Potential in the GOM?

[Ed Mahmoud]

20 to 30 knot shear all but the NW Gulf.


Where the shear is less, upper level divergence is nil.

[srainhoutx]

People are bored

Exactly.

[jasons2k]

People are bored

Exactly.

Yep, and is usually the case until August. As Ed said earlier, it is that time of year....

[lrak]

I'm scratching my butt trying to understand why so many people don't understand the meaning of a simple word like "potential."

Let me help you:

Capable of being but not yet in existence; latent: a potential problem.

Having possibility, capability, or power.

Grammar. Of, relating to, or being a verbal construction with auxiliaries such as may or can; for example, it may snow.

[BreinLa]

Absolutely nothing to look at the GOM, the atmospheric conditions is not such for any tropical development to occur at this time. The weekend and early next week might be different story as a tropical wave enters the southern GOM & BOC.

I'm honestly scratching my head trying to figure out what people are seeing or trying to insinuate...

It's one thing to speculate on the future wave that some of the AFD's have mentioned, but there is nothing at the present to make mention of.

I personally don't see anyone trying to insinuate anything. This is a weather message board and they have either made a statement or asked a question. Isn't that what Talkin Tropics is all about.

[Stratosphere747]

Absolutely nothing to look at the GOM, the atmospheric conditions is not such for any tropical development to occur at this time. The weekend and early next week might be different story as a tropical wave enters the southern GOM & BOC.

I'm honestly scratching my head trying to figure out what people are seeing or trying to insinuate...

It's one thing to speculate on the future wave that some of the AFD's have mentioned, but there is nothing at the present to make mention of.

I personally don't see anyone trying to insinuate anything. This is a weather message board and they have either made a statement or asked a question. Isn't that what Talkin Tropics is all about.

Well when folks starting mentioning blobs as "interesting" and such, than I'm not sure how else it should be taken in a thread that is about "GOM potential." I guess we could cover our eyes and not say anything when in fact there is nothing attm that is remotely interesting if you go by a basic synoptic setup.

Nothing wrong at all with anyone musing aloud about "interesting" blobs and I personally have nothing against folks that think they see something - But in reality if there isn't anything there, well there isn't anything there and that should be communicated as well. It's not meant to suppress the conversation in "Talkin Tropics"

[Meso]

The GFS in 162 hours,a lil something in the BOC

[BreinLa]

I personally don't see anyone trying to insinuate anything. This is a weather message board and they have either made a statement or asked a question. Isn't that what Talkin Tropics is all about. [/quote]

Well when folks starting mentioning blobs as "interesting" and such, than I'm not sure how else it should be taken in a thread that is about "GOM potential." I guess we could cover our eyes and not say anything when in fact there is nothing attm that is remotely interesting if you go by a basic synoptic setup.

Nothing wrong at all with anyone musing aloud about "interesting" blobs and I personally have nothing against folks that think they see something - But in reality if there isn't anything there, well there isn't anything there and that should be communicated as well. It's not meant to suppress the conversation in "Talkin Tropics"[/quote]


Bre's response:


Oh there is absolutely nothing wrong with communicating anything about the subject. Some of us do not know what a basic synoptic setup is, just want everyone to remember that point. If we see thunderstorms in the gulf they will be questioned and hopefully someone will give us some insight on the subject, doesn't mean we are insinuating anything, just want to know what the blob is all about

[vbhoutex]

Perhaps a better response than some I have seen above would have been. "I can understand that storms over the BOC or the GOM would give rise to questions as to whether they could develop into something. However, due to the current synoptic set-up (insert a small lay person type explanation here) I do not see anything being able to develop, at least not until possibly next week when a TW is expected to enter the picture in the GOM".

What I am saying is, be sensitive to others and their possible lack of or different level of knowledge instead of "I don't see how anyone could...". Please think before you post!!!

