go yikes.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1535555306184376320

I can definitely see an Earl/Luis/Irene type Hurricane moving through the area but im just hoping we don't get *ANYTHING* remotely similar to the 2017 monsters.

In which island you are?

IIRC he's in Barbados

[Category5Kaiju]

Webb with his nuggets.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535630185130651648

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535636126571999233

Webb sounds like he has reached acceptance stage

Jokes aside, the one year in recent era which supports his theory in recent years is every Floridian's nightmare year 2004

https://i.imgur.com/99QOYkx.png

I am genuinely curious as to what the June sst anomalies would have looked like in years like 1926, 1928, 1935, 1950, and 1992, which also had very powerful and damaging East Florida coast landfalls.

[SteveM]

Good thing there’s no correlation to GOM SST’s and overall activity.

People have noted this quite a lot recently and I do wonder. Storms that develop or blow up in the GoM may not be huge ACEmakers because they are doomed to run into land before long. But big and devastating storms can develop there and precisely because they inevitably run into land, they are often the most notable ones. Just something to bear in mind.

[SFLcane]

This!!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535675312045842432

[Category5Kaiju]

Good thing there’s no correlation to GOM SST’s and overall activity.

People have noted this quite a lot recently and I do wonder. Storms that develop or blow up in the GoM may not be huge ACEmakers because they are doomed to run into land before long. But big and devastating storms can develop there and precisely because they inevitably run into land, they are often the most notable ones. Just something to bear in mind.

Harvey, Michael, Katrina, Laura, Rita, Ida, Camille, Wilma, Opal, Gustav…yup, makes sense

[Chris90]

I am genuinely curious as to what the June sst anomalies would have looked like in years like 1926, 1928, 1935, 1950, and 1992, which also had very powerful and damaging East Florida coast landfalls.

If you go to the NOAA CoralReef Watch, scroll down a bit and they have an archive that goes back to 1985 I believe. You'll be able to check out any day in 1992 you want. Doesn't have the other years you mentioned, but it's a good record for the last almost 40 years.

I would provide you a link, but I'm currently on a new phone and lost all my old bookmarks from my previous phone.

[skyline385]

I am genuinely curious as to what the June sst anomalies would have looked like in years like 1926, 1928, 1935, 1950, and 1992, which also had very powerful and damaging East Florida coast landfalls.

If you go to the NOAA CoralReef Watch, scroll down a bit and they have an archive that goes back to 1985 I believe. You'll be able to check out any day in 1992 you want. Doesn't have the other years you mentioned, but it's a good record for the last almost 40 years.

I would provide you a link, but I'm currently on a new phone and lost all my old bookmarks from my previous phone.

I got curious and checked 1992 for the week leading to Andrew. While the SST were below average, they were all above 28-28.5C in Andrew's path to FL which is more than enough for sustained TC intensification.

[ThomasW]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

[MHC Tracking]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

This sort of thing has been said pretty much every season since 2013 and not once did it pan out.

[tolakram]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.