2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Kingarabian]

What would this mean for the remainder of the Atlantic season?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/892411466107805696[tweet]

The first image is what I posted early above in regards to global background forcing. Earlier winter I believe means the pattern shifts earlier and we'll likely see a shorter hurricane season.

[RL3AO]

It should mean bye bye to an active season. It could also mean bye bye to a normal season. I am not 100% sure though. Just thought I would give my dumb opinion.

And why would enhanced forcing over the MC result in a quiet Atlantic season?

[tarheelprogrammer]

It should mean bye bye to an active season. It could also mean bye bye to a normal season. I am not 100% sure though. Just thought I would give my dumb opinion.

And why would enhanced forcing over the MC result in a quiet Atlantic season?

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892440757927391233

[Kingarabian]

It should mean bye bye to an active season. It could also mean bye bye to a normal season. I am not 100% sure though. Just thought I would give my dumb opinion.

And why would enhanced forcing over the MC result in a quiet Atlantic season?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892440757927391233[tweet]

There's still 3 months left so just monitor what happens to the Nino regions in the ENSO threa. Especially since the oncoming El Nino is losing its grip. Maybe Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 will follow suit.

[tarheelprogrammer]

And why would enhanced forcing over the MC result in a quiet Atlantic season?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892440757927391233[tweet]

There's still 3 months left so just monitor what happens to the Nino regions in the ENSO threa. Especially since the oncoming El Nino is losing its grip. Maybe Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 will follow suit.

Oh I agree 100%, but it seems like a good sign for us along the coastline of NC. Hopefully it stays that way.

[Hammy]

Above discussion starting to sound like 2002--are we headed towards a late August-early October type season?

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892440757927391233[tweet]

There's still 3 months left so just monitor what happens to the Nino regions in the ENSO threa. Especially since the oncoming El Nino is losing its grip. Maybe Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 will follow suit.

Oh I agree 100%, but it seems like a good sign for us along the coastline of NC. Hopefully it stays that way.

I'm uneasy about the east coast this year because of a favorable MDR and a dominant Bermuda high. If development happens east which typically happens when the MDR is favorable. which it has been this year, the dominant Bermuda high can always force systems moving north of the Caribbean back west towards the CONUS.

[TheStormExpert]

Either this season pulls a 2004 and we get a 6-8 week period of above normal activity in the Atlantic or it struggles some and we end up with a below normal to possibly normal season.

[TheStormExpert]

There's still 3 months left so just monitor what happens to the Nino regions in the ENSO threa. Especially since the oncoming El Nino is losing its grip. Maybe Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 will follow suit.

Oh I agree 100%, but it seems like a good sign for us along the coastline of NC. Hopefully it stays that way.

I'm uneasy about the east coast this year because of a favorable MDR and a dominant Bermuda high. If development happens east which typically happens when the MDR is favorable. which it has been this year, the dominant Bermuda high can always force systems moving north of the Caribbean back west towards the CONUS.

This is why 2004 comes to mind especially if we get a 6-8 week period of activity like that year.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Either this season pulls a 2004 and we get a 6-8 week period of above normal activity in the Atlantic or it struggles some and we end up with a below normal to possibly normal season.

I am still predicting a slightly less active version of 2010. Despite all of the season cancel that appears each year the outlook still supports an active season which should ramp up after mid-August which will put us into active territory with at least 14-18 named storms.

[RL3AO]

If we get 16 named storms with 4 majors and an ACE of 150, but no majors hit the US, I suspect we will still get the "season was a bust" posts.

[Alyono]

There's still 3 months left so just monitor what happens to the Nino regions in the ENSO threa. Especially since the oncoming El Nino is losing its grip. Maybe Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 will follow suit.

Oh I agree 100%, but it seems like a good sign for us along the coastline of NC. Hopefully it stays that way.

I'm uneasy about the east coast this year because of a favorable MDR and a dominant Bermuda high. If development happens east which typically happens when the MDR is favorable. which it has been this year, the dominant Bermuda high can always force systems moving north of the Caribbean back west towards the CONUS.

we actually need to have systems in the MDR that can survive through the TUTT for the pattern to mean anything

2000 had a lot of activity aimed at the USA from the eastern MDR (east of the islands). SAL, TUTT, and Hispañiola prevented anything from coming close to making it

[AutoPenalti]

If we get 16 named storms with 4 majors and an ACE of 150, but no majors hit the US, I suspect we will still get the "season was a bust" posts.

The opposite can be said if one major hits the CONUS and there's nothing after. The posts can be considered "hyper active"

[weathaguyry]

I think a lesser quality 2012 seems like a good bet, maybe something like 17/8/2 as numbers? The MDR is warm and the waves are healthy, but SAL and shear is a problem, so we could end up getting a bunch of "spam" storms like Bret and Don

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think a lesser quality 2012 seems like a good bet, maybe something like 17/8/2 as numbers?

I could see that. But out of curiosity what makes you think that we will only have 2 majors?

[weathaguyry]

I think a lesser quality 2012 seems like a good bet, maybe something like 17/8/2 as numbers?

I could see that. But out of curiosity what makes you think that we will only have 2 majors?

Overall shear is about normal, but there are pockets of high wind shear and SAL that will probably give anything that tries to be a long tracker some trouble. Since the atmosphere is also not perfect for development, it may be hard for something to quickly blow up into a major, but it can happen, with storms like Joaquin and Matthew

[Hammy]

I think a lesser quality 2012 seems like a good bet, maybe something like 17/8/2 as numbers?

I could see that. But out of curiosity what makes you think that we will only have 2 majors?

Overall shear is about normal, but there are pockets of high wind shear and SAL that will probably give anything that tries to be a long tracker some trouble. Since the atmosphere is also not perfect for development, it may be hard for something to quickly blow up into a major, but it can happen, with storms like Joaquin and Matthew

Interestingly Matthew was under 25kts of shear when it intensified, so moisture content and other factors can offset the shear if it's not much higher than that.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I could see that. But out of curiosity what makes you think that we will only have 2 majors?

Overall shear is about normal, but there are pockets of high wind shear and SAL that will probably give anything that tries to be a long tracker some trouble. Since the atmosphere is also not perfect for development, it may be hard for something to quickly blow up into a major, but it can happen, with storms like Joaquin and Matthew

Interestingly Matthew was under 25kts of shear when it intensified, so moisture content and other factors can offset the shear if it's not much higher than that.

Over half of that shear was enhancing the outflow since it was focused to the northern side of Matthew. If the shear is in favorable places than it can even help.

[weathaguyry]

Thanks for the information! This type of discussion usually gets muffled out during big storms like Matthew, because of all the "It's going to Florida" "It's going to die over Cuba" "This will be the storm of the century " Type of discussion

[Steve]

Bastardi's Daily Summary references the 2004 middle American August cool pool of air compared to what's expected for the beginning of August 2017 (per CFS). That's not encouraging for what was to happen to Florida over the next 6 weeks. He didn't reference Charley/Frances/Ivan/Jeanne, but he did show the similarity of the temperature anomaly pattern across the US.