TD 10...Back Again

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050819 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050819 1800 050820 0600 050820 1800 050821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 67.6W 21.8N 69.3W 22.1N 71.1W 22.2N 73.0W
BAMM 21.2N 67.6W 21.7N 69.4W 22.1N 71.4W 22.3N 73.1W
A98E 21.2N 67.6W 22.0N 69.8W 22.7N 72.0W 22.9N 74.2W
LBAR 21.2N 67.6W 21.9N 69.5W 22.6N 71.6W 23.0N 73.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050821 1800 050822 1800 050823 1800 050824 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.1N 74.7W 21.7N 77.5W 21.8N 79.8W 22.6N 83.0W
BAMM 22.4N 74.7W 22.4N 77.1W 23.0N 78.8W 24.2N 81.3W
A98E 22.6N 76.7W 22.4N 81.2W 21.8N 85.4W 21.6N 89.2W
LBAR 23.4N 76.1W 24.0N 80.2W 24.7N 83.3W 25.4N 85.9W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 69KTS 76KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 69KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 67.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 65.6W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The tropical models are running again for this system at this 18:00z run.

[storms in NC]

Well I can say they has been some firing up of a few burst and it is day time.

[HURAKAN]

LETS GO TO THE GULF!

[elysium]

Look at the flow over S. Florida and the northern Bahamas. Ridge looks like it's already extending over the Georgia east coast. Low in the central westernmost Caribbean may assist give a ventilation assist down the road. Subtropical building in as forecast by most of the models.

[Air Force Met]

Now are we done yet? Now let's just wait for the next one OKAY.

...done at least until the next ridiculous forecast...then it'll start all over...

AMF, please define ridiculous forecast because since you are a respected MET on here I would rather not post something that would incur your wrath on this board. Thanks....

That's very simple....a ridiculous forecast is 1) Sensationalism 2) Has no basis in facts or data 3) Is a major change from the last forecast that also had no basis in facts and 4) One that is made and never addresses the concerns or arguements against.

[mascpa]

No! We need the rain in South Florida. Its brutally hot and dry with hardly any sea breeze at all.

[storms in NC]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS
WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION GOES FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND
35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF
A PRE-EXISTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. IT STILL
IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF T.D. TEN.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ABOUND FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 73W. IT IS PROBABLE THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 17N IS MORE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

[elysium]

The subtropical ridge has completely broken through!

[vbhoutex]

The subtropical ridge has completely broken through!

for those that don't understand what this means or what it will or will not do to xtd10 please provide a factual explanation.

[Thunder44]

Where the 18z models initialized, you can see a LLC there on visible images. Watch the low clouds turning near 21.2N and 67.6W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information refer only to the NHC and the NWS products.

TD 10 remnants are completely underneath the subtropical ridge which is building in powerfully!

[cinlfla]

What is the position of the LLC that you are seeing, I would like to check it out. Thanks

[vbhoutex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information refer only to the NHC and the NWS products.

TD 10 remnants are completely underneath the subtropical ridge which is building in powerfully!

You still didn't answer the question. What is it going to do to xtd10? We know the ridge is building in.

[cinlfla]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information refer only to the NHC and the NWS products.

TD 10 remnants are completely underneath the subtropical ridge which is building in powerfully!

Good job Elysium for posting your disclaimer...Be sure to always do that so you don't get into trouble

[jpigott]

there does appear to be some type of low level circulation in the vicinity of where the new run of tropical models initialize. There is also a small flare up of convection in this area approx 67.5W 21.2N

[jkt21787]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information refer only to the NHC and the NWS products.

TD 10 remnants are completely underneath the subtropical ridge which is building in powerfully!

You still didn't answer the question. What is it going to do to xtd10? We know the ridge is building in.

I'm not bashing, but there have been numerous times when we have requested more explanation, but have got nothing. Don't get your hopes up.

[Air Force Met]

The subtropical ridge has completely broken through!

OK...let's get it all out here...

Have you come up with a reason for TD-10 not being well on it's way?

Seriously...if you are going to make forecasts...you need to back it up with data...and when it fails...you need to re-evaluate your analysis of the data and then post what you missed. It's the only way you can learn. Your first mistake was your observations in which you said it looked better than ever...which it was not. In the past...it had a distinct LLC with convection that was sustaining itself. When you made that observation...there was no LLC...it was an open wave with scattered convection. When people pointed this out to you...you ignored them. You did not offer any response as to WHY it was better than ever. You just continued to post what you thought it would do. This happened before with Irene. People raise concerns and show you the data...you ignore them and continue on your line of thinking.

So the question I have is: Are you here to contribute or are you here just to shoot from the hip for kicks? Please be honest with us and yourself. If you are here to contribute...then take the advice of pretty much everyone who has posted to you. Stop with the sensationalist forecasts and when you do make one and someone points out where you are wrong...ACKNOWLEDGE it. Learn from it...don't ignore it. Try to start with some "IF/THEN" statements rather than these statements of facts you make that usually end up being wrong. If you want any credibility...you will take this advise and tone it down. If you are here for kicks...then 1) expect some kicks and 2) expect people to begin ignoring you.

I am trying to help you here...take the advice or leave it. A sign that you have taken it will be to discuss why the historic forecast of last night busted this morning.

[cinlfla]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

[Stormcenter]

I personally like to "just to shoot from the hip for kicks".

By the way is this a really long thread. Can you imagine how long it will get if TD10 were to redevelop and strengthen?

[Air Force Met]

Can someone please look at 21n 64w and tell me if that is an LLc or an MLc it has a good little twist to it. Thanks

It's a MLC. IF you look carefully...you can see the lower level clouds moving NW on the north side of those clouds and the south side. The low level turning is further west...along 68W. The low level flow along 64W is very strong out of the SE.