TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

The Pros. would also realize that the important "last step" of the scientific method is peer review, skepticism, debate, discussion, which inspires progress. Science cannot advance if an expert's word is immediately taken as gospel.

I'm a scientist turned economist (which is a "social science"). To tear a page out of economic theory, allowing pros. to rest on their credentials creates disincentive for them. They are less pressured and thus less inclined to question themselves, their methodology, and their findings. A good skeptic (meaning skepticism well placed) is a Pareto improvement, meaning it benefits all sides. If the skeptic is incorrect, he/she has learned something new. If the Pro. is incorrect, he/she has attained new knowledge. The third party (e.g. public receiving the forecast) is better off because this new knowledge translates into better understanding meaning better predictions for them in the future.

So question away! Don't question for the sake of opposing a pro, but definitely question when the issue merits it.

thank you, i am a meteorology student and continuing to learn as i question, and will continue to do so

[KeyLargoDave]

Yep, agree, questioning is good, and always has been welcomed here IMO.

Minute-by-minute, degree-by-degree discussions can be a little pointless though. It takes a while to see the big picture, and time will tell

(jeez, sounding like my dad there).

[artist]

I would respectfully disagree there, Ivanhater, possibly not intentionally. Remember that sometimes our words on a board may not always sound as we wish them to come across, therefore we really need to re-read before we post and see if it could possibly be misread, particularly in the heat of the moment. Does that make sense? I just hate to see the squabbling that starts in here sometimes, particularly knowing that neither party probably is even realizing how they are coming across. And I honestly feel noone has meant o hurt anyones feelings, but it is obvious many felt that way. And even if the other person doesn't resppond quite the way you would like, at least respond BACK the way you wish they would have- that is the bigger thing to do. I will shut up now. Thanks for listening and hope noone takes this the wrong way.

[pcolaguy]

I thought this thread was about Irene comments, model plots and sat pics????

What's up with all the arguing. Lets get back to business.

Well you must be new then, I mean think about it, alot of talk in this thread is about where it's going, of course people are gonna disagree, and thus argue. This whole attitude of "omg this is a weather board lets all agree with each other and sing kumbaya around a campfire" gets on my nerves, I say what better point of this thread then to argue and back up the argument? Then people can perhaps see things in a new light they wouldn't have seen the situation in otherwise.

[artist]

Last comment - disrespectful arguing is one thing -disagreeing is another. Promise that is the end!

[artist]

Now what about Irene?

[pcolaguy]

Now what about Irene?

Still moving west, nothing new. Convection is steady, what little there is of it.

[artist]

Ivan - think you were saying you thought you could see the center now, can you still?

[KeyLargoDave]

The blob keeps growing, now 1:45 to 4:45 UTC convective...blob.

[Ivanhater]

if not going along with a pro is being disrespectful, then im guilty...i dont know any other way to put it...i have not and will not conform to anyones thinking just because they have a degree....if i see something different i will pose the question and debate it, and will continue to do so, so with that back to irene

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can see a center but its closer to 24/56....Convection has become much better organized.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan - think you were saying you thought you could see the center now, can you still?

i think the convection is moving over it, did you look at my link and try to find it... i could be wrong so id like other peoples opinion

[artist]

I wasn't sure if I saw it or not - seemed it might be under the edge of the west convection if it's there! lol

[KeyLargoDave]

I personally didn't see any turning in the loop, just the expanding convection, but the winds indicate circulation, if my eyes aren't getting blurry...

[artist]

My eyes are so tired I feel I've been seeing double of everything! lol Think it's time to call it a night! Thanks for listening guys.

[Ivanhater]

I wasn't sure if I saw it or not - seemed it might be under the edge of the west convection if it's there! lol

lol, i think were all getting tired...but thats what the coffee is for...haaa

[artist]

see my post above your last one! Good night all!

[Ivanhater]

i think we found the center folks, just west of the convection that is shooting over it

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to become better organized. Convection is blowing up fast near or over the LLC. In which you can see the lower clouds move around/inflow come in from the south. With any luck we will find that a new LLC has developed by morning.

[KeyLargoDave]

Check the other channels. Very unclear to me that there's a surface low; some high blowoff. Could still be just an open wave with thunderstorms expanding up at this point. Water vapor is interesting, a bit more moisture coming down from the north perhaps, but still a dry wall to the west.