2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

Teban54 · #1161 Postby **Teban54** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:54 pm

Hammy wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1536338688984088577?s=20&t=c6MEFy2xKT5TT6SdXKddAg

Another takeaway that probably needs more attention is how much farther north the ITCZ is on this year's forecast compared to the last two, and that large area of below normal precip in the MDR is gone.

Wasn't the ITCZ too far north in 2020 and sent storms like Paulette, Rene and Vicky into cooler waters (combined with the TUTT)? I'm curious how C3S still forecast the below normal precipitation in the MDR despite a northward displaced ITCZ in reality (even though the relatively lackluster MDR activity did verify).

aspen · #1162 Postby **aspen** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:23 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1536338688984088577?s=20&t=c6MEFy2xKT5TT6SdXKddAg

Another takeaway that probably needs more attention is how much farther north the ITCZ is on this year's forecast compared to the last two, and that large area of below normal precip in the MDR is gone.

Wasn't the ITCZ too far north in 2020 and sent storms like Paulette, Rene and Vicky into cooler waters (combined with the TUTT)? I'm curious how C3S still forecast the below normal precipitation in the MDR despite a northward displaced ITCZ in reality (even though the relatively lackluster MDR activity did verify).

If the ITCZ is even further north in ASO 2022 than in 2020, then I highly doubt we’d get the high-ACE MDR season that Webb and others are expecting based on other indicators. While strong ridging is forecast, that was the case for 2020 and 2021, and look how well those verified. Maybe we’ll see another 2020-esqe ASO with a +AMO but lackluster MDR activity due to a northerly-displaced ITCZ.

#1163 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:48 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536412822623633413?s=20&t=1pM5_3DweDTHuornVq-DMw

Interesting, his 2018 / 2019 point is EXACTLY what I was talking about earlier IRT seasons with HIGH ACE generally having a ton of sea days.

Careful though just for comparison purposes look at the wet anomalies and 500mb for 2017 vs 2022. :double:

2017 steering...

2022 steering...

2017 precip anomalies

2022 precip anomalies...

#1164 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536412822623633413?s=20&t=1pM5_3DweDTHuornVq-DMw

Interesting, his 2018 / 2019 point is EXACTLY what I was talking about earlier IRT seasons with HIGH ACE generally having a ton of sea days.

Careful though just for comparison purposes look at the wet anomalies and 500mb for 2017 vs 2022.

2017 steering...

https://i.postimg.cc/ncbqwxFn/2017steering.png

2022 steering...

https://i.postimg.cc/W1HMQG3g/z500.png

2017 precip anomalies

https://i.postimg.cc/FsN7LHFk/precip2017.png

2022 precip anomalies...

https://i.postimg.cc/TwvRvtp5/precip2022.png

2017 would be about right with this ridiculous drought going on now in Texas. I could see another Harvey happening or Don. Lol

skyline385 · #1165 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:What are third year cold ENSO specifically like for Atlantic hurricane seasons? There are 3 definitive since 1950, but rather small sample size. All three nest within a -PDO.

1956
1975
2000

Reiterate very small sample size, doesn't come around often. You do have some cold neutrals but I won't include those in this post. The Ninas after Ninos tend to be the biggest hitters more consistently like 1998, 2005, 2017, 2020 etc.

This partly goes back to the comment I made a few days ago that historically ENSO isn't static and even if we remain in La Nina or ENSO -ve territory, simply the beginning of the transition towards neutral or Nino could cap the Atlantic off based on previous records.

The fact that the biggest hitters have been transition seasons from Nino to Nina highlights the same.

#1166 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:33 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:What are third year cold ENSO specifically like for Atlantic hurricane seasons? There are 3 definitive since 1950, but rather small sample size. All three nest within a -PDO.

1956
1975
2000

Reiterate very small sample size, doesn't come around often. You do have some cold neutrals but I won't include those in this post. The Ninas after Ninos tend to be the biggest hitters more consistently like 1998, 2005, 2017, 2020 etc.

This partly goes back to the comment I made a few days ago that historically ENSO isn't static and even if we remain in La Nina or ENSO -ve territory, simply the beginning of the transition towards neutral or Nino could cap the Atlantic off based on previous records.

The fact that the biggest hitters have been transition seasons from Nino to Nina highlights the same.

One year that transitioned from Nina to neutral and still featured above-average activity was 2008. While that year was not hyperactive, it still featured 5 major hurricanes which was on the high end of NOAA's forecast in May.

skyline385 · #1167 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:55 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:What are third year cold ENSO specifically like for Atlantic hurricane seasons? There are 3 definitive since 1950, but rather small sample size. All three nest within a -PDO.

