2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[AnnularCane]

Even 2004 and 2005 had recurves, so I imagine this year should have at least a few. Although I guess you mean recurves out into the ocean? Because if it just means storms curving north, they can still do that and hit land.

[JetFuel_SE]

Even 2004 and 2005 had recurves, so I imagine this year should have at least a few. Although I guess you mean recurves out into the ocean? Because if it just means storms curving north, they can still do that and hit land.

Indeed.
Curves north, ruins everyone's fun.
(although this is 1999's Floyd)

[Deshaunrob17]

Four tropical waves before June 1st is not unusual!!!!! However, the structure of the waves this early are very impressive. Easy to see with for the untrained eye.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1795976938823004256

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1795976938823004256

Yeah there was a bit of talk earlier this year about how a possible fail mode could be like 2007 with the first-year La Nina. But with how absurdly warm the waters are now, that ship has definitely sailed. We're locked in with very warm waters at this point.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1795976938823004256

Yeah there was a bit of talk earlier this year about how a possible fail mode could be like 2007 with the first-year La Nina. But with how absurdly warm the waters are now, that ship has definitely sailed. We're locked in with very warm waters at this point.

The notion that our "fail mode" would be a season with numerous category 5s is in of itself, quite something.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1796139269880512536

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1795976938823004256

Yeah there was a bit of talk earlier this year about how a possible fail mode could be like 2007 with the first-year La Nina. But with how absurdly warm the waters are now, that ship has definitely sailed. We're locked in with very warm waters at this point.

The notion that our "fail mode" would be a season with numerous category 5s is in of itself, quite something.

Not to mention 2007 was the first season with two Cat 5 landfalls, and the only other time this happened was 2017.

[Pas_Bon]

Yeah there was a bit of talk earlier this year about how a possible fail mode could be like 2007 with the first-year La Nina. But with how absurdly warm the waters are now, that ship has definitely sailed. We're locked in with very warm waters at this point.

The notion that our "fail mode" would be a season with numerous category 5s is in of itself, quite something.

Not to mention 2007 was the first season with two Cat 5 landfalls, and the only other time this happened was 2017.

Should we all just go and buy ice and dump it in the Gulf at this point?

[Stratton23]

A couple of 31 degree celcius isotherms showing up in parts of the gulf now, unbelievable, I wouldnt be surprised if we have a couple of major hurricanes in the gulf this season, all of that energy is just building up, im very concerned about rapidly intensifying storms in the gulf and western caribbean

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1795968983205581234

[cheezyWXguy]

The notion that our "fail mode" would be a season with numerous category 5s is in of itself, quite something.

Not to mention 2007 was the first season with two Cat 5 landfalls, and the only other time this happened was 2017.

Should we all just go and buy ice and dump it in the Gulf at this point?

They did that on Futurama and it seemed to work for a while so I say go for it

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1796556500804256186

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not to mention 2007 was the first season with two Cat 5 landfalls, and the only other time this happened was 2017.

Should we all just go and buy ice and dump it in the Gulf at this point?

They did that on Futurama and it seemed to work for a while so I say go for it

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1796556500804256186

Hoping it at least falls below 2023 as we get into summer. But in the longer term, it is a losing battle as the globe keeps warming.

[MetroMike]

The trend of the Atl SST seems as if the subtropics will not be as cool as forecast going forward. Unless we get quite a few long track hurricanes coming through the MDR and Caribbean the heat energy will not be dissipated. Much as occurred last fall in certain areas.
I'm no expert to any stretch here just a visceral feeling I have.

[Pas_Bon]

The trend of the Atl SST seems as if the subtropics will not be as cool as forecast going forward. Unless we get quite a few long track hurricanes coming through the MDR and Caribbean the heat energy will not be dissipated. Much as occurred last fall in certain areas.
I'm no expert to any stretch here just a visceral feeling I have.

This is correct. The biggest problem regarding water temps we have this year is the DEPTH of the warm water. Upwelling certainly occurs with passing storms. The problem I see is that the ocean heat content available is historically high - not only at the surface.

[StPeteMike]

It’s still looking though that the Subtropics SST will still stay relatively cooler compared to the MDR and GoM for the season, which doesn’t bold well for taming development and slowing down storms rapid intensification through the MDR.

[SFLcane]

From @MichaelRLowry...

Colorado State University (CSU) is currently forecasting a total ACE – the scorecard of seasonal activity – of 210 for the Atlantic (the 30-year average is 123). According to CSU lead forecaster Dr. Phil Klotzbach, “We have observed eight 200-plus ACE seasons on record: 1893, 1926, 1933, 1950, 1995, 2004, 2005 and 2017. All of these years had three or more landfalling hurricanes, and all but 1995 had two or more major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane landfalls. And whatever 1995 lacked in buffeting the continental U.S., it made up for with Caribbean wrath, with both Luis and Marilyn that year hammering the Lesser Antilles.” Years with more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes have averaged twice the number of mainland U.S. landfalls per year than those seasons with fewer than 10 total hurricanes (3 vs. 1.5 mainland U.S. landfalls). So while there have been very active seasons like 2010 (with an ACE of 165) in which we’ve had no U.S. hurricane landfalls, 2010 is the exception, not the rule, and in general very busy seasons see more landfalling hurricanes.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1796533123590893752

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1796691168350077242