Is the 2010 season still on track towards 18+ or not?

[x-y-no]

As of July 23:

2005: 7/3/2
2010 (at this minute - subject to change): 2/1/0

I'm starting to guess that the seasonal forecasters are beginning to wonder too, especially since some meteorologists now think the negative MJO for the Atlantic will continue through late August, because even if and when the positive phase does return to this part of the world, if it doesn't happen until after the winter jet migrates southward (and along with it strong cold fronts), positive phase or no the season will be over, so we'll see, but just two weeks from today we'll already be through the first week of August, so the clock is ticking...

Frank

On the other hand, 2004, which finished 15/9/6, was at 0/0/0 on this date.

Plenty of time for an active season yet.

[hurricaneCW]

I know everyone is pointing to 2004, but honestly those kinds of seasons are few and far between. At least we're ahead of that point, which still makes getting 14-16 storms a good possibility.

[ConvergenceZone]

I could be wrong, but I just have this gut feeling that they are going to be way off on their high number projection
of storms. The Atlantic is very very hostile right now with shear and dry air etc, and it's not giving any indication
that it's going to be changing soon. Since August is almost upon us, the CV season may not get going until the last week
of August or first week of September.

[HURAKAN]

I know it's off-topic, but people were crazy with the EPAC and the quick start. What is funny is that it has been almost a month since Darby dissipated!

Wait and see.

[tolakram]

Here's what I don't get ... and not picking on you Frank, just quoting because you provided the numbers.

As of July 23:

2005: 7/3/2
2010 (at this minute - subject to change): 2/1/0

2005 had 28/15/7 storms and got an early start. Let's simply lop off 5 storms and even subtract 2 more storms (Harvey and Irene) just for good measure, assuming we won't get active for another few weeks. Next up is Jose on August 22nd, 2005.

That would leave us at 21 storms for 2010, if the season ramps up as expected and stays active till late in the season, as many La Ninas tend to do.

Now let's remove 3 late season storms, leaving just a single November storm for 2010. That leaves us with 18 storms.

Far from impossible, far from likely, but somewhere in between.

[hurricaneCW]

This is starting to remind me of the doom and gloom forecasts made in 2006. I'm banking on an active late season to save us from a major bust.

[Scorpion]

This is starting to remind me of the doom and gloom forecasts made in 2006. I'm banking on an active late season to save us from a major bust.

How could you possibly compare? There is no way a La Nina year like this ends similarly to 2006

[gilbert88]

This is starting to remind me of the doom and gloom forecasts made in 2006. I'm banking on an active late season to save us from a major bust.

Yeah, because August is "late season".

But this attitude in July shouldn't be surprising... people were saying the same thing in 2005 of all years.

[StormClouds63]

No.

[Ptarmigan]

The formation of Bonnie will help a bit the season to reach or be close to the 18 number.

Same here. I still think we will be very active. 1969 was a late starter and had 18 storms.

[Ptarmigan]

This is starting to remind me of the doom and gloom forecasts made in 2006. I'm banking on an active late season to save us from a major bust.

2006 went into El Nino. 2006 had a more active start than 1969, 2000, and 2004 and they ended up being very active.

[cycloneye]

Here is 1969 that started on the 25th of July with the C storm named on the 14th of August and you know who was the C. 17 named systems formed.

Code: Select all

1 Tropical Storm ANNA  25 JUL- 5 AUG  60  1002  -   
2 Hurricane BLANCHE  11-13 AUG  75  997  1   
3 Hurricane CAMILLE  14-22 AUG  165  905  5   
4 Hurricane DEBBIE  14-25 AUG  105  951  3   
5 Tropical Storm EVE  25-27 AUG  50  996  -   
6 Hurricane FRANCELIA  29 AUG- 4 SEP  100  973  3   
7 Hurricane GERDA  6-10 SEP  110  979  3   
8 Hurricane HOLLY  14-21 SEP  75  984  1   
9 Hurricane INGA  20 SEP-15 OCT  100  964  3   
10 Hurricane #10  21-26 SEP  65  985  1   
11 Tropical Storm #11  24-30 SEP  60  990  -   
12 Subtropical Storm 1  29 SEP- 1 OCT  50  996  -   
13 Tropical Storm JENNY  1- 6 OCT  40  1000  -   
14 Hurricane KARA  7-19 OCT  90  978  2   
15 Hurricane LAURIE  17-27 OCT  90  973  2   
16 Tropical Storm #16  28-31 OCT  60  990  -   
17 Hurricane #17  30 OCT- 7 NOV  65  988  1   
18 Hurricane MARTHA  21-25 NOV  80  979  1   


[HURAKAN]

Making comparisons are hard because every season is different!

[cycloneye]

[ConvergenceZone]

Making comparisons are hard because every season is different!

I agree Hurakan, that's why I have such a hard time when someone says, "in so and so year, the C storm didn't develop until such and such"...
I want to say, well 2010 isn't that year and every year is different...
2010 may still end up being a normal activity year, nobody knows for sure.

[KWT]

I'm pretty certain it won't CZ....even 2009 type numbers from now on would mean an above average season...

[thetruesms]

Making comparisons are hard because every season is different!

It is, but there is some information that can be gleaned about general season characteristics if you make very careful selections. It's not always a completely fruitless exercise.

[KWT]

Indeed, thus far 1998 is proving to be a decent ernough match in terms of at least the global pattern and whilst we had more than 1998 the broad set-up we have aloft is very similar so far...something people should bare in mind when they think this season is a bust already...the 11,000 people that died that year wouldn't have thought the season was a bust just because we had 0/0/0 at this moment.

[cycloneye]

Indeed, thus far 1998 is proving to be a decent ernough match in terms of at least the global pattern and whilst we had more than 1998 the broad set-up we have aloft is very similar so far...something people should bare in mind when they think this season is a bust already...the 11,000 people that died that year wouldn't have thought the season was a bust just because we had 0/0/0 at this moment.

I dont want to see 1998 redux, you may know why. But it could happen.

[taccido]

The fact is that this year through June was the hottest year on record because of global warming. The oceans are also hotter and will stay hot late in the year. I bet there will lots of storms in October and maybe an unexpected hurricane in November!!