2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS shows nothing except a good spin in the Gulf of Mexico in the long range.

One thing it does show of interest is the Pacific side being flooded with copious amounts of shear.

[ninel conde]

06z GFS with a hurricane hit in eastern NC. Ensemble members showing OTS , EC, or GOM possibilities. No other model support. Hopefully a phantom storm.

If at 12z both the gfs and euro show a well developed SURFACE low then its time to worry a bit. JB hasnt tweeted anything about it.

Well lately JB seems bored with the weather. He mostly tweets about politics now much to my dismay.

Its a bad sign when JB cant even find a glimmer of hope in the atlantic.

[PTrackerLA]

Although I don't check too often, I've noticed a few Euro ensembles starting to show systems in the GOM and SE Atlantic in the long range. Take it all with a grain of salt but I wasn't seeing this in the ensembles a week ago. Leads me to believe things are starting to change, we shall see.

[ninel conde]

Not much encouraging to look at on the Euro. Pressures too high in the deep tropics with the high pushed south and a strip of 1016-1020 mb pressures forming a wall west of the cape verdes.

[Hammy]

Not much encouraging to look at on the Euro. Pressures too high in the deep tropics with the high pushed south and a strip of 1016-1020 mb pressures forming a wall west of the cape verdes.

Seems to be 1016-18. I notice the the 1016mb isobar is about 5-10 degrees farther north than it was several weeks ago. Things are changing, albeit very slowly.

[blp]

[]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2016072412/slp10.png[/img]

Not much encouraging to look at on the Euro. Pressures too high in the deep tropics with the high pushed south and a strip of 1016-1020 mb pressures forming a wall west of the cape verdes.

Seems to be 1016-18. I notice the the 1016mb isobar is about 5-10 degrees farther north than it was several weeks ago. Things are changing, albeit very slowly.

So far July is normal in the MDR and the trend is for lower pressures. All signs are we are on a normal pace right now.

July:


Last 12 days

[Hammy]

[]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2016072412/slp10.png[/img]

Not much encouraging to look at on the Euro. Pressures too high in the deep tropics with the high pushed south and a strip of 1016-1020 mb pressures forming a wall west of the cape verdes.

Seems to be 1016-18. I notice the the 1016mb isobar is about 5-10 degrees farther north than it was several weeks ago. Things are changing, albeit very slowly.

So far July is normal in the MDR and the trend is for lower pressures. All signs are we are on a normal pace right now.

July:


Last 12 days

This confirms my suspicion that for whatever reason the ITCZ has been too far north to produce storms in the Atlantic during the month, given the pressure anomalies where they are.

[tolakram]

Anyone remember how the shear tendency maps looked last year? A lot different look this year and shear remains below average in all basins.


source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=


source: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_00-24.asp

[RL3AO]

Shhhh. You'll ruin the fallacy that the Atlantic is unusually unfavorable right now.

[TheStormExpert]

The wind shear at the moment is scary low if and when all other environmental conditions support tropical development.

I know lately I've been crying season cancel but I'm starting to wonder if this season could be a late bloomer with many BIG surprises in store?

Rather be safe than sorry.

[JaxGator]

Just a model run for the E-Pac but shear is hard to forecast. This may or may not happen at all.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_12.png

This season is more like a ticking bomb as all the factors are there for development when the time comes. I know I posted the 18z GFS run earlier showing the above average shear in the E-Pac at the same time showing storms developing in the basin. It's just one model run but it seems funny that it would do that.

[TheStormExpert]

Just a model run for the E-Pac but shear is hard to forecast. This may or may not happen at all.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_12.png

This season is more like a ticking bomb as all the factors are there for development when the time comes. I know I posted the 18z GFS run earlier showing the above average shear in the E-Pac at the same time showing storms developing in the basin. It's just one model run but it seems funny that it would do that.

Another thing to take from the 18z GFS is there is only one additional storm being forecasted to form as opposed to two like previous runs.

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't place much stock in the 18z GFS backing off EPAC development, The GFS can after several runs of being bulllish, turn the switch off for a run or two, before going back to being bullish.

[RL3AO]

When you look at the GFS in the EPac it flips the 850mb winds from easterly to westerly resulting in the high shear. If that comes to fruition, it would probably mean watch the Atlantic/Caribbean in early August.

[Yellow Evan]

When you look at the GFS in the EPac it flips the 850mb winds from easterly to westerly resulting in the high shear. If that comes to fruition, it would probably mean watch the Atlantic/Caribbean in early August.

GFs has been showing this pattern since 12z Thursday in the long-range

[TheStormExpert]

The East Pacific has to quiet down at some point if the Atlantic wants to see some action.

[stormwise]

https://s31.postimg.org/qelkkat23/eps_s ... tic_31.png

https://s32.postimg.org/4zakzdkyt/eps_s ... tic_39.png
Florida

https://s31.postimg.org/igr5in823/eps_s ... tic_43.png

Maybe a wakeup call.,Or maybe nothing long way out.

[USTropics]

:uarrow: The East Pacific has to quiet down at some point if the Atlantic wants to see some action.

While the EPAC is undergoing a historical run right now for July, history tells us this is a discrepancy typical for July:

[LarryWx]

Looking at those three maps above, the entire month of July averages under one storm per month. So, getting zero storms in nothing unusual and is actually fairly common. As a matter of fact when looking back to 1950, one can see that having 0 storms has been the mode by a good margin. So, betting on no storms in July is normally the best bet.
What may be deceiving people is that there were few July's with no storms during the active period 1995-2015. The last one with zero was 2012.

[chaser1]

0Z GFS showing lower surface pressures in the SW Carib. than recent runs. Also showing another non tropical low quickly turning tropical off the Conus East coast in the 200+ hr. range. Trending slowly towards the light switch about to be turned on.