1956
1975
2000

Reiterate very small sample size, doesn't come around often. You do have some cold neutrals but I won't include those in this post. The Ninas after Ninos tend to be the biggest hitters more consistently like 1998, 2005, 2017, 2020 etc.

This partly goes back to the comment I made a few days ago that historically ENSO isn't static and even if we remain in La Nina or ENSO -ve territory, simply the beginning of the transition towards neutral or Nino could cap the Atlantic off based on previous records.

The fact that the biggest hitters have been transition seasons from Nino to Nina highlights the same.

One year that transitioned from Nina to neutral and still featured above-average activity was 2008. While that year was not hyperactive, it still featured 5 major hurricanes which was on the high end of NOAA's forecast in May.

Yea, 2008 was brought up in my previous discussion too lol. And while it had 5 major hurricanes and ended up being very destructive, the ACE was only 142 which is above average and nowhere close to the seasons like 2005, 2017 and 2020.

I said it back then too, i have no doubt that we will have an above average season based on the current conditions (my prediction in the poll was 22/13/5 even though i sound bearish at times lol) but that the chances of an extremely hyperactive or historical season are kinda low.

#1168 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:08 pm

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1536452700505657344

#1169 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:20 pm

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1536452716125294592

#1170 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:21 pm

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1536452724434141184

#1171 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:22 pm

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1536452733263261696

#1172 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:23 pm

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1536452759041372160

#1173 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:27 pm

Again…

Yeah that is a fairly nasty z500 look.

Teban54 · #1174 Postby **Teban54** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:31 pm

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Another takeaway that probably needs more attention is how much farther north the ITCZ is on this year's forecast compared to the last two, and that large area of below normal precip in the MDR is gone.

Wasn't the ITCZ too far north in 2020 and sent storms like Paulette, Rene and Vicky into cooler waters (combined with the TUTT)? I'm curious how C3S still forecast the below normal precipitation in the MDR despite a northward displaced ITCZ in reality (even though the relatively lackluster MDR activity did verify).

If the ITCZ is even further north in ASO 2022 than in 2020, then I highly doubt we’d get the high-ACE MDR season that Webb and others are expecting based on other indicators. While strong ridging is forecast, that was the case for 2020 and 2021, and look how well those verified. Maybe we’ll see another 2020-esqe ASO with a +AMO but lackluster MDR activity due to a northerly-displaced ITCZ.

To clarify, I was saying the C3S forecast for 2020 showed a southward displaced ITCZ as per the wet zone. The actual ITCZ that verified ended up being further north than the forecast.

But the ITCZ forecast for 2021 was spot on. And even in 2020 with the wrong ITCZ position, C3S did correctly predict the relative lack of MDR activity (as per precip anomalies, where the correlation itself might be questionableas seen from 2017).

#1175 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:33 pm

Wow Adrian :crazyeyes:

#1176 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:17 pm

Ok folks!!! :crazyeyes:

I have nothing left to say but get ready Florida.

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1536464916894429185

Category5Kaiju · #1177 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:Ok folks!!!

I have nothing left to say but get ready Florida.

https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1536464916894429185?s=21&t=zs8iUc7v7xQonnSK8-zgyA

Yo whoa, the entire state of Florida is crimson. I have never seen a gust map like that that red before.

skyline385 · #1178 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:25 pm

I mean if you look at previous years plots you can see tons of spots where the graphic was horribly wrong. 2020 in particular should have been easy mode seeing the number of landfalls LA had and yet it was blue to dark blue.

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aspen · #1179 Postby **aspen** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:37 pm

skyline385 wrote:I mean if you look at previous years plots you can see tons of spots where the graphic was horribly wrong. 2020 in particular should have been easy mode seeing the number of landfalls LA had and yet it was blue to dark blue.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/0cb3e20b2b77b44cf2c2e0b0f8a2633b.jpg

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2018 was spot-on for Florence and Michael.

2017’s NE Caribbean and 2019’s Bahamas forecasts verified very, VERY poorly.

#1180 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:38 pm

skyline385 wrote:I mean if you look at previous years plots you can see tons of spots where the graphic was horribly wrong. 2020 in particular should have been easy mode seeing the number of landfalls LA had and yet it was blue to dark blue.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/0cb3e20b2b77b44cf2c2e0b0f8a2633b.jpg

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Being June now and closer to ASO so skill level is much better. That’s a lot of red over Florida