Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

[cycloneye]

Saturdays 12z GFS enters CA and emerge in the EPAC.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[fci]

looks like most of the guidance eventually takes this into CA....while not a given it certainly seems most likely if the ridge sets up the way the globals are forecasting...A month ago I sure thought the east gulf/fl would be threatened if not hit in October but it looks more like 2010 will be the year of the non-event for the US.

I wouldn't be so hasty. I think we will see formation of a TC by Monday or Tuesday and I suspect the models will flip flop again.

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I agree with CourierPR... Last week the GFS continuously had a hurricane hitting South Florida as well as the Nogaps indicating a hurricane heading towards W Cuba posters here were concerned....now that the models shifted to C.A the same posters are now saying that the Conus is safe

Let everything play out....remember that there is nothing organized yet so it's not known if Richard will form....and yes just as soon as the models shifted to CA they can just as easily start shifting back to the US

I tend to continue to defer to wxman57's forecast of the ridge building to the North and most likely preventing a trek to N or NE.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Dean4Storms]

I think the track will get determined at least in the Carib. Sea with how deep the system gets. The stronger it gets before any land interaction I believe the more latitude it gains, whereas a weaker system gets sent in the lower level flow more WNW toward a CA landfall. Back when the models were showing a northward motion the models were creating a monster very quickly, now they seem to be keeping it weaker and moving it westward.

Maybe the truth lies somewhere in between, we'll see.

[Ntxw]

fci makes a very good point. The current system unless picked up by the trough (not likely as of now) should meander around CA. If the ridge forms (as predicted) then it will prevent anything from heading north or northeast. If it does move north it would be a n-nw motion.

[LarryWx]

I decided to do a climo analysis of only those mid to late Oct. W. Caribbean TC's that formed at 15N or further south/77.5W or further west, which is where Richard is progged to form by the gfs. There have been 23 of these since 1851. Out of these 23, 9 (39% vs. 42% for overall mid to late oct W. Caribbean climo) hit the U.S., 8 (35% vs. 20%) died in/near C.A./MX, 5 (22% vs. 33%) missed the U.S. to the east, and 1 (4% vs. 5%) died in the SE GOM. What this tells me vs. overall mid to late Oct. W. Caribbean climo is that the chance of a U.S. hit is pretty much unchanged, the chance of a death in/near C.A./MX is a good bit larger and is just about equal with the chance for a U.S. hit, and the chance of a miss to the east is a good bit smaller and is smaller than the chance of a U.S. hit.

So, in summary, assuming Richard does form near where the GFS progs (which is obviously iffy based on the last few Euro runs), I'd go in the early stages (i.e. while models are still very unsure) with about an equal chance of a hit on the U.S. and death in/near C.A./MX, and a good bit smaller chance of a miss of the U.S. to the east. As we get closer and the models consistently converge on a particular solution, then the odds would obviously rise for that scenario. It is still way too early to call that, especially since it won't even form for at least a few days per models.

[gatorcane]

Cmc moves it north into the nw caribbean with a wsw bend at the end

[Macrocane]

European models don't want to develop this, the UKMET has a weak reflection and the ECMWF doesn't show a thing.

[Sanibel]

This bizarre permanent front is firmly in place. Reminds me of the prolonged cold snap last winter.

How does this relate to the disturbed area?

Well, this cold front is unseasonable and has been in place an unusually long time. Right now it appears to be keeping the SW Caribbean convection to the south and creating model runs into Central America.

There's something that keeps telling me straight probability says the fact no systems have been guided towards CONUS means one is due to beat that trend, but so far 2010 keeps defying that.

Right now the Panama disturbance appears to be resolving too close to CA and too south.

[MGC]

Looks like it might move into Central America to me....doubt it developes before it hits land.....MGC

[caneseddy]

FWIW...18Z NAM has our system off of Nicaragua in 84 hours..according to this run, this system should develop by Tuesday which is what most models have recently been showing

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[caneseddy]

18z GFS up to 90 hours has our system off of Nicaragua..early trend looks like another Central America landfall

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

[caneseddy]

18z GFS to 108 hours....still has it off the Nicaragua coast..looks like another Central America landfall

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108l.gif

[caneseddy]

At 126 hours, our system drifts WSW and makes landfall on the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border and then looks to move westward towards the EPAC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126l.gif

[gatorcane]

18z gfs. Poof.

See you all in 2011

[CourierPR]

18z gfs. Poof.

See you all in 2011

Wasn't it just yesterday or the day before when you stated this was going to be a monster?

[cycloneye]

See you all in 2011

So you will not come to the Talking Tropics forum until June 1? The tropical weather fans are all year around discussing all about tropical weather,even if is on the non hurricane season months, as there is always plenty to talk about.For example,the peeps talk about the tropical cyclone reports,how ENSO is doing to see how it will influence the upcomming season.We also talk about the 2011 names and also about which 2010 names are retired. Also,we discuss about what is going on in other basins around the world,about how are the ssts doing in the preseason months,about how is the NAO doing and the forecast for that factor that may influence the 2011 season.Also about we talk about our predictions for the upcomming season as we do the annual Storm2k forecast numbers poll.We discuss about what the experts will forecast for the upcomming season in their preseason outlooks.And we talk about many other themes in the out of season months

[gatorcane]

I was partially joking about 2011. I'm too much of a weather nut to wait that long

Let's see if the 00z gfs shows something different.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA IS
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ntxw]

Just to show anything beyond 2-3 days is little more than an educated guess! Today's models doesn't show anything doesn't mean previous runs are wrong and there might be a storm. But who's to say the runs before were right compared to today's! Grain of salt...