Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess that explains why there is only 1 potential area of development
now instead of 3. It seems that the models were getting confused and all 3 areas
that were forecasted to develop are now expected to merge into just one...

[curtadams]

Another day, another round of the tropical models predicting a storm will start forming from the African monsoonal trough tomorrow. Every day this week! Fourth time's the charm?

[Aric Dunn]

Still have at least 2 days on development with this system there is few waves in same general area and nothing really organizing yet. as for the models they still essentially pointless until we have development..

[Hugo1989]

Today will be a great day for both systems!

[ColinDelia]

Fewer areas of vorticity now and has increased. Earlier in the day there were two areas of vorticity close by and it appears now they have combined.

[wxman57]

Fewer areas of vorticity now and has increased. Earlier in the day there were two areas of vorticity close by and it appears now they have combined.

http://linkification.com/wx/vort.jpg

Where are you finding this image on CIMSS' site?

[ColinDelia]

Fewer areas of vorticity now and has increased. Earlier in the day there were two areas of vorticity close by and it appears now they have combined.

http://linkification.com/wx/vort.jpg

Where are you finding this image on CIMSS' site?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
Click on PGI31L then you'll see it in the radial buttons

[SoupBone]

Today will be a great day for both systems!

What does this mean?

[ColinDelia]

ASCAT

[x-y-no]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
Click on PGI31L then you'll see it in the radial buttons

Hey now ... that's a nice product ...

Thanks a lot for passing that on.

[Cryomaniac]

ASCAT

http://linkification.com/wx/ascat2.jpg

Interesting.

This will probably be a proper Invest later today.

[ColinDelia]

Isn't it great? cycloneye shared it.

Great product for those of us especially interested in cyclogenesis.

[x-y-no]

Isn't it great? cycloneye shared it.

Great product for those of us especially interested in cyclogenesis.

Yeah, I've always futzed around blinking back/forth between tabs to see things like how upper divergence and lower convergence line up. Great to just be able to overlay them.

[Aric Dunn]

I dont think we will see an invest yet. there is not enough organization yet and at minimum ( probably more than 48 hours ) 2 days before any real development.

[Riptide]

I am sure this developing TC will be fun to track regardless of what happens. It appears that we could definately obtain "major" status with this one based on model support. This might become the "Colin" that never was because we all know that Colin never became a hurricane as predicted by some intensity models.

12z GFS is running!

54 Hours.

[ColinDelia]

12z GFS. central pressure forecast. Takes about 3 days before the pressure starts to drop

0 hours 1010 mb
6 hours 1008 mb
12 hours 1010 mb
18 hours 1007 mb
24 hours 1010 mb
30 hours 1008 mb
36 hours 1011 mb
42 hours 1007 mb
48 hours 1010 mb
54 hours 1007 mb
60 hours 1009 mb
72 hours 1007 mb
78 hours 1003 mb
102 hours 996 mb

Haven't seen rest of run yet

[ColinDelia]

An hour after the last one.

[SouthFloridawx]

Strength of that Trough is going to be key. Is that going to be enough to break down the ridge? I am having my doubts about it. Not as much Vorticity the trough axis as there has been there in the NE and Canada. Certainly looks like the ridge could be stronger than indicated.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F19%2F2010+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All

[SouthFloridawx]

A couple of frames later and I don't know... Could be a recurve. That would be great for the US and the Islands. It looks like it could be a pretty big storm, so hopefully it will recurve.

[Aric Dunn]

I wanted to take that ASCAT image from above and fill in the gaps with some streamlines to show whats likely going on out there. The ASCAT that was posted is rather miss leading especially since the satellite image and ASCAT are about 4 hours apart. The organization based off that ASCAT,satellite and surface observations are showing a disorganized area of low pressure with very broad cyclonic turning with two possible higher areas of vorticity that are partially embedded in the ITCZ. there are multiple waves out there that are interacting. This is causing the system to remain disorganized. It should slowly organize over the next 2 days where at which time we could see a possible TC begin to form. Right now the only way I see the NHC talking about this in the next TWO is strictly based on the model support not on its organization. As for a Invest... It as of yet does not meet the requirements (from what I calculated) to warrant an Invest but again the model support could play a role in getting an invest sometime in the next 24hours. This process is not well understood but it has been seen many many times and certain key things happen when we see cyclogenesis in the far eastern Atlantic and so far things seem to be taking shape to get a TC it just needs a couple more days since the area is very large !!

(I apologize for the image if its a little hard to follow as I had to make it using the mouse pad on my lap top and its just a quick analysis)
The red line is a boundary....