Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

[jhpigott]

poof

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

[baytownwx]

[Senobia]

What's the area between Central America and Cuba? Is there a thread about that area yet? ^^^^

[Senobia]

RE: What do they consider a reliable model?

I have no idea. Classified info, I guess - as it was not disclosed.

[Kohlecane]

RE: What do they consider a reliable model?

I have no idea. Classified info, I guess - as it was not disclosed.

I ment my work computer is not being reliable with some of the models JAvA Script
And i Just wanted a better site, I only have them saved on my laptop at home sooo yeahh

[wxman57]

What's the area between Central America and Cuba? Is there a thread about that area yet? ^^^^

That's another weak wave we've been tracking since it left Africa quite a while ago. It's interacting with another upper-level low near the NW Yucatan. This wave should move into the BOC in a few days then into Mexico. Development is unlikely. Very high shear in the area.

[tropicwatch]

Shear Dryness! The theme of this years hurricane season

[NDG]

One thing that we have today compared to yesterday morning other than there is no deep convection is that we now have a noticeable surface trough by the h85 vorticity, I can even see a weak surface circulation near 26N & 74.5W that is visible on HR visible satellite this morning.

[Blown Away]

SUSPECT AREA...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[blp]

Nice loop of the area.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&ARROW=next&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20140910.1230.goes_13.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_South-x-x.DAY.jpg&

[Steve]

There isn't much out there today. Pressures remain on the high side east of Florida.

A question for those of you near the SE Coast - I seem to remember typically high pressure there (like 30.4x+) fairly often when my sister used to live in Jacksonville. We don't see that here except in winter time under big, cold highs. I didn't think that area would develop, but isn't it pretty typical to have higher pressure in the SW Atlantic than most of the Gulf Coast?

As for the BOC, GFS for days has been stretching that area out. I guess it's just going to be some piled up energy there to watch which does not look likely to develop. However, and I realize this isn't the model run, it's been hinting at an East Gulf storm for a while coming out of the Carribean with maybe 90L/91L or their remnants farther east.

[NDG]

Not much but surface pressures in that area have fallen a 2 mb compared to 24 hrs ago.

[tropicwatch]

Nice loop of the area.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&ARROW=next&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20140910.1230.goes_13.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_South-x-x.DAY.jpg&

Looks like you can see the lower level vorticity in that loop. Thanks for posting.

[jlauderdal]

SUSPECT AREA...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

if this monster heads 270 you get big effects..stay safe

[jhpigott]

Nice loop of the area.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&ARROW=next&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20140910.1230.goes_13.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_South-x-x.DAY.jpg&

Looks like you can see the lower level vorticity in that loop. Thanks for posting.

Yep, some low level turning is clearly evident the past couple hours and there looks to be some moderate convection now firing just to the N and E of the lower level turning

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... x.DAY.jpg&

[Steve H.]

This little bugger is looking better than it has since the convection flareup started. At least their is a surface reflection and it is gaining some convection on the NW region. Never know....that's the way home grown is. Sometimes good - sometimes not so much.

[NDG]

I say Invest 92L by 18z or shortly after, IMO.

[Sanibel]

Weak with a dry SE quadrant, but slowly forming perhaps. If it does develop it should pass over us on its way into the Gulf.

[blp]

Nice mid to low level spin going on now. We need a floater on this thing.

All we need is some deeper convection.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&ARROW=next&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20140910.1230.goes_13.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_South-x-x.DAY.jpg&

[caneman]

Agreed - it seems to be forming convection but prolly not enough time to do much before hitting Florida. Where is expected to head after Florida?