2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Nuno]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2020062506/cfs-mon_01_ashearMean_month_atl_2.png

This doesn’t really look like a favourable pattern for an active Atlantic season. It’s more similar to that of years with weak El Niño conditions.

A few days ago it wasn't showing that. Also, shear is below normal in the Caribbean, not quite El Niño like.

Why do you think the most recent runs have shifted toward a much stronger TUTT over the MDR? Regarding tracks, the CFSv2 has been quite consistent, along with the UKMET and ECMWF, in suggesting that the highest precipitation stays just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. during ASO. As I mentioned, the ridge, while quite strong, is consistently forecast by the major global models to be displaced too far to the north, allowing TUTT-related weaknesses underneath that allow prospective storms to curve just east of the Southeastern U.S., so the precipitation bands do not penetrate very far inland from the immediate coastline. The long-range dynamical models have been very consistent about this over the past month or so. What could cause this to change?

Please don't use CFS for predicting future tracks.

The UKMET and ECMWF have been showing similar precipitation patterns over the past several runs.

Has the ECMWF been good recently in modeling basin-wide conditions that far out? It's been quite bearish in regards to 2020's forecast, especially compared to nearly all other forecasts for the season.

[SFLcane]

A few days ago it wasn't showing that. Also, shear is below normal in the Caribbean, not quite El Niño like.

Why do you think the most recent runs have shifted toward a much stronger TUTT over the MDR? Regarding tracks, the CFSv2 has been quite consistent, along with the UKMET and ECMWF, in suggesting that the highest precipitation stays just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. during ASO. As I mentioned, the ridge, while quite strong, is consistently forecast by the major global models to be displaced too far to the north, allowing TUTT-related weaknesses underneath that allow prospective storms to curve just east of the Southeastern U.S., so the precipitation bands do not penetrate very far inland from the immediate coastline. The long-range dynamical models have been very consistent about this over the past month or so. What could cause this to change?

Please don't use CFS for predicting future tracks.

The UKMET and ECMWF have been showing similar precipitation patterns over the past several runs.

Has the ECMWF been good recently in modeling basin-wide conditions that far out? It's been quite bearish in regards to 2020's forecast, especially compared to nearly all other forecasts for the season.

No.. it’s already busted with it’s dry bias over the African continent which has seen its wettest in a while.

[cycloneye]

The SAL effect.

[toad strangler]

JB can sure get you scratching the head with his word jumbles but the idea is pretty clear here.


 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1276309025232224258

[FireRat]

The CFS model is hardly a good source of prediction.

Anyway, when the EPac struggles to produce tropical cyclones, you know it’s game on for the Atlantic. The EPac had four invests this week and only one has been able to develop into a struggling tropical depression. The Atlantic was able to spit out a tropical storm at 40N. The signs are screaming for a very active Atlantic.

That's the reality of it, the EPAC sure is struggling this year, and while it's fun to try to predict future steering based on models, 2-3 months out, calling for OTS storms for positivity's sake, chances are that it won't be that way. Hate to say it, but a monstrous season with several landfallers is more likely, and I'm sticking to my guns and hunch of a 1996/2005/2008/2017 hybrid of some sort.

I would actually be surprised if the models get the steering right this far out. The biggest tell-tale sign of this season IMO is how most disturbances find a way to develop. This is eerily reminiscent of 2005 and time will tell if deeper in July and August we start seeing hurricanes and then even more signs pointing to a monster peak and Fall.

[NDG]

The SAL effect.

https://i.imgur.com/rnCukCM.png

You took the words out of my mouth:

"And just like that the stronger trade winds with the big SAL outbreak have cooled down Atlantic MDR and Caribbean Sea closer to average."

[Ubuntwo]

The SAL effect.

https://i.imgur.com/rnCukCM.png

You took the words out of my mouth:

"And just like that the stronger trade winds with the big SAL outbreak have cooled down Atlantic MDR and Caribbean Sea closer to average."

https://i.imgur.com/2TODBrK.png
https://i.imgur.com/ATcRyTI.png

Doesn't CDAS have a low bias during SAL outbreaks?

[JetFuel_SE]

The SAL effect.

https://i.imgur.com/rnCukCM.png

You took the words out of my mouth:

"And just like that the stronger trade winds with the big SAL outbreak have cooled down Atlantic MDR and Caribbean Sea closer to average."

https://i.imgur.com/2TODBrK.png
https://i.imgur.com/ATcRyTI.png

Doesn't CDAS have a low bias during SAL outbreaks?

Indeed it does, which is why I'd look at different methods for now. Looking at just the one with a cold bias and saying the MDR will be colder is just -removed- IMO.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1276521700994285569

[BYG Jacob]

The SAL talk has been obnoxious this year

[AutoPenalti]

The SAL talk has been obnoxious this year

Record breaking sand plume. No surprises there.

[BYG Jacob]

The SAL talk has been obnoxious this year

Record breaking sand plume. No surprises there.

You could print an encyclopedia of all the SAL talk on here and in the twittershpere

[TheStormExpert]

Some good news if it were to persist!

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1276532280043941890

[TheStormExpert]

The SAL talk has been obnoxious this year

Record breaking sand plume. No surprises there.

You could print an encyclopedia of all the SAL talk on here and in the twittershpere

Well the SAL is record breaking and has been putting a dent in the +AMO look.

[CyclonicFury]

Record breaking sand plume. No surprises there.

You could print an encyclopedia of all the SAL talk on here and in the twittershpere

Well the SAL is record breaking and has been putting a dent in the +AMO look.

The MDR still appears very warm on other datasets, CDAS seems to exaggerate SAL-related cooling of the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

You could print an encyclopedia of all the SAL talk on here and in the twittershpere

Well the SAL is record breaking and has been putting a dent in the +AMO look.

The MDR still appears very warm on other datasets, CDAS seems to exaggerate SAL-related cooling of the MDR.

Did you see the tweets I posted above that?

[toad strangler]

Some good news if it were to persist!

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1276532280043941890

I don't know about you but I'm not here is see slow years. I'm here to see as many storms spin up as possible because they are fun to track and observe. I just hope they stay away from population.

[toad strangler]

elton
Well the SAL is record breaking and has been putting a dent in the +AMO look.

The MDR still appears very warm on other datasets, CDAS seems to exaggerate SAL-related cooling of the MDR.

Did you see the tweets I posted above that?

Hazelton pretty much pooped on it

[CyclonicFury]

I feel like SAL is the most overblown indicator when it comes to predicting Atlantic hurricane activity. Every single year there are several SAL outbreaks from June to August. Around August 20 or so, SAL begins to retreat north and becomes less of a negative factor.

Even when SAL is present, that does not mean tropical cyclogenesis is present. If a system is small enough and shear is very low, it can mix out the dry air intrusions.

[Kiko Snowe]

While the SAL is very strong as of now, models indicate both the SAL clearing and a MDR system in early July. While it is very far out for the MDR storm, I think that the SAL should be atleast somewhat cleared by atleast the end of July, if not sooner.