Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat? (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

No mention at 8 AM EDT TWO.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TheBurn]

[ColinDelia]

Easterly shear in excess of 20 knots over part of this system. IF that shear were to remain in place it would be 1-2 days before it started to get west of it.

[Frank2]

Glad the name Fiona means "fair":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiona

P.S. The GFS continues to show lobes of the polar trough rotating through the US and North Atlantic through Day 10, so the subtropical high might remain weak or absent in the western Atlantic if that trend continues...

[Aquawind]

P.S. The GFS continues to show lobes of the polar trough rotating through the US and North Atlantic through Day 10, so the subtropical high might remain weak or absent in the western Atlantic if that trend continues...

YAY!!!

It's just a forecast but, consistent with what we have experienced thus far.

So I like the chances of this pouch doing the same and lifting out to fishland as well..It's just a matter of timing for every system as the ridge can build at any time but, odds are on fish. This would be three threats in a row averted for the US mainland. As we can see there are a couple more already lined up for prime time so were far from out of the woods from the CV season and homegrown looks to be the more likely landfalling threat. We will be watching everything and that's what matters.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Frank2]

Sure, though this season in some ways reminds me of the 1981 season - it was also a VERY wet August in Miami (some parts of Dade County measured almost 90 inches of rain for that entire year!), but it was essentially a quiet year for tropical systems - even though it was a very active CV season:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1981_ ... on_map.png

truly, it would have been a disasterous season had the subtropical high not been displaced eastward by a lingering Hurricane Emily, which left a deep trough in the western Atlantic...

We were thankful for the outcome, that's for sure...

Frank

P.S. That was my year for a recon flight into marginal Hurricane Dennis - we thought it'd become a hurricane while we were in it, but it was "nothing more than" 6 hours of choppy air (a/k/a the Earth's version of purgatory, since some here probably know what just a few minutes of choppy air can feel like during the average airline flight)...

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... TPC ... 1012 mb closed isobar where this system may be

[KWT]

This area probably will be an invest in the next 24hrs or so I reckon.

[StormClouds63]

KWT:

Does the re-curve scenario hold firm with this future invest or does the ridge finally build back forcing a more westerly path?

I have a feeling that once the re-curve pattern is established, it will be difficult to break.

However, I found it interesting in one of your posts ... you wrote that if Danielle moved quickly out to the north and northeast, Earl and this future invest might stay on the more southerly route? Are you thinking here that the ridge builds back in if Danielle departs quickly out to sea?

[Vortex]

Well on on it's way to an invest..I'm not so sure this recurves before 60w...

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, based upon what we've seen so far, this year may be pretty active from a number standpoint, but they may be well off the mark when it comes to landfalling storms...

It does seem to be the season of the recruve.....

[Frank2]

The HRD/NHC staff and others have written many journal articles on the subtropical high and it's effect on cyclone tracks - some of them can be found by clicking the link below...

http://www.ametsoc.org/searchresults.ht ... %3A11#1155

[Gustywind]

Much more convection associated with this strong twave...

[Gustywind]

Pretty much souther than its predecessors. Looks like a window of opportunity for this one to track maybe much straight west. An option of an Invest could be in store during for the weekend (48H) given its pretty decent appareance. Just my opinion and no more. Let's wait and see as we're entering the peak of this hurricane season.

[MHurricanes]

The odds of all future storms "recurving" is small. We have at least another month of intense activity ahead of us. (As Joe Bastardi has mentioned, La Nina seasons tend to ramp up later rather than sooner. We're already beginning to see the sudden increase in activity.)

Some place is going to get whacked this season. It is way to early to rule out a hit on the U.S. coastline. South Florida is long overdue for a major hit. So is the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. You can add to that list the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast of the U.S.

- MHurricanes (Go 'Canes)

[HurrMark]

Some place is going to get whacked this season. It is way to early to rule out a hit on the U.S. coastline. South Florida is long overdue for a major hit. So is the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. You can add to that list the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast of the U.S.

- MHurricanes (Go 'Canes)

There were 22 hurricanes between Hurricane Irene in 1999 and Hurricane Lili in 2002 that did not make landfall in the US. So yes, there might be a lot of bullets, but that does not mean many (or any) will hit the "target".

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 15:20 GMT le 26 août 2010 — Last Comment: 15:21 GMT le 26 août 2010
Danielle steams towards Bermuda; Earl organizing over eastern Atlantic


Posted by: JeffMasters, 15:20 GMT le 26 août 2010


Elsewhere in the Tropics
A new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Several of the computer models develop this wave 3 - 6 days from now, and I can't see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and several of these models successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and Earl well in advance. The new wave will follow a track similar to that of Danielle and Earl, with an unknown potential for eventually affecting any land areas.


Jeff Masters