Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO 19N45W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE ON SATELLITE HAS THE CLASSIC TROPICAL WAVE
APPEARANCE WITH A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
ABOUT THE AXIS. WHAT THIS WAVE LACKS IS CONVECTION...AND
FURTHERMORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 46W-49W AND THIS LIMITED ACTIVITY REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS AREAS OF SAHARAN
DUST TO THE NE AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[IreneSurvivor47]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This is not official forecast, but I think this wave is getting a bit more organized.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... b_loop.gif

[IreneSurvivor47]

This is not official forecast, but I think this wave is getting a bit more organized.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... b_loop.gif

There seems to be an "eye" like object forming.

[AJC3]

Let's keep this in perspective before we start throwing out terms such as "eye-like", etc. It's a fairly broad, and (other than a few occasional weak toots) convection-less gyre in a pretty stable environment moving rapidly west without any fanfare.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Scratch the eye. We may see a blow up tonight in the convection.

[IreneSurvivor47]

This should be taken with a grain of salt since I'm new here, but popcorn seems more active.
This is not official forecast at all and if you are looking for it go to: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[Fego]

A tropical wave can't have an eye, only hurricanes, IMHO. Besides that, down here we only hope for a good period of rains, but with no flood

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N46W TO 10N51W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR
THE AXIS. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR
LAYER THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO INDICATES LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF
DUST NEAR THE WAVE...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE AXIS BESIDES
A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE.

[IreneSurvivor47]

We are seeing a bit more convection, nothing to praise yet.

[IreneSurvivor47]

A tropical wave can't have an eye, only hurricanes, IMHO. Besides that, down here we only hope for a good period of rains, but with no flood

Sorry just getting carried away. What I meant was I thought I saw the center.

[IreneSurvivor47]

My amateur prediction is not official forecast and should not be taken as such and is not endorsed by anything.
Okay, I think that we may see popcorn for the next 5-6 hours and then we may see some convection with slightly better conditions and we could see a potential invest late Sun-Monday

[mcheer23]

Still doesn't look so great to my eye..

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N48W 16N49W 11N50W.
THE WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

[Gustywind]

More convection today compared to yesterday at the same time...

[Nimbus]

The convection is probably just north of the center of circulation that everyone was seeing yesterday. If it persists they will make it an invest since it is getting closer to the islands.

[Gustywind]

Loop clearly show this big burst of convection.

[cycloneye]

The convection is probably just north of the center of circulation that everyone was seeing yesterday. If it persists they will make it an invest since it is getting closer to the islands.

Before that, NHC may have a circle and mention it in the near future.

[GCANE]

In about 25 knots of shear. Looks like short-terms MCS's are firing due to it in a cluster.

Still, lots of mid-level dry air around it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html


850mb vorticity looks more organized this morning. Maybe trying to work its way to the surface.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[TheBurn]

11:00 UTC - RGB / Natural Color




07:15 EDT - WV_Enhanced

[NDG]

Nice pressure fall as the TW's trough axis passed over buoy 41040.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

The tropical wave still has nice cyclonic flow but I do not see any evidence of a closed circulation at the surface.
I do believe the NHC will start mentioning the tropical wave at their TWO but with no real global model support for development I doubt that they will give it higher than 10% for development. I am 50/50 that they will upgrade it into an Invest.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products