[A1A]

Well . . . I believe this is appropriate to post - from the TWD 2:05 EDT NHC -

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W FROM
20N TO 6N IN THE E PACIFIC. BELIZE CITY UPPER AIR STATION SHOWS
THE EXPECTED E TO ESE WIND SHIFT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND
12Z TODAY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE E PACIFIC.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE TO ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATER TODAY.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E
VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 62W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SCATTERED TSTMS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
WILL REACH DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY TUE AND EASTERN CUBA EARLY
WED. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODEL...THE WAVE MAY AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED INTO THU. OBSERVATIONS E OF THE WAVE AND FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE E INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20
TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SE MEXICO ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THERE. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 91W/92W. PART OF THIS WAVE ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE EPAC
WHERE IS GENERATING SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N25W 6N34W 5N40W 5N50W INTO
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER GUINEA BISSAU AFRICA AND OVER N SOUTH
AMERICA PARTICULARLY OVER SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N
AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF REGION WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
28N89W. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF REGION. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH A COLD LOW N OF THE
AREA...CENTERED NEAR 27N61W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH ORIENTED
FROM SE TO NW. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
HAS BROKEN OUT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...FROM THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES WESTWARD THROUGH HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE
AFFECTING PARTS OF CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A HIGH JUST E OF BARBADOS COVERS N SOUTH AMERICA AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE TROPICAL WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2354.shtml?

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Canadian, Euro and GFS all suggest activity in the East Pac. This activity, if it develops, may tend to confirm what Joe Bastardi has been talking about since May, the 40 day upward motion pulse/MJO being near North America about the beginning of June, again around July 10th, and again late August.

Nothing came of it in June. Maybe, with warmer SSTs and lessening shear, early July will see something. More likely, late August will be prime time.

The 6Z GFS vorticity suggests something tries to develop in a bit under a week South of Texas, but moves inland into Mexico before it can develop.


As far as the use of the word "potential", as a native born US citizen over 35, I have potential to be President of the United States, but I wouldn't expect it.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you for your insight Brei and Irak. The entire Atlantic Basin -- as you noted -- is ripe for "potential" during the Atlantic Hurricane season. Most any "blobs" or convection charged situations could have "potential."

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from HPC Caribbean Narrative this afternoon...

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

DISCUSSION FROM JUN 24/0000 UTC. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ANALYSES
AND FORECASTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE A SINUSOIDAL PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN. IN THIS PATTERN...A RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA TO THE
WESTERN USA...WHILE A TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT
500 HPA THE RIDGE IS TO ENVELOP MEXICO NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
100W...WHILE CENTERING ON A QUASISTATIONARY HIGH NEAR 30N 107W. IN
A WEAK SUBSIDENT PATTERN...STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS TO CONTINUE FAVORING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS PART OF THE DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE...TO AFFECT
SONORA-DURANGO/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA WITH DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM AND WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10-15MM. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NAYARIT-JALISCO-MORELIA...WHERE THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK DURING THE CYCLE...TO RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM THROUGH
36 HRS...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM AT 36-60 HRS.

AT 250 HPA THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS TO BOUND BETWEEN
85W-100W AND EXTEND NORTH OF 20N. SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS/CYCLONIC VORTICES WILL REVOLVE/ROTATE AROUND THIS
AXIS...AND ARE TO GRADUALLY FAVOR FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HRS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[PTrackerLA]

Would that low be tropical in nature?

[vbhoutex]

Would that low be tropical in nature?

The million dollar question!!!! It would not be starting at the surface if I am understanding this correctly, but would definitely have the chance to work to the surface and become warm core, especially if it interacts with incoming tropical waves. If I am way off base here, mets feel free to correct me.

[boca]

Would that low be tropical in nature?

The million dollar question!!!! It would not be starting at the surface if I am understanding this correctly, but would definitely have the chance to work to the surface and become warm core, especially if it interacts with incoming tropical waves. If I am way off base here, mets feel free to correct me.

I think your right on track in my humble opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at the models (GFS, Euro, Canadian), it seems the action the next week will be in the East Pac, with possibly two storms.

Still thinking, maybe, Bastardi's theory that the next action on our side of Central America, tied to the MJO, will be centered around July 10th.


Getting sheared to all heck, but the Central Caribbean wave does look pretty impressive. If there is an East Pac system within about 15º latitude of it, however, I'd say, in my unoffical opinion, it won't develop.

[KWT]

Its interesting Ed to see the EPAC flare up just as the MJO forcing starts to come acorss, then maybe the same can be said for the Caribbean region later in early July. I don't think the MJO matters quite so much for those big cape verde waves later in the season, more for home brew activity IMO.

Still the wave in the CCar is indeed still producing decent convection despite being heavily sheared and had the shear not been so heavy we may have had to watch this system very closely, as it is nothing should come of that.

[dixiebreeze]

Really firing up all around the GOM perimeter tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg