Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[tina25]

If this verifies it really needs to start ramping up tomorrow.

[Evil Jeremy]

I am still surprised at the 10% the NHC is giving this with all it's model support. I say bump it up to 30% at 2 AM. If they're wrong, they're wrong. If they're right, they could get people's attention sooner. We should have this invested by now to get some dedicated GFDL and HWRF runs going.

I agree and that has been my thinking also. With the GFS really bullish on the 00Z, assuming other 00Z models are they HAVE to bump it and tag this as an invest already.

Isn't an invest defined as an area of interest that could develop? I say this fits the description nicely...

Gatorcane, how strong do you think this system could get? I am supposed to drive up to Jacksonville on Friday, down to Orlando on Saturday, and back to Fort Lauderdale on Sunday, but the chances of that happening seem to be decreasing lol.

[Vortex]

H60 over lower keys...a little stronger


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif

A 997 "GFS" depicted low could easily be a hurricane.... (just something to ponder...)

Thank you eric....A 997 on GFS often translates to a 987-990mb...typically threshold for cat 1

[jpigott]

This latest GFS run looks erily similar to an Irene type track

[gatorcane]

Don't know about you guys but the Western Caribbean looks ripe for exploding convection at DMAX later tonight. With low pressures and plenty of energy on each side of the Western Caribbean in the Monsoon Gyre, I think convection pops later on.......

[SFLcane]

I really hope people are paying close attention...its not going to get sheared out to the NE until its making landfall over south florida...IMO it will have sufficient time to become a strong TS or Cat 1....

I agree with this...South of 25n conditions aloft might be favorable for a strong ts or even a minimal cane.

[boca]

Their is alot of banding type convection poping aroundJjamaica something gotta give to give these models some credit.I agree something has to start forming tomorrow for the GFS to verify.If nothing develops this might be the biggest plunder of the season.

[CourierPR]

I am still surprised at the 10% the NHC is giving this with all it's model support. I say bump it up to 30% at 2 AM. If they're wrong, they're wrong. If they're right, they could get people's attention sooner. We should have this invested by now to get some dedicated GFDL and HWRF runs going.

I agree and that has been my thinking also. With the GFS really bullish on the 00Z, assuming other 00Z models are they HAVE to bump it and tag this as an invest already.

Isn't an invest defined as an area of interest that could develop? I say this fits the description nicely...

Just a few posts previously you said the convection was clearing out of the NW Caribbean.

[Vortex]

Where not done yet...part 2 south of central cuba develops another low off the monsoon low.


H84



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

[boca]

Gatorcane is allowed to change his mind I've looked at sat pics made mistakes and moved on.Lets see if convection increses with the Dmax.

[cycloneye]

All the players in one loop.

[Vortex]

H90 over central cuba....this would be some week for FL if this form and rides north...this one could also stall around south FL as heights build to the north....well see...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal090.gif

[Vortex]

H120 unreal we get otto moving just to the east of fl and paula forms over the NW carribean all yes in 5 days



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Vortex]

H126...what a week ahead.....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[Vortex]

H144 paula strenthening over NW carribean

[SFLcane]

H120 unreal we get otto moving just to the east of fl and paula forms over the NW carribean all yes in 5 days



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Still think its convective issues.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFS is seriously adamant about developing 3 systems.. it just seem way to ridiculous

[Vortex]

convective feeback issues 95% of the time present themselves with a red bullseye....I did some research on that recently

[Aric Dunn]

H120 unreal we get otto moving just to the east of fl and paula forms over the NW carribean all yes in 5 days



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Still think its convective issues.

yes the GFS does have convective feed back problems.. but i have never seen nearly all models do the same thing.. especially the EURO... there is probably going to be some similar scenario .. exactly what extent I dont know..

[SFLcane]

convective feeback issues 95% of the time present themselves with a red bullseye....I did some research on that recently

Yea moderate cane in sfl.