Northern Gulf

[tropicwatch]

I don't know if this disturbed weather is going to be able to progress westward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing signs of a MLC trying to work to the surface near 89W 29N just south of the mouth of the MS River.

[Portastorm]

Seeing signs of a MLC trying to work to the surface near 89W 29N just south of the mouth of the MS River.

Seeing the same thing ... it does look a bit suspicious. Moving due west.

[ronjon]

Definitely a CC rotation at the mid-levels. I'm puzzled why given the persistent convection, rather good development conditions, proximity to US, and some signs of a circulation that this isn't already an INVEST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[PTrackerLA]

Rotation has become fairly pronounced SE of the mouth of the MS river and convection blossoming right in that area. Looking interesting but if anything we need some rain..moderate drought is on our doorsteps.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20130823&endTime=-1&duration=12

[tolakram]

I am usually wrong with these developing systems, but it sure looks like an LLC trying to form.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-91&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[northjaxpro]

Ronjon, you hve to remember that up until now surface pressures have not fallen across the Northern GOM region. Convection did wane last night a bit before flaring back up again this morning. I think if we see indications of pressure falls later today, I would imagine NHC may give this a possible invest tag.

I noticed the mid level swirl earlier today. If convection can maintain, the system may have a chance to get a surface reflecton.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like some banding developing on radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

[tolakram]

However,

pressures are rising, not falling.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[Aric Dunn]

Clearly there is a circ developing all appears to conducive.. land maybe an issue though the ridge to the north should be strong enough to keep it on a west track..

[Hammy]

Two things I'm noticing as potential evidence of a developing surface rotation is that there is a fairly evident surge of northerly winds pushing further south of eastern Louisiana, and the winds to the south of the MLC now appear to be still (at least on satellite) and were earlier from the east.

[tolakram]

12Z Canadian has tighter vorticity, making landfall, and also shows a kink in the pressure that was not there on a previous run.

Canadian of course.

[ROCK]

this should be an INVEST

right in the middle of the MLC is where new convection is building. That looks exactly like a LLC just tapping the surface. It needs to expand and the pressure will drop. I dont think we have a buoy right under it.

[cycloneye]

20%-20%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[Aric Dunn]

this should be an INVEST

right in the middle of the MLC is where new convection is building. That looks exactly like a LLC just tapping the surface. It needs to expand and the pressure will drop. I dont think we have a buoy right under it.

there are a lot of rigs out there. and yeah appears to be a weak llc trying to develop. surface winds are indicating broad turning no evidence of any west component yet

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 23 2013

.UPDATE...A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS
RIVER. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED FROM AROUND MOBILE BAY
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS OUR MARINE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THESE FEATURES. THIS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SERVED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE COAST...LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND INHIBIT THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE TO LAND AREAS. THIS ALL APPEARS TO LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

[ROCK]

20% and not an INVEST....wow!!...I guess you need every model showing development before it can be classified....

[wxman57]

More impressive MLC now, but lots of obs off SE LA indicate no LLC and no significant pressure falls. GFS and Canadian indicate the vorticity center will move into Galveston by noon tomorrow. That limits over-water time to 24 hrs or less - if the models are right, which I'm unsure of. Could be Sunday when it moves ashore. I'd give it 30-40% chance of TS, 5-10% of H. Agree that it should be an invest. But there isn't much question about the track. High north - it goes west.

[TheStormExpert]

The position and possible track reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Edouard from 2008. Of course the odds of development are slim.

[thetruesms]

20% and not an INVEST....wow!!...I guess you need every model showing development before it can be classified....

Devil's Advocate time, because it's fun - Being labeled as an invest doesn't "mean anything", in terms of public recognition. If you think the traditional suite of models is handling track and intensity (or lack thereof) well, why demand the resources for the tropical suite? Already plenty of resources for satellite and tons of surface obs, is a floater really necessary? Not really sure what the point of an Invest designation is other than to satisfy us Internet folks. The yellow blob on the website indicates that they're watching it, whether there's an Invest or not doesn't really mean that much, and I know you know that for all the times NHC has said it

Now if surface obs were showing a developing surface circulation or at least falling pressures, then it becomes something to more seriously consider.