Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2009 4:39 am ET

The Atlantic basin remains very quiet. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are practically clear of any convection.

A wave of low pressure has moved off of Africa. It is still a little too early in the season for this area to be the breeding ground where systems hold together. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor this area.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[Blown Away]

Convection maintaining/building with this wave.

[Sanibel]

Weak but significant and a sign of improving favorability. Maybe it will deepen further west?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm tepidly interested, an upgrade from complete ennui for most of the season. Perhaps the 2 East Pac invests imply a less hostile upward motion pattern is soon to enter the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

Come on this wave is not getting the love it deserves. Strong wave, persistent convection, and at a low latitude. I think everybody on the board is defeated and do not want to get to excited and then be let down! IMO, this wave is the real deal and will become Ana and pass near the NE Caribbean and then become a potential threat to SFL or Carolinas come mid August just like the Farmer's Almanac predicts. In a few days the Atlantic ACE will be zero no more and we can all let go of our Pacific Ace envy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Potential Florida Flambé-er and/or Carolina Crippler is now entering stage right...


Satellite loop

[GeneratorPower]

Hmnnn....looking more interesting. I'm glad it's on the US satellites now.

[gatorcane]

looks like it is on its way to an invest if you ask me. We will have to keep a close eye on this one given the time of year and general track models want to take it.

A code will be assigned by NHC later today if convection maintains

[Cyclone1]

There she is. To be honest, I'm surprised it held up. Looks pretty decent, now. I'll be watching.

[cycloneye]

There is not one but two.

[Brent]

Hmmmmm, looks very good. I'm moderately interested, at least there is SOMETHING.

[lester]

Hmmmmm, looks very good. I'm moderately interested, at least there is SOMETHING.

amen dude

[tolakram]

Just coming off Africa in these images. I see spin in that wave plus the one ahead of it, though the wave in front looks less and less impressive.

Here's a textbook example from last year that wxman mentioned in another thread.

ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/mimic_tpw/a ... anim72.gif

[Gustywind]

Interresting paragraph by the Weather Channel
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2009 11:47 am ET

The Atlantic basin remains very quiet. The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico currently have no features of interest.

Well out in the Atlantic, a tropical wave is located near Africa. This area will be monitored as it moves west, however nothing appears imminent at this time.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is not one but two.

If the second wave tries to develop, it could lower heights behind the first wave in the mean steering layers 850 to 500 mb, which might reduce the amount of latitude the first wave gains as it heads West.

Wave 1 doesn't look super organized, but it isn't lacking for convection.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG
19W/20W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION
FROM DAKAR INDICATES THE WAVE PASSING NEAR 17.5W AROUND 0000
UTC ON 08/03. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 17W-21W.$$
WALT0N

[Derek Ortt]

time to burst everyone's bubble

the first one has as much chance at developing as I have of defeating Alberto Contador at the 2010 Tour de France.

That is merely an area of convection at the ridge of the wave train. Yes, that is at the surface ridge of relatively higher pressure. The second area is associated with the next tropical wave

we are looking at quiet probably until the last days of the month based upon some experimental products

[Ed Mahmoud]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG
19W/20W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION
FROM DAKAR INDICATES THE WAVE PASSING NEAR 17.5W AROUND 0000
UTC ON 08/03. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 17W-21W.$$
WALT0N

That would be the second wave. Maybe the first wave isn't enough of a wave to count, but I sort of like the looks of the ITCZ disturbance approaching 30ºW.

[cycloneye]

Loop of image posted earlier.

[cycloneye]

Nothing from NHC yet.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS