Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[Riptide]

Needs to be invested, is the most threatening system right now for the conus, in my opinion. The overall structure is still embedded in the ITCZ and may not develop for quite some time.

[floridasun78]

it need storms to be invest look better look like drying out

[RL3AO]

Could be interesting to watch if it makes it towards the Central Caribbean.

[caneman]

Might be time for a new hobby There sure hasn't been much to track the last couple of years. We're heading into the latter 2/3rd's of August now.

[RL3AO]

Might be time for a new hobby There sure hasn't been much to track the last couple of years. We're heading into the latter 2/3rd's of August now.

Give us until Late-September. I have a feeling there will be a couple fun ones to track.

[jlauderdal]

Might be time for a new hobby There sure hasn't been much to track the last couple of years. We're heading into the latter 2/3rd's of August now.

you live in florida, plenty of opportunity ahead

[Gustywind]

2 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
20N59W TO 9N59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 58W-
59W.



By the way, Guadeloupe is since 530 AM under an yellow alert for a risk of strong and tstorms due to the arrival of this moderate twave. Let's see what pan's out from this feature. I will keep your informed if anything happens in the butterfky island.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested (french version), here is the link related to the yellow alert for Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/b ... ilance.php
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion. Looks like twave is moving less quicker 10 kts and is gaining more convection this morning. If the forecasts are correct, Guadeloupe should get more showers and tstorms today. Let's wait and see.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
20N60W TO 9N60W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 91N-13N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 62W.

[caneman]

jlauderdale,

Yeah, I know it just seems that storms are having a hard time getting going. When is the last time we saw a beautiful - text book Hurricane to track?

[wxman57]

Stable Caribbean:


And very stable Tropical Atlantic:

[perk]

jlauderdale,

Yeah, I know it just seems that storms are having a hard time getting going. When is the last time we saw a beautiful - text book Hurricane to track?

2012.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

10% and 30 in 5 days woo

[Florida1118]

10% and 30 in 5 days woo

Wrong wave. 94L is E of the CV Islands.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

10% and 30 in 5 days woo

Wrong wave. 94L is E of the CV Islands.

k looks like its gonna be gabby then

[northjaxpro]

jlauderdale,

Yeah, I know it just seems that storms are having a hard time getting going. When is the last time we saw a beautiful - text book Hurricane to track?

Well, for me, the last impressive hurricanes to have tracked across the Atlantic basin were in 2011, Irene (Cat 3), Katia(Cat 4), and Ophelia (Cat 4).

We have not had any impressive hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since then IMO.

[NDG]

Stable Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... r_THDV.gif

And very stable Tropical Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

And to make things worst for tropical disturbances this year the subtropical Atlantic has also been running more stable than average over all, unlike last year.

[Riptide]

Stable Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... l_car_THDV

And very stable Tropical Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... l_tat_THDV

And to make things worst for tropical disturbances this year the subtropical Atlantic has also been running more stable than average over all, unlike last year.

FWIW, next week the pattern should change in the Western Atlantic and the constant shear and cold front intrusions should be replaced by a Bermuda High.

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW, next week the pattern should change in the Western Atlantic and the constant shear and cold front intrusions should be replaced by a Bermuda High.

People have been saying the patterns going to change for the past month! I'll believe it when I see it.

[ninel conde]

FWIW, next week the pattern should change in the Western Atlantic and the constant shear and cold front intrusions should be replaced by a Bermuda High.

People have been saying the patterns going to change for the past month! I'll believe it when I see it.

its the dry air that needs to leave.