Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[tolakram]

What is the chance for all of July?

Are you asking me to count all the dots for you?

I googled the question and came up with this:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... y-atlantic

From 1950-2015, 63 named storms formed in July, averaging out to about one named storm in July each year. Incidentally, the Atlantic season's first named storm will have formed by the second week of July in a typical season.

Of those named storms from 1950-2015, 27 strengthened to hurricanes, for an average of one July hurricane every two to three years.

Major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, in July are rare. Only five major hurricanes have flared during the hurricane season's second month since 1950.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What is the chance for all of July?

Are you asking me to count all the dots for you?

I googled the question and came up with this:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... y-atlantic

From 1950-2015, 63 named storms formed in July, averaging out to about one named storm in July each year. Incidentally, the Atlantic season's first named storm will have formed by the second week of July in a typical season.

Of those named storms from 1950-2015, 27 strengthened to hurricanes, for an average of one July hurricane every two to three years.

Major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, in July are rare. Only five major hurricanes have flared during the hurricane season's second month since 1950.

Yeah I need you to count them all.

Thanks for the info.

[ninel conde]

A multi-year trough? WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN? It's July. The jet stream is in Canada. The annual summer ridge has set up across the southern US. Where else can the troughs possibly be except propagating through Canada?

pull up wapor loop of w atl
trof easy to see
twc clearly shows jet stream diving south thru w atl

[RL3AO]

A multi-year trough? WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN? It's July. The jet stream is in Canada. The annual summer ridge has set up across the southern US. Where else can the troughs possibly be except propagating through Canada?

pull up wapor loop of w atl
trof easy to see
twc clearly shows jet stream diving south thru w atl

And in three days there will be a ridge. Three days after that a trough. Because trough and ridges propagate with the jet stream on this planet.

[chaser1]

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic



So over 158 years we've had 13 storms form in the deep tropics east of the islands. I count about 50 storms total, so there's aprox a 32% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during July 21st to the 31st.

What is the chance for all of July?

After taking a bit more of a look at the various differrent model products I decided just for fun, to take a stab at a near to mid term forecast on Tropical development in the Atlantic.
I'd project a 60% chance that a tropical depression forms between 30W - 45W or 70W - 90W (and South of 20N) in the coming days between July 27-31. I'd probably lean higher odds of 65% that a depression forms between 65W - 80W and from 15N - 30N, between July 28 - Aug. 6. Finally, I'd guess a 75% chance that a Tropical Depression or stronger makes landfall somewhere in the basin south of 35N, between July 25 - Aug. 6. Any takers?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic



So over 158 years we've had 13 storms form in the deep tropics east of the islands. I count about 50 storms total, so there's aprox a 32% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during July 21st to the 31st.

What is the chance for all of July?

After taking a bit more of a look at the various differrent model products I decided just for fun, to take a stab at a near to mid term forecast on Tropical development in the Atlantic.
I'd project a 60% chance that a tropical depression forms between 30W - 45W or 70W - 90W (and South of 20N) in the coming days between July 27-31. I'd probably lean higher odds of 65% that a depression forms between 65W - 80W and from 15N - 30N, between July 28 - Aug. 6. Finally, I'd guess a 75% chance that a Tropical Depression or stronger makes landfall somewhere in the basin south of 35N, between July 25 - Aug. 6. Any takers?

TS or higher and you have a bet. Me being on the not happening side I could see a TD form. TD could form anywhere anytime.

[xcool22]

what causes the atlantic hurricane season not really Activity anymore but why ???? I know july ,,



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[fendie]

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic



So over 158 years we've had 13 storms form in the deep tropics east of the islands. I count about 50 storms total, so there's aprox a 32% chance of a named storm forming in the Atlantic during July 21st to the 31st.

To be clear, according to the graphic 32% of storms developing in the Atlantic basin between 7/21-7/31 undergo genesis east of the islands. This of course does not mean there's a 32% chance of a storm forming east of the islands between 7/21-7/31.

The graphic also depicts about 10% more storms in the Pacific basin than the Atlantic basin from 7/21/7-31.

I would be interested to see what those ratios look like during the first three weeks of July and the first two weeks of August. I guess I could click the link, huh?!

[TheAustinMan]

To also put some perspective... here is each month's contribution of accumulated cyclone energy to an average season ("average" meaning it is at the 50th percentile of ACE at all times of the year).

[tolakram]

To be clear, according to the graphic 32% of storms developing in the Atlantic basin between 7/21-7/31 undergo genesis east of the islands. This of course does not mean there's a 32% chance of a storm forming east of the islands between 7/21-7/31.

The graphic also depicts about 10% more storms in the Pacific basin than the Atlantic basin from 7/21/7-31.

I would be interested to see what those ratios look like during the first three weeks of July and the first two weeks of August. I guess I could click the link, huh?!

My percent was the total number of dots shown regardless of location / number of recorded years.

[fendie]

My percent was the total number of dots shown regardless of location / number of recorded years.

Gotcha. At what point does climatology have the Atlantic becoming more active than the Pacific?

[TheStormExpert]

This article says just how quiet the Gulf of Mexico has been when it comes to Tropical Cyclone activity over the past several seasons.

 https://twitter.com/wunderground/status/756496561450790912

[chaser1]

[/quote]After taking a bit more of a look at the various differrent model products I decided just for fun, to take a stab at a near to mid term forecast on Tropical development in the Atlantic.
I'd project a 60% chance that a tropical depression forms between 30W - 45W or 70W - 90W (and South of 20N) in the coming days between July 27-31. I'd probably lean higher odds of 65% that a depression forms between 65W - 80W and from 15N - 30N, between July 28 - Aug. 6. Finally, I'd guess a 75% chance that a Tropical Depression or stronger makes landfall somewhere in the basin south of 35N, between July 25 - Aug. 6. Any takers? [/quote]

TS or higher and you have a bet. Me being on the not happening side I could see a TD form. TD could form anywhere anytime.[/quote]

Aw.... c'mon, what's a little 1 Million dollar bet between tropical cyclone enthusiasts

[tarheelprogrammer]

After taking a bit more of a look at the various differrent model products I decided just for fun, to take a stab at a near to mid term forecast on Tropical development in the Atlantic.
I'd project a 60% chance that a tropical depression forms between 30W - 45W or 70W - 90W (and South of 20N) in the coming days between July 27-31. I'd probably lean higher odds of 65% that a depression forms between 65W - 80W and from 15N - 30N, between July 28 - Aug. 6. Finally, I'd guess a 75% chance that a Tropical Depression or stronger makes landfall somewhere in the basin south of 35N, between July 25 - Aug. 6. Any takers? [/quote]

TS or higher and you have a bet. Me being on the not happening side I could see a TD form. TD could form anywhere anytime.[/quote]

Aw.... c'mon, what's a little 1 Million dollar bet between tropical cyclone enthusiasts [/quote]

LMAO a gazillion dollars sir a gazillion

[JaxGator]

Why not? Maybe a boost.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... bal_33.png

[gatorcane]

Latest CVSv2 showing the Gulf and Western Atlantic are wetter than normal by week 3 which looks to extend into week 4 as well:

[TheAustinMan]

This article says just how quiet the Gulf of Mexico has been when it comes to Tropical Cyclone activity over the past several seasons.

Did you notice who the author was?

[Kingarabian]

Our very own Jonathan Belles!

[Huckster]

Nice article about the hurricane drought. Only thing wrong I think I saw was they might have gotten the October 1906 hurricane's dates confused with a November storm's that did not enter the Gulf.

[xcool22]

what causes the atlantic hurricane season not really Activity anymore but why ???? I know july ,,



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.