2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

I'm posting this two run snap shot of the GFS at 240 hours as anything after is just stupid. I mean even 240 is stupid but look at the difference from 12z around the basin. Don't assume anything from these global models. Just like with 500mb steering we were talking about earlier in the day.

http://i.ibb.co/mzZ3KPH/Diff.gif

Yea saw that.. but you’d think at that latitude it’s bound to catch a ridge which it does heading NW. parade of trofs up there waiting to turn it

Agree in a verbatim sense, but my point includes the whole basin. NOTHING is similar

[SFLcane]

I'm posting this two run snap shot of the GFS at 240 hours as anything after is just stupid. I mean even 240 is stupid but look at the difference from 12z around the basin. Don't assume anything from these global models. Just like with 500mb steering we were talking about earlier in the day.

http://i.ibb.co/mzZ3KPH/Diff.gif

Yea saw that.. but you’d think at that latitude it’s bound to catch a ridge which it does heading NW. parade of trofs up there waiting to turn it

Agree in a verbatim sense, but my point includes the whole basin. NOTHING is similar

I here ya.

[Cat5James]

I'm posting this two run snap shot of the GFS at 240 hours as anything after is just stupid. I mean even 240 is stupid but look at the difference from 12z around the basin. Don't assume anything from these global models. Just like with 500mb steering we were talking about earlier in the day.

http://i.ibb.co/mzZ3KPH/Diff.gif

Yea saw that.. but you’d think at that latitude it’s bound to catch a ridge which it does heading NW. parade of trofs up there waiting to turn it

Agree in a verbatim sense, but my point includes the whole basin. NOTHING is similar

I posted this on Twitter as soon as the 18Z dropped... everything is completely different... there WILL be significant changes on a run to run basis this far out. How often do Global models nail the atmospheric conditions/ridge strength and placement etc 10+ days out? 0% of the time.

[SoupBone]

I'm posting this two run snap shot of the GFS at 240 hours as anything after is just stupid. I mean even 240 is stupid but look at the difference from 12z around the basin. Don't assume anything from these global models. Just like with 500mb steering we were talking about earlier in the day.

http://i.ibb.co/mzZ3KPH/Diff.gif

Yea saw that.. but you’d think at that latitude it’s bound to catch a ridge which it does heading NW. parade of trofs up there waiting to turn it

Agree in a verbatim sense, but my point includes the whole basin. NOTHING is similar

It's why I laughed at wxman's post today but all kinds of people were thinking he was serious.

[Hammy]

Is it me or are the models backing off a bit on the number of storms in the forecast period? GFS dropped the Gulf system (very probably a good thing if it holds), they've backed off of 97L and the second MDR system about a week out is gone.

Was there a Kelvin wave moving through that the models were taking as a longer term trend and overdoing the activity a bit? It's a bit peculiar especially given they aren't really reducing the intensity of the ones that remain.

[IcyTundra]

Is it me or are the models backing off a bit on the number of storms in the forecast period? GFS dropped the Gulf system (very probably a good thing if it holds), they've backed off of 97L and the second MDR system about a week out is gone.

Was there a Kelvin wave moving through that the models were taking as a longer term trend and overdoing the activity a bit? It's a bit peculiar especially given they aren't really reducing the intensity of the ones that remain.

I think the 18Z GFS develops the 2nd Carribean storm still but it is very weak and dissipates over Cuba.

[IcyTundra]

Last two runs the GFS has failed to develop the potential Carribean system much I guess the conditions aren't very favorable in the recent GFS runs. Maybe it is a TD but it's not much and it dissipates near or over Cuba.



Looks like the CMC still wants to develop the Carribean system though.

[Steve]

Last two runs the GFS has failed to develop the potential Carribean system much I guess the conditions aren't very favorable in the recent GFS runs. Maybe it is a TD but it's not much and it dissipates near or over Cuba.

https://i.ibb.co/GkdRD68/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh126-168.gif

Looks like the CMC still wants to develop the Carribean system though.

https://i.ibb.co/9Yd7z7f/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh96-180.gif

Doom.

[Hammy]

GFS shows the second Caribbean once again. It seems like it did the same as it did with Ida--it was somehow correct that development would occur, but was developing it purely from the monsoon trough, but recalibrated so to speak and now shows a wave moving into the area being the primary catalyst.

It still seems to dissipate it fairly quickly out to 150h.

