2015 Global model runs discussion

[WPBWeather]

Note that 850's are warmest at and near the center throughout its journey in the Gulf at +20 C+. Surrounding 850's are cooler than +20 C. I assume that is support to consider this to be pretty close to pure tropical even if sheared/has non-symmetrical convection. Am I looking at this correctly?Opinions?

You're cooking with Crisco, as the saying goes.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS simulated IR and total cloud cover simulation at 174 hours:

[floridasun78]

18Z GFS simulated IR and total cloud cover simulation at 174 hours:

that happen look part florida could see flood issue as move ne

[gatorcane]

When I take a closer look at the 500MB flow from the 18Z GFS at 168 hours from now, that certainly looks like steering that could send it right into the west coast of Florida somewhere if the system were deep enough to be steered by the 500MB flow between the ridge over the Bahamas/Eastern Cuba and the upper low over the NW GOM. That ridge over the Bahamas is weakening around this time also. The system is located WNW of the Western tip of Cuba at this time.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

Funny how nobody posted the image in which the 18z GFS shows it getting decapitated, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens as soon as it enters the GOM.

[caneman]

Ndg. Weve had many a high end TS that fought shear by travelling north and east hit us on the west coast of Florida. 70 mph, Lots of rain. High surf for an an area that is already flood soaked is not something you would downplay.

[caneman]

Well that wouldn't be good. I've lost many trees to 70 mph ts's when the grounds are soaked. Its not gonna take much wind to bring a lot of trees down right now in the Tampa Bay area.

[caneman]

I'm not sure but it seems like West Florida Is at hot spot during an El Nino year. Anyone have data at hand to back that up?

[gatorcane]

Funny how nobody posted the image in which the 18z GFS shows it getting decapitated, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens as soon as it enters the GOM.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... rsdajc.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... tvyivf.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... c7pmao.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 49mgou.png

I am not sure I believe this decapitation run from the GFS. None of last several runs I can see show this and the upper-air pattern is the same in the previous runs. Plus we are talking 200+ hours out when the decapitation starts. What I can't figure out is why the system wouldn't turn more NE in the EGOM with that 500MB pattern and stay under that upper anticyclone which would allow for even further strengthening on its track into Florida? The 06Z GFS did get this down to around 997MB in the EGOM and that was just two runs ago in the long-range. Let's see what the overnight runs show.

[stormlover2013]

Not getting a good handle, I wouldn't even look at models right now this far out, they have been so up and down this year

[NDG]

Funny how nobody posted the image in which the 18z GFS shows it getting decapitated, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens as soon as it enters the GOM.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... rsdajc.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... tvyivf.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... c7pmao.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 49mgou.png

I am not sure I believe this decapitation run from the GFS. None of last several runs I can see show this and the upper-air pattern is the same in the previous runs. Plus we are talking 200+ hours out when the decapitation starts. What I can't figure out is why the system wouldn't turn more NE in the EGOM with that 500MB pattern and stay under that upper anticyclone which would allow for even further strengthening on its track into Florida? The 06Z GFS did get this down to around 997MB in the EGOM and that was just two runs ago in the long-range. Let's see what the overnight runs show.

Why would you not question the 06z run but you question the 18z run?
BTW, the 12z run also decapitates the system as it tracks across the GOM.
When a system gets decapitated the mid level circulation continues to move along with the mid level steerings while the surface low gets left behind and gets steered around by the lower levels of the atmosphere.
If you look at the h20 winds forecast the UL anticyclone is much further south than what the windshear forecast shows.

[NDG]

I'm not sure but it seems like West Florida Is at hot spot during an El Nino year. Anyone have data at hand to back that up?

There hasn't been not one official TD or TS affect west FL this season so far, so I wouldn't say it has been a hot spot, but it has been a hot spot for sheared unorganized systems that have brought plenty of rains to west FL thanks to an UL trough that has been semi permanent over the GOM

[northjaxpro]

Actually it has bought heavy rains also across the Big Bend region and the northern peninsula as well. Since late May, it has been a very wet pattern in these parts for sure.

[Steve]

NDG,

Reasonable point. But I'm 99% sure someone posted the verifications on the GFS last year, and the accuracy declined each quarter day output. So 00z > 06z > 12z > 18z. I didn't post the link, but I remember the article.

There was a time when the general, lay belief was that the 00 and 12z runs were the only ones to take seriously. I think that belief was pretty widespread on the Internet, though I have no idea whether or not it was true back then {was the MRF back then I think or around the transition to the GFS)..

[caneman]

I'm not sure but it seems like West Florida Is at hot spot during an El Nino year. Anyone have data at hand to back that up?

There hasn't been not one official TD or TS affect west FL this season so far, so I wouldn't say it has been a hot spot, but it has been a hot spot for sheared unorganized systems that have brought plenty of rains to west FL thanks to an UL trough that has been semi permanent over the GOM

well, I know there hasn't been an actual developed system buts lots of tropical rains and close calls. I meant pattern wise.

[NDG]

NDG,

Reasonable point. But I'm 99% sure someone posted the verifications on the GFS last year, and the accuracy declined each quarter day output. So 00z > 06z > 12z > 18z. I didn't post the link, but I remember the article.

There was a time when the general, lay belief was that the 00 and 12z runs were the only ones to take seriously. I think that belief was pretty widespread on the Internet, though I have no idea whether or not it was true back then {was the MRF back then I think or around the transition to the GFS)..

Yes, I usually don't go by the 06z & 18z runs on their mid to long range forecasts but I have seen a few times in which those runs are not that way out of reality, in the short range they are just as good as the 12z & 0z runs.

So lets go by the 12z run and drop both 06z & 18z runs.
It shows 40 knot UL winds over the surface low as it nears the central GOM and 60 knot UL winds as it nears the northern gulf coast.
I usually don't buy any medium to long range forecasts for the UL winds but since late July the UL environment has been worst than what the models forecast it to be, so my thinking is that nothing will change, the UL environment will stay the same across the GOM and east coast of the US so this possible system will not be much of a weather maker other than heavy rains possibly once again coming for FL.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve]

Yeah. That makes sense to me as well. The only odd thing to some of the various runs are shadows of 2002 and Lili with the get tied up on the Yucatan solution. Don't think it will repeat but it's interesting.

[ROCK]

The 12z EURO has whatever going into TX.....at 180hrs none of these models can't be trusted...but analize away..

[Stormcenter]

Can you please post an image. Thanks!

The 12z EURO has whatever going into TX.....at 180hrs none of these models can't be trusted...but analize away..

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS still forms something in the Caribbean at about 114hrs and moves it towards the Florida Panhandle and stalls it which IMO means that it seems that the GFS is lost after 192hrs on the last few runs because the steering current is towards the Florida Penninsula on the GFS if it happens to be stronger

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products