2011 WPAC Season

[StormingB81]

The ECMWF model loves Okinawa this year...They picking something up next weekend around Okinawa...the quiteness maybe over

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like uptick in activity next week, ECMWF been trending this for a few days now.

The ECMWF model loves Okinawa this year...They picking something up next weekend around Okinawa...the quiteness maybe over

Latest 00z run takes a TC well south of Okinawa into northern Taiwan with another one developing behind it.

[StormingB81]

My Bad. I see it now..I was looking mainly at the colors. But it could miss us..with all the rain we need time to dry out plus it shows 27 and 28 that is a weekend...they are not allowed to mess up the weekends! In all seriousness though Coming up on the busy time of the year and how the year started could be in for alot

[euro6208]

looks like we will be tracking this season's 14th and 15th tropical cyclone probrably by next week...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not an invest or anything, but think the area just North of Guam bears watching..

[StormingB81]

models still showing 2 storms..looks like we going to be busy next week!

[phwxenthusiast]

the latest global model suite (00z) shows 2 scenarios as we head into next week:



the first one (Red) is supported by GFS, the CMC, NOGAPS (somewhat), and the FIM (lol i know it's an experimental) - shows a cyclone forming near the Marianas (could be 95W) moving north towards S. Japan with another cyclone developing near that same area and moving generally northward as well...

the second one (Blue) is being shown by the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET... they limit the development of 95W and instead focus on another vortex near Yap... they bring it towards the Taiwan-Okinawa area... Euro and NOGAPS also shows a potential cyclone development north of CNMI at the end of their respective runs...

whatever scenario pans out, looks like the models are indeed painting a more active W. Pacific by next week...

[dexterlabio]

The EPAC and North Atlantic have been heating up recently. Excited to know which basin will win with the highest ACE by the end of the year. I personally think the Atlantic season this year will be a very interesting one for everyone in Central America, the Caribbean and the east coast (rooting for 97L right now over the invests present in the Western Pacific).


As I've said in Invest 95W thread, the WPAC is just approaching the peak by September. I'm looking forward to track all the interesting potential systems that will form in the coming days and weeks. Yeah I'm excited.

[StormingB81]

no new storm today for my birthday...lol

[Chacor]

WPAC is as of today two storms behind long-term average.

[StormingB81]

I think we are about to fix that..but who knows

[StormingB81]

It looks like all these invests are throwing off the models..looks like we may have to wait a couple of days to see what may pan out

[euro6208]

The EPAC and North Atlantic have been heating up recently. Excited to know which basin will win with the highest ACE by the end of the year. I personally think the Atlantic season this year will be a very interesting one for everyone in Central America, the Caribbean and the east coast (rooting for 97L right now over the invests present in the Western Pacific).


As I've said in Invest 95W thread, the WPAC is just approaching the peak by September. I'm looking forward to track all the interesting potential systems that will form in the coming days and weeks. Yeah I'm excited.

I think the epac will beat the atlantic for highest ace but we will see.. the wpac is unreachable

yeah im excited too. more monster typhoons in the next few weeks as we are now in the *ber* months where many historical typhoons in the world have developed.

.

[Chacor]

11th named storm of the season forms. As of today, 1.3 storms behind average.

[euro6208]

11th named storm of the season forms. As of today, 1.3 storms behind average.

so that means if 97W becomes a named system, it would be our 12th and only 0.3 behind average right?

[Chacor]

No, because the average changes every day. The long-term average on August 24 is 12.5.

[Typhoon10]

Should I be suprised this year? It appears quite active in terms of systems, but majority of them appear to head up towards Okinawa/Japan and Korea. For the SCS and HK particularly we havent seen much activity.

Also, August has been very hot and dry, my own feeling that rainfall is well below average for the month of August.

Can anyone share the reasons I state above?

[dexterlabio]

^I guess the ridging at this time of the year has all systems track northwards and almost nothing made it to South China Sea (except for Nock-ten)... Usually the high over North Asia during the last quarter of a year is at its peak, thus making Southeast Asia prone to severe tropical cyclones making landfall (with the exception of life-saving mid-latitude troughs which could pick them up going north and get rid of them. lol)

[dexterlabio]

Nanmadol's pumping up in WPAC. I personally think (opinion with no met-backgrounds at all) this is a signal that more impressive (but equally dangerous) systems will emerge especially that we approach the months of September-October-November.

[euro6208]

latest euro forecast develops our 16th tropical cyclone to the east of the philippines. let's wait and watch...