Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[RL3AO]

Last blog until August 6
With the tropics relatively quiet now, I'm going to take some time off and do some hiking in Colorado (I've spent the past 3 days blogging from the back seat of a heavily loaded rental car, driving cross-county!) The peak part of hurricane season is almost a month away, and if the behavior of the tropics in July is any indication, it will be a long and severe hurricane season. So, I'm going to get some R&R in, and let Bryan Woods blog for me while I'm gone. I will be keeping an eye on things, and can jump back in if anything nasty pops up.
Jeff Masters.

Storms always form when he goes on vacation. You can guarentee that at least one storm will form between now and August 6 since he is gone.

[Gustywind]

LOL i believe you without confirmed that so when and where RL3AO that the 100000 $ question....

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan AFD:

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE...WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THIS MOMENT...WILL TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM
AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THIS MONTH. IF THIS VERIFY...A GOOD
WEATHER PRODUCER WILL BE NEAR THE FA BY THIS TIME. STAY TUNE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Gustywind]

Interresting feature down the road ( should it verifies first!!!), tkanks Cycloneye for the info

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

[img]

Looks like banding!

[gatorcane]

From the San Juan AFD:

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE...WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THIS MOMENT...WILL TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM
AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THIS MONTH. IF THIS VERIFY...A GOOD
WEATHER PRODUCER WILL BE NEAR THE FA BY THIS TIME. STAY TUNE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Look a little higher up in this thread and my forecast is pretty much the same as this for this wave

They are pretty much following the GFS with this forecast.

[Praxus]

This wave looks good. Seems our main contender now - especially with the GFS having it reach the caribbean.

[Gustywind]

From the San Juan AFD:

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE...WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THIS MOMENT...WILL TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM
AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THIS MONTH. IF THIS VERIFY...A GOOD
WEATHER PRODUCER WILL BE NEAR THE FA BY THIS TIME. STAY TUNE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Look a little higher up in this thread and my forecast is pretty much the same as this for this wave

They are pretty much following the GFS with this forecast.

Usually i've noticied that they appreciate often GFS, they are very confident in this model, that's my little observation since a few years less than 5 years with http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0
So i'm not too much impressed by this for the anecdote....

[Gustywind]

We should give it 24 more hours to see REALLY if convection can be sustain and be concentrate ( key factor) after we could have a better idea, just a thought....

[Mecklenburg]

this thing looks good... why ins't this an invest yet?

[RL3AO]

this thing looks good... why ins't this an invest yet?

I'm guessing because the wave axis is still over land.

[Mecklenburg]

this thing looks good... why ins't this an invest yet?

I'm guessing because the wave axis is still over land.

oh...

and also, is there another wave behind it?

[RL3AO]

this thing looks good... why ins't this an invest yet?

I'm guessing because the wave axis is still over land.

oh...

and also, is there another wave behind it?

Looks to be one in southern Chad, about 2500 miles away from the coast.

[Nimbus]

The water is a little warmer down around 10N and this is getting to be the end of July.
What are the odds it will become 98L?

[jlauderdal]

From the San Juan AFD:

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE...WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT THIS MOMENT...WILL TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM
AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THIS MONTH. IF THIS VERIFY...A GOOD
WEATHER PRODUCER WILL BE NEAR THE FA BY THIS TIME. STAY TUNE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

You oggta love a disco where they talk about weather sometime around the end of the month, on a more serious note when the term "stay tuned" is used that is a clue something is cooking

[gatorcane]

this thing looks good... why ins't this an invest yet?

Let's see if the NHC mentions in the TWO at 8pm EST.

[RL3AO]

this thing looks good... why ins't this an invest yet?

Let's see if the NHC mentions in the TWO at 8pm EST.

You mean 7pm EST.

[gatorcane]

technically 8pm EDT.

[catastrophic]

this stom looks stonger than 97L, but i agree that should wait 24hr to see if it hold convection[img][/img]