Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[cycloneye]

Nothing in the water yet.



Note:This pass was by mid afternoon EDT.

[hawkeh]

Lets see what happens once it hits water...

[Blown Away]

On the surface, most of the audience appears to have been taught to immediately reject all contrary evidence from those who do not expect cyclogenesis. Unfortunately, this attitude has been unintentionally encouraged, and hostility toward posters who denounce development in certain cases is increasing. If this attitude continues, I will stop providing my objective analyses to this site. The "head powers" have done a nice job with the management of the site, but I feel my presence is unwarranted. Anyone who is familiar with me knows that I do not debunk or deny all probabilities for cyclogenesis. In fact, I was (initially) consistently calling for the plausible development of Arthur in the southern Caribbean Sea in late May; though the timing was incorrect and I eventually changed my views, we still witnessed it, despite doubts from others. I will undoubtedly lurk, but further posts will not occur. You will immediately realize the invaluable necessities of an objective person if illogical conclusions spiral out of control. The fact remains clear that most of the pro-development arguments are invalid, and the facts illustrated in my previous post have not been soundly addressed. It is one thing to disagree with a post's hypothesis and supporting evidence/proofs, which should be encouraged; it is an entirely different situation when the other person does not back his/her arguments with contrary data. The latter reality continues to be a predominant force on this forum. If you want to observe and scrutinize my free analyses, please see my site at http://www.freewebs.com/emdolphinwx/analyses.htm. Time and frequency of daily analyses is dependent on external factors that I can't control.
I am done. It's been an enjoyable experience over the past four seasons, but my public appearance is finally and dutifully coming to an end.

Goodbye..

I have always enjoyed and respected your posts. I think you are forgetting the "Talkin Tropics" forum is for everybody to talk Tropics regardless of their weather education. The "Tropical Analysis" forum is for the pro's. It's ok for somebody to oppose a view even if it's a hunch, gut feeling, or if Miss Cleo says so, as long as a certain level of respect is maintained. That's why this forum is so popular and almost all who are here are in the "Talkin Tropics" and not in the "Tropical Analysis". If you get upset w/ amateurs making predictions w/o any scientific basis then the "Talkin Tropics" forum may not be for you. I think there is an innocent level of anxiety building, everybody knows the storms are now only weeks away. When things get geared up us amateurs always look for honest and logical predictions from skilled individuals. So I hope you can set aside your frustration for now and come back when the season ramps up. Not every post has to make sense.

[dixiebreeze]

Sensible post, Blown_Away.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'll briefly re-enter the thread and deposit one final notice.

I have never taken any of the "illogical" or ignorant posts/forecasts to heart; this forum does not constitute my life or critical priorities. The only exception (at times) is the up to date and valuable wx information that is posted here, especially in regards to preparedness. There are numerous well rounded and heavily savvy posters here, including those from amateurs, met students, and meteorologists. Unfortunately (and regretfully), there are also several "other" anonymous posters who regularly leave their imprint of false science, poor circular reasonings, or no supporting proof for their illogical posts. They occasionally (read: often) persuade even the more rational posters to concur with them. The crux is that the pressure to "bow down" and support these types of posts from anyone has become intolerable. I feel that any well reasoned scientific response to these posts (without any personal attacks) are immediately branded as false, etc. Therefore, it is the sane decision for me to permanently abandon this forum, though I will lurk.

Adios,

Miami

[cycloneye]

All will like this loop:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

MiamiensisWx, Don't leave! I have learned a lot from your analyses, and many times it has prevented my own imagination from spiralling out of control. I don't
go crazy over every single blob now, unlike in previous years, where a
blob would fuel my hyperactivity like drugs fueling an addict. Your analyses have helped me to think more objectively, I hope you stay...

[GeneratorPower]

Wow! Check out the cold cloud tops on the latest MET sat image. That's a monster wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

(Time sensitive link)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll briefly re-enter the thread and deposit one final notice.

I have never taken any of the "illogical" or ignorant posts/forecasts to heart; this forum does not constitute my life or critical priorities. There are numerous well rounded and heavily savvy posters here, including those from amateurs, met students, and meteorologists. Unfortunately (and regretfully), there are also several "other" anonymous posters who regularly leave their imprint of false science, poor circular reasonings, or no supporting proof for their illogical posts. They occasionally (read: often) persuade even the more rational posters to concur with them. The crux is that the pressure to "bow down" and support these types of posts from anyone has become intolerable. I feel that any well reasoned scientific response to these posts (without any personal attacks) are immediately branded as false, etc. Therefore, it is the sane decision for me to permanently abandon this forum, though I will lurk.

