Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/755765441163698176

[WPBWeather]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/755765441163698176

But what DOES it say then??

[tolakram]

How about ...

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/755796670558855168

[Ntxw]

Thats because SST's there are naturally a little cooler, from 26-27C to 28-30C makes a difference between storm or no storm.

[RL3AO]

Eric and Phil were on the same page.

Eric was talking with a few others about how the western Atlantic being record warm does not mean an active season and how the MDR being warm helps weaken the Atlantic TUTT. Phil then posted the graphic agreeing with what Eric said that Atlantic activity is closely associated with how cool or warm the MDR is.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A little off topic but anyone care to take a guess when the season will actually get going?

I personally am leaning toward not at all this season.

Looking at long range models and the patterns they show it seems nothing really changes. Plenty of dry air and increasing shear. Could we actually have a quieter season than 2013?

[Bocadude85]

A little off topic but anyone care to take a guess when the season will actually get going?

I personally am leaning toward not at all this season.

Looking at long range models and the patterns they show it seems nothing really changes. Plenty of dry air and increasing shear. Could we actually have a quieter season than 2013?

The 2013 hurricane season may have been slow in terms of hurricanes and ace but it still featured 13 storms. It's only July, can we please stop with all the season cancel posts? Models are not very accurate 16 days out. Let's see how August goes before we start saying the season will be slow.

[tolakram]

A little off topic but anyone care to take a guess when the season will actually get going?

I personally am leaning toward not at all this season.

Looking at long range models and the patterns they show it seems nothing really changes. Plenty of dry air and increasing shear. Could we actually have a quieter season than 2013?

14/2/0?

I think it gets going in mid to late August, I have doubts about any earlier. I think it will be a fairly normal season, just as forecast. I'm sticking with my poll numbers of 12/7/2 though it will probably end up more like 15/7/2 or similar with more tropical storms.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A little off topic but anyone care to take a guess when the season will actually get going?

I personally am leaning toward not at all this season.

Looking at long range models and the patterns they show it seems nothing really changes. Plenty of dry air and increasing shear. Could we actually have a quieter season than 2013?

14/2/0?

I think it gets going in mid to late August, I have doubts about any earlier. I think it will be a fairly normal season, just as forecast. I'm sticking with my poll numbers of 12/7/2 though it will probably end up more like 15/7/2 or similar with more tropical storms.

Thanks for your update on it.

[RL3AO]

Maybe the season will be quieter than expected, but the Atlantic being somewhat unfavorable in July is certainly not evidence of it. It's climatology.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/755760437287800834

[TheStormExpert]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

[Hammy]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

I'd give it another month personally. In 1999 we had 12/8/6, with several landfalling hurricanes. And that being said, not a single storm (and only a 12-hour depression) formed between June 18 and August 18. My analog is 1998 and even in that year, from the start of the season until August 18, there was only a single tropical storm in late July, and that said I'm sticking to my prediction of absolutely nothing at all before around Aug 18-20 time frame.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

I have mentioned my numbers before but will say it again 10/3/1 total numbers the whole season.

[JaxGator]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

I have mentioned my numbers before but will say it again 10/3/1 total numbers the whole season.

If you say so but I doubt that.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

On this date in 2004, we were still waiting on our first named storm. By the end of the season, nearly 3,300 people were dead and the damage total was over $57 billion.

On this date in 1950, we were still waiting on our first named storm. By the end of the season, the ACE count had reached 211, one of the highest values on record.

All this talk about the season being a bust needs to vanish. It's July 21. We have already seen 4 named storms prior to the climatological date for our 2nd. A July lull is not uncommon, nor is it a sign that things are a bust. After Alex, all 2010 saw was a bunch of weak tropical depressions and tropical storms until the development of Danielle in late August.

Conditions are becoming more favorable. Shear has lowered across the Atlantic, basin-wide pressures are falling, and ocean temperatures are warming. The season is far from over.

[Hammy]

I'll give the models another week or two before calling a dud. I mean if the models still show nothing for the mid-late August period than chances are it will be very quiet.

Right now my total numbers are 14/7/3 with an ACE of 108. 8/3/1 with an ACE of 40 or lower is quite possible if models don't pick up on any storms or a pattern change within the next couple weeks.

I have mentioned my numbers before but will say it again 10/3/1 total numbers the whole season.

But July and poorly-initialized forecast models are not an indicator--going back further 1984 reached August 25 with no named storms--excluding December, the season still produced 11/4/1 after that point. It's quite a bad idea to use a two-week snapshot of models during what has lately become the slowest month of the season as a strong indicator of the following 10+ weeks. I still say give it until August 20 as that's the sort of year we're going to have. By then we'll have a better idea if it's another 1998 or another 1983.

[tolakram]

Folks (this is not directed at any individual or post),

people are entitle to their opinion, weather (pun) some of us like those opinions or not. What will be moderated is posts that violate Storm2K standards, including trolling with duplicate or inflammatory statements. Season Cancel posts are something we have to deal with every year, and most of the time it's the responses to season cancel that cause most of the problems. Stay civil, give your opinions, and disagree with others but avoid getting personal.

In addition, please avoid posting the same thing over and over again without any new data to back it up. If you think it's going to be a fast or slow season you don't have to let everyone know every day.

Thanks!

[Hammy]

Question to those who were around tracking storms at the time: What were conditions across the Atlantic (SSTs, shear, moisture/SAL, etc) like at this time in 1988, the season that followed the last two-year Nino? I'm still digging through the archives and noticed nothing until August, then two weak storms, then nothing again until near the end of the month. How could this season compare?

[srainhoutx]

Question to those who were around tracking storms at the time: What were conditions across the Atlantic (SSTs, shear, moisture/SAL, etc) like at this time in 1988, the season that followed the last two-year Nino? I'm still digging through the archives and noticed nothing until August, then two weak storms, then nothing again until near the end of the month. How could this season compare?

1988 started unusually slow with shear across the MDR and Caribbean rather high and numerous tropical waves moved off Africa and diminished as they trekked West in the mean Easterly flow. Early August the pattern changed and a flurry of Tropical Cyclones developed close to shore along the Gulf Coast and culminated with Major Hurricane Gilbert that went through Rapid Intensification in the Caribbean Sea and held the record of the lowest barometric pressure recorded by Reconnaissance until Wilma in 2005.

[Emmett_Brown]

It's been a while since I posted... just moved back to FL, so getting ready to track storms again! I don't have any scientific info to back this up, but if my memory serves me, it remember La Nina seasons (which this season may be shortly) tend to get off to a slow start, and then crank up later. I remember several seasons in the late 90's and early 2000's that took a while to get going... like late August or so. But, once they get going, they can be prolific storm producers.