Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Bocadude85]

July is usually a quiet month in the Atlantic. I am not sure what everyone was expecting to happen in July. For people to be calling season cancel this early is crazy. Lets wait until September before we start calling season cancel, if nothing has developed by September then I agree it will be a rather slow season.

[RL3AO]

^^^^
It's the same story every year in July. It gets pretty comical after a while.

[WeatherEmperor]

+1 on this.

I also think lack of experience of watching/studying tropical cyclones has something to do with it. Some posters on this Forum havent done this long enough. I have been watching for 20+ years. Having gone through Andrew really made me open my eyes.

Please understand I am not trying to offend anybody but I believe the more experienced members on this Forum (like myself) know it is definitely not Season Cancel time.

^^^^
It's the same story every year in July. It gets pretty comical after a while.

[TheStormExpert]

July is usually a quiet month in the Atlantic. I am not sure what everyone was expecting to happen in July. For people to be calling season cancel this early is crazy. Lets wait until September before we start calling season cancel, if nothing has developed by September then I agree it will be a rather slow season.

I'd personally give it another week or two, then if models still show nothing it might be safe to say a slow August and possibly season is underway.

[Alyono]

saw a long range EC that shows a lingering frontal boundary in the northern Gulf for much of August

That could spawn a storm or two

[Hammy]

July is usually a quiet month in the Atlantic. I am not sure what everyone was expecting to happen in July. For people to be calling season cancel this early is crazy. Lets wait until September before we start calling season cancel, if nothing has developed by September then I agree it will be a rather slow season.

I'd personally give it another week or two, then if models still show nothing it might be safe to say a slow August and possibly season is underway.

I wouldn't look for individual storms in the long range--they've done a terrible job picking up Atlantic systems more than 4-5 days out--I'd look more at what conditions the models are showing by that point.

[tolakram]

We have had a number of years where the pattern in July predicted a very slow season but over the years this has not always been the case. Predicting a slow season in July and ending up with a slow season does not indicate more than a correct guess unless there is sound meteorological reasoning behind it. It's ok to guess, but it's all the echos of the same guess that are becoming rather frustrating to read through.

Look at the various top 10 lists: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/top10.asp and observe how many of these seasons had a dead or weak July. Also recall some of the more interesting and very intense storms and what that season was like; 2007 for example, with Dean and Felix.

[NDG]

Just in case somebody misunderstood me from my post this morning before all this back and forth on whether or not SAL/dust is average or above average for this time of the year, all I said was that I don't see anything forming over the MDR over the next 10 days or so because of the SAL/dust. In no way I am calling a Season Cancel, is only July:

Lots of SAL controlling the MDR. A few days ago I thought we would see the Atlantic basin fire up by the end of this month with the MJO visiting our part of the world but I just don't see that happening for the remainder of the month with so much Saharan dust and warm layer controlling it. The only way is if a strong tropical wave is able to survive and move to either the NW Caribbean, GOM or the Bahamas area where it may have a chance to develop.

You can clearly see the SAL on this morning visible satellite pix to the NE of the tropical wave entering the Caribbean this morning.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[RL3AO]

Although this looks like the strongest SAL push possibly in all of July. Possibly another moderate one in a few days but signs of improvement after that.

I don't know enough about the mechanisms to prognosticate into the long range though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

That is one of the best waves I have seen in a long time currently in the Cape Verde area WOW! Impressive look.

[JaxGator]

That is one of the best waves I have seen in a long time currently in the Cape Verde area WOW! Impressive look.

Yep. Pretty robust wave train so far.

[ninel conde]

Dan Leonard giving me some back up on TWC. Says he sees sign of a major trough setting up over the east coast for august with much cooler temps. If that occurs its rather unlikely that the western atlantic or GOM will be favorable for development.

[Hammy]

Dan Leonard giving me some back up on TWC. Says he sees sign of a major trough setting up over the east coast for august with much cooler temps. If that occurs its rather unlikely that the western atlantic or GOM will be favorable for development.

Showing up on GFS. I genuinely hope this plays out so we can get a break from the 100s and dry weather here.

[ninel conde]

Im praying for winter at this point. the non stop rain is getting old fast. If a hurricane did hit here every single tree would be toppled.

[stormwise]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/755057599725219840

looks like the old street fighter game, a special attack in the street fighter series used by Ryu Ken. Its likely that's what E B chuckles about the ridiculous graphic.



Even more ridiculous is the model contradict its itself and shows two TD'S whilst it pumps out bowling balls of dust. Absolute CRAP but entertaining none the less NDG .

[JaxGator]

Is it just me or does the Atlantic look more moist than it did 24-48hrs ago? Not predicting TC formation but it does look more moist.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[SFLcane]

Not bad look to say the least.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/755057599725219840

looks like the old street fighter game, a special attack in the street fighter series used by Ryu Ken. Its likely that's what E B chuckles about the ridiculous graphic.

https://i.imgsafe.org/eac7972220.png

Even more ridiculous is the model contradict its itself and shows two TD'S whilst it pumps out bowling balls of dust. Absolute CRAP but entertaining none the less NDG .



https://i.imgsafe.org/eb95fbabf6.png

Where do you see that it shows two TDs? I don't see that it is contradicting itself as you say, I only see two weak tropical waves along the forecasted dust outbreak with surface pressure near 1012-1014mb, winds at h90 do not show a closed circulation or strong engouh indicative of a TD.

[stormwise]

The Nasa model as i understand has a GFS cross core. From what i have seen it can sometimes sniff something out occasionally but seems it struggles with timing.


https://i.imgsafe.org/f081dba814.png

[Hammy]

Canadian model has a huge gyre coming off Africa in about a week, but doesn't develop anything. It does inject significant amounts of moisture though, and has a significantly stronger wave behind it, which makes me wonder if the GFS is wrong in timing in that it develops the wave and moves it off too early. Euro has absolutely nothing other than a broad low, but it extends the monsoon trough from roughly 35W at the beginning of the run to 45W at the end, but has no further waves during the run.