I went back and reread page 5. I think you had a lot more science behind you than the 2 or 3 doubters/pro-development posters who followed, but I don't think they were being disrepsectful.


People who visit often know who makes scientific forecasts, and who predicts the second coming of Hurricane Dennis.

[wxman57]

Convection appears to be weakening a little this evening as the lower-level swirl moves offshore. Looks very much like the wave that moved offshore (and fell apart) a few days ago. I know a lot of you here can't wait for the next storm to develop, but don't put too much hope on this one. It's unlikely to make "invest" much less become a TD. The next 24-48 hours will tell the story. If convection falls apart completely over the next 24 hours then it's gone.

One other thing to watch is the north-south oriented upper trof between 30W-35W. This trof drew the last weak lower-level swirl NW across the Cape Verde Islands and ripped it apart. The trof is still there. Take a look at a WV loop.

[Derek Ortt]

don't discount the wave too quickly.

Conditions are just not that unfavorable (I know, it is early July). However, we have a well-defined low with some convection, that has good model support for development.

If it develops, it likely will do so within the next 48 hours (or at least show signs of development)

I do not see this at the time becoming more than a minimal TS, though as conditions may not be quite as favorable as it moves farther west

[Blown Away]

I'll briefly re-enter the thread and deposit one final notice.

I have never taken any of the "illogical" or ignorant posts/forecasts to heart; this forum does not constitute my life or critical priorities. There are numerous well rounded and heavily savvy posters here, including those from amateurs, met students, and meteorologists. Unfortunately (and regretfully), there are also several "other" anonymous posters who regularly leave their imprint of false science, poor circular reasonings, or no supporting proof for their illogical posts. They occasionally (read: often) persuade even the more rational posters to concur with them. The crux is that the pressure to "bow down" and support these types of posts from anyone has become intolerable. I feel that any well reasoned scientific response to these posts (without any personal attacks) are immediately branded as false, etc. Therefore, it is the sane decision for me to permanently abandon this forum, though I will lurk.

I went back and reread page 5. I think you had a lot more science behind you than the 2 or 3 doubters/pro-development posters who followed, but I don't think they were being disrepsectful.


People who visit often know who makes scientific forecasts, and who predicts the second coming of Hurricane Dennis.

I agree there was no intent to be disrespectful towards you. If your expectation is for all posters to be savvy then this forum is not for you, especially if the comments are impacting your sanity. I hope you reconsider your decision down the road, your comments have alot of passion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection appears to be weakening a little this evening as the lower-level swirl moves offshore. Looks very much like the wave that moved offshore (and fell apart) a few days ago. I know a lot of you here can't wait for the next storm to develop, but don't put too much hope on this one. It's unlikely to make "invest" much less become a TD. The next 24-48 hours will tell the story. If convection falls apart completely over the next 24 hours then it's gone.

Agree, there is way way to much SAL over the eastern Atlatnic at the moment. Don't expect any real development in the short term. On the other hand shear levels are low, but SAL rules, because nothing is worst then a thick stable layer to kill cyclone development. I will keep watching Boris or a possible gulf system that some models been hinting at, and leave the eastern Atlantic intill mid August.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The favored place for this wave would be the Western Caribbean, or more likely, the Pacific. But it seems not even the pro-mets are in 100% agreement, so we shall see what we shall see.


The "we shall see", is, of course, an amateur and unofficial prediction, not endorsed by S2K.

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that a whole 7 TS/hurricanes have developed in the Carib in July.

The Carib is just not favorable for development during July. If this is to develop, it needs to before reaching the Carib

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Not as much SAL. So it may have a short window, but it won't have much chance once it moves past 35 west. Anyways there is a MLC just off the coast. I say 10-15 percent chance of a depression and 30 percent chance of a invest.

[cycloneye]

This pic looks like fire all around but its Water Vapor.



Infared imagery



Low cloud imagery

[Vortex]

This pic looks like fire all around but its Water Vapor.



Infared imagery



Low cloud imagery

245 utc..well on its way..nice structure. Its very rare we find ourselves looking at the real potential of a TS near the Cape verde islands in early July. This one IMO gets classified as a TD/Bertha by Friday/Sat and nears the islands overnight sunday into Monday morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will admit that this system looks very very good. Nice curving forming with the system the last few frames.

[RL3AO]

July + Cape Verde Islands + Strong tropical wave + Low shear + Warm SSTs = Bertha?