2012 EPAC season

[cycloneye]

Well if the Atlantic is going to shut down like wxman predicts, at least give us some nice EPAC fish.

Yep, it is fishspinner time of year. BTW, want me to post some EPAC trivia in this threat, if so I will.

Go ahead with the trivias. I like those.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion about future tropical development in EPAC.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 03 2012


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

LOOKING BEYOND 48
HOURS...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA MAY BE ONE OF
INTEREST. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS INCREASE IN MONSOONAL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE GAP WIND FLOW
THROUGH PAPAGAYO WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH BACKGROUND FLOW FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
GROWTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT AND THIS DOES PAN OUT. IF IT DOES...IT
WOULD BE AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF HOW TROPICAL WAVES INTERACT
WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
HELP DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Well if the Atlantic is going to shut down like wxman predicts, at least give us some nice EPAC fish.

Yep, it is fishspinner time of year. BTW, want me to post some EPAC trivia in this threat, if so I will.

Go ahead with the trivias. I like those.

For starers, there were only two landfalling July EPAC hurricanes, Calvin in 1993 and Eugene in 1987.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC looks very interesting right now with Daniel and Emilia.

[Yellow Evan]

From Twitter:
@RyanMaue Busy Eastern Pacific hurricane season w/GFS during next 16-days, has F, G, H, I storms after Daniel and Emilia.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC ACE continues to go up rapidly with Daniel and Emilia. Let's see after Daniel is gone,how much ACE Emily adds as she may be a big one.

Code: Select all

04E (Daniel)
 
Operational
 
6.4700

05E (Emilia)
 
Operational
 
0.4850

Eastern Pacific Total

16.3025


[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC ACE continues to go up rapidly with Daniel and Emilia. Let's see after Daniel is gone,how much ACE Emily adds as she may be a big one.

Code: Select all

04E (Daniel)
 
Operational
 
6.4700

05E (Emilia)
 
Operational
 
0.4850

Eastern Pacific Total

16.3025


Dainel wll likely hit an ACE of 8 IMO, if not higher.

But again, the posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

From Twitter:
@RyanMaue Busy Eastern Pacific hurricane season w/GFS during next 16-days, has F, G, H, I storms after Daniel and Emilia.

If that ends up being the case, this 2012 Epac season will start to compete with 1992's hurricane season which I think was the most active on record, reaching the end of the alphabet. There were no category 5 hurricanes during the 1992 and 1993 seasons strangely enough. The strings of major hurricanes though were outrageous, like 1992 almost had 5 in a row and 1993 almost had 7 in a row! If TS Irwin and Hurricane Calvin (95 knots) that year had been major hurricanes, then almost 10 majors in a row not including the Cpac system which would be 11!

The GFS tells us that in 72 hours Fabio will be here. I can't help but think if one or two of those Invests were declared TS's, we would be at Gilma by now (I think one of them became a TS for real briefly). It would be like living in the early 90s!

[cycloneye]

System behind Hurricane Emilia.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

From Twitter:
@RyanMaue Busy Eastern Pacific hurricane season w/GFS during next 16-days, has F, G, H, I storms after Daniel and Emilia.

If that ends up being the case, this 2012 Epac season will start to compete with 1992's hurricane season which I think was the most active on record, reaching the end of the alphabet. There were no category 5 hurricanes during the 1992 and 1993 seasons strangely enough. The strings of major hurricanes though were outrageous, like 1992 almost had 5 in a row and 1993 almost had 7 in a row! If TS Irwin and Hurricane Calvin (95 knots) that year had been major hurricanes, then almost 10 majors in a row not including the Cpac system which would be 11!

The GFS tells us that in 72 hours Fabio will be here. I can't help but think if one or two of those Invests were declared TS's, we would be at Gilma by now (I think one of them became a TS for real briefly). It would be like living in the early 90s!

1993 only had 15 storms. 1992 has 28. Now if we were to go pre-1990 data is much less reliable, but look at 1985/1983 PHS, which were just as amazing as those two seasons. Wit that said, I'd love to be wrong, but getting 28 NS is a pipe dream.I'm thinking around 20 storms seems about right.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go again with Fabio!

[Kingarabian]

Probably have another Invest declared soon.

[Yellow Evan]

Yep. See the 98E thread on the active storms forum.

[cycloneye]

The ACE for the EPAC continues to go up rapidly with Daniel,Emilia and Fabio. This update is until the July 14th at 2 AM PDT advisories.

Code: Select all

04E (Daniel)
 
Operational
 
14.7050
 
05E (Emilia)
 
Operational
 
17.3375

06E (Fabio)
 
Operational
 
3.0075

Eastern Pacific Total

46.8875



[cycloneye]

So far in 2012,the Eastern Pacific has been far more interesting than the Western Pacific or the North Atlantic as all systems since Bud have been at least category 2 .Here they are.

Bud



Carlotta



Daniel



Emilia



Fabio

[Yellow Evan]

Any model update on any other storms this year?

[Kingarabian]

Any model update on any other storms this year?

GFS showing Gilma in a week or more beginning to develop.

[CrazyC83]

Will the EPAC see a Cat 5 this year? I say yes.

[brunota2003]

I doubt the EPac will see a Cat 5, unless it is close to land and/or recon confirms it. It is, otherwise, very difficult to get the upgrade...as we all know. T7.0s across the board are...well, not a very common occurrence.