[Kohlecane]

GFS shows the second Caribbean once again. It seems like it did the same as it did with Ida--it was somehow correct that development would occur, but was developing it purely from the monsoon trough, but recalibrated so to speak and now shows a wave moving into the area being the primary catalyst.

It still seems to dissipate it fairly quickly out to 150h.

wants something in 5 days but poof after 150 like you said, I will say the timing of the very long trough coming through might leave something behind especially if there is a vort sitting around, just throwing stuff out there, would have to look through all the patterns on the models just basing it off standard precip&mslp

[StPeteMike]

GFS has been back and forth between development around the 3rd. GFS had Ida as weak TS on the Sunday 0z, also had it crashing into the Belize/Yucatán area and then BoC around where Grace went. So models still have time to figure out the environment of the Caribbean after Ida and what could form in the Caribbean in 6 days.

[AlphaToOmega]

The rest of August and the beginning of September seem very active. Global and hurricane models on Tropical Tidbits show more activity in the next few days.

1. The 12Z GFS shows Hurricane Ida developing into a 955 millibar major hurricane. It shows Invest 98L developing on 2021-08-28 to become Tropical Storm Julian. The model then shows another Caribbean storm developing on 2021-09-01: Tropical Storm Kate. It shows a potential Cape Verde storm developing on 2021-09-03 to become Tropical Storm Larry, intensifying it into a 974 millibar hurricane.
2. The 12Z CMC shows Hurricane Ida developing into a 984 millibar hurricane. Then it shows Invest 97L and Invest 98L becoming Tropical Storms Julian and Kate both on 2021-08-30 respectively. It shows a wave developing in Africa and a wave developing in the Caribbean both on 2021-09-02; the one near Cape Verde becomes Tropical Storm Larry, and the one in the Caribbean becomes Tropical Storm Mindy. Larry intensifies into a 986 millibar hurricane, and Mindy intensifies into a 987 millibar hurricane.
3. The 12Z ICON shows Hurricane Ida developing into a 950 millibar major hurricane. It develops Invests 97L and 98L developing into Tropical Storms Julian and Kate respectively; Tropical Storm Julian develops on 2021-08-29, and Tropical Storm Kate develops on 2021-08-30. It then develops a tropical wave into a Cape Verde storm on 2021-09-02.
4. The 12Z HWRF shows Hurricane Ida developing into a 938 millibar major hurricane, Invest 97L developing into a 993 millibar hurricane, Hurricane Julian; and it shown Invest 98L developing into a 987 millibar hurricane, Hurricane Kate.

[cycloneye]

You can now post the model runs for wave that will emerge West Africa in the thread for it.

Tropical Wave to emerge West Africa next week

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z EPS is hinting at another system trying to form in the SW Caribbean Sea in 5 days or less.

[IcyTundra]

The 12z EPS is hinting at another system trying to form in the SW Caribbean Sea in 5 days or less.

Operational CMC has been showing it along with good support from the GEPS. The operational GFS and the GEFS seem to be the least enthused out of the major models, but the operational GFS still shows a weak short lived TS forming and the GEFS has a decent amount of members showing development.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z EPS is hinting at another system trying to form in the SW Caribbean Sea in 5 days or less.

Operational CMC has been showing it along with good support from the GEPS. The operational GFS and the GEFS seem to be the least enthused out of the major models, but the operational GFS still shows a weak short lived TS forming and the GEFS has a decent amount of members showing development.

I am thinking that if anything gets going, this storm will be more of a threat to the northwestern Gulf.

[IcyTundra]

Eric Webb talking about what some of the models have been showing for next week.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431679649004679168

[Cpv17]

Eric Webb talking about what some of the models have been showing for next week.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1431679649004679168

Looks like it could get going in the same spot as Ida did. Interesting. The EPS had a decent amount of some fairly strong members. Also, the western Gulf is untapped.

[SFLcane]

Global models are still Meh other then that cv quick recurve. I would expect them to eventually get much more active considering the potent kelvin wave overhead and just climo wise being close to peak.

We shall see

[toad strangler]

Global models are still Meh other then that cv quick recurve. I would expect them to eventually get much more active considering the potent kelvin wave overhead and just climo wise being close to peak.

We shall see

Good to see you Adrian!
We have 9 weeks left as far as the CONUS and specifically the Florida peninsula is concerned.