2014 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

MJO may emerge into the Pacific into a more coherent wave in the medium to longer range, evident with WPAC activity starting to pick up likely in relation and forcing from ENSO. On a shorter scale a passage of a weak KW may enhance some activity to start October week 1 in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of
southeastern Mexico later this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this low while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

10%-60%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles offshore of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador
are associated with an area of disturbed weather. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while this system
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS brings this near MX, before pulling away and becoming a hurricane.

[somethingfunny]

For those of you keeping score and hoping to go Greek, 2014's named storm count has fallen to 3rd place currently among EPAC seasons. 1992 (reached Z) already had its' T storm by now and will reach V on October 1st. 1985 (reached X) already had its' V storm by now, but would only see 2 more storms.

With Simon looking like a good bet before October 1, and an approaching KW likely to stimulate Trudy and Vance within the next 2 weeks, I think 2014 will likely reach at least Winnie or Xavier, and if we're lucky Yolanda, but Zeke and Alpha appear unlikely at this pace.

The monsoon trough will typically set up over Central America and develop storms in the Western Caribbean in October, but with the way this season has been going I would not be surprised to see it launch a major October hurricane on the EPAC side instead.

[Ntxw]

Rachel becomes 11th straight Hurricane and 13th total. What else is new right?

[Yellow Evan]

For those of you keeping score and hoping to go Greek, 2014's named storm count has fallen to 3rd place currently among EPAC seasons. 1992 (reached Z) already had its' T storm by now and will reach V on October 1st. 1985 (reached X) already had its' V storm by now, but would only see 2 more storms.

With Simon looking like a good bet before October 1, and an approaching KW likely to stimulate Trudy and Vance within the next 2 weeks, I think 2014 will likely reach at least Winnie or Xavier, and if we're lucky Yolanda, but Zeke and Alpha appear unlikely at this pace.

The monsoon trough will typically set up over Central America and develop storms in the Western Caribbean in October, but with the way this season has been going I would not be surprised to see it launch a major October hurricane on the EPAC side instead.

I've said this before somewhere, but I think there has been too many code red busts to go father than V or W. Imagine where we would be had 90E (in May, the forgotten pre-season invest), 95E (mid-June invest), 98E (mid-July invest), 93E (late July invest), 94C (late Aug nvest near Karina, would have had an epic track), and 16E. Had they hypothetically been TS's, we'd be at Y by now.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles offshore of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador
are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS dropped this the past two runs. Again, due to lack of divergence. It's at the stage, much like how the GFS dropped Rachael for a while just prior to be invest'd.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the coast of
southeastern Mexico southward for several hundred miles are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form around the middle part of the week
while the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Ntxw]

2014 has passed 1982's ACE. 1997 is 6 points away (and likely to do it), and once that happens it will then get into top 10 most active seasons. 1991 and 1994 would be next in line.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS not bullish with this, but it'll defy the odds like Rachael and Norbert.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[Ntxw]

So, EPAC gets another Hurricane 12th in a row, 14th total Simon.

[TheStormExpert]

So, EPAC gets another Hurricane 12th in a row, 14th total Simon.

NHC says it's the 13th hurricane of the season.

[Ntxw]

So, EPAC gets another Hurricane 12th in a row, 14th total Simon.

NHC says it's the 13th hurricane of the season.

It's 14th with Genevieve which they categorize with CPAC. I like to go by ACE which keeps both together. We don't split the WPAC so personally I wouldn't split the EPAC either. So to be politically correct, 13th total for defined EPAC 14th for CPAC+EPAC there

[Yellow Evan]

So, EPAC gets another Hurricane 12th in a row, 14th total Simon.

NHC says it's the 13th hurricane of the season.

NHC refuses to count CPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a quiet spell coming up with nothing in sights after Simon. In this case, I agree.

[Ntxw]

GFS has a quiet spell coming up with nothing in sights after Simon. In this case, I agree.

For next week I'd agree as well, but towards the end of the period big Kelvin wave currently crossing WPAC will make it's way into the EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a quiet spell coming up with nothing in sights after Simon. In this case, I agree.

For next week I'd agree as well, but towards the end of the period big Kelvin wave currently crossing WPAC will make it's way into the EPAC

Around October 9 it appears. MJO will soon follow.