Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning that the progged TC would most likely impact LA and eastward.

[stormlover2013]

lol well of course Joe is going to say that, he's going by climatology and that storms rarely hit Texas this late in October but you never k now

[Weatherwatcher98]

Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning that the progged TC would most likely impact LA and eastward.

That has been my Call all along.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Satellite Shows a 1011MB low just south of the BOC over Mexico.

[stormlover2013]

all about that high pressure and it looks strong if the high pressure doesn't really break down then I could see if hitting tx or SW la that's if anything develops which I still feel is very iffy

[Weatherwatcher98]

all about that high pressure and it looks strong if the high pressure doesn't really break down then I could see if hitting tx or SW la that's if anything develops which I still feel is very iffy

With the fronts coming down, East of LA seems a good bet, and Sub or Non Tropical. Very rare for western GOM this time of year. Interesting Blowup in the SW Caribbean this morning and in the Epac.

[stormlover2013]

yeah and its all about timing also and where the LLC forms, we shall see, what I do know is tons of moisture will be hitting texas and la which is what they need

[Janie2006]

There's a pretty clear difference between GFS and the Euro this morning (again) with the Euro further east, south of Morgan City by the morning of October 25th. The question for me is.....does the ridge break down or does it hold firm? The prognostication choices are pretty clear.....it'll be very dry or very wet! The SSTs are one mitigating factor here, unless GFS has the winning ticket and "Blob" washes ashore near Brownsville.

[stormlover2013]

I think a stronger system which the euro is showing would go more east, but EURO and GFS isn't to far off becasue GFS has been showing La/Tx coast most of the runs

[Yellow Evan]

One thing to keep in mind is that global models tend to underestimate the strength of ridges over Mexico. It would not surprise me if the track shifted east at some point.

[Weatherwatcher98]

There's a pretty clear difference between GFS and the Euro this morning (again) with the Euro further east, south of Morgan City by the morning of October 25th. The question for me is.....does the ridge break down or does it hold firm? The prognostication choices are pretty clear.....it'll be very dry or very wet! The SSTs are one mitigating factor here, unless GFS has the winning ticket and "Blob" washes ashore near Brownsville.

With the fronts coming down, and forecast to continue, it probably won't be purely tropical in nature. Most likely Rain and a little wind, LA East and nothing more. Interesting to note, at the end of gfs run, it has a Storm cutting across Cuba heading north, east of Florida.

[gatorcane]

a lot of discussion on the models but how about the convection blowing up across the NW Caribbean. Is a Kelvin wave passing through?

[CourierPR]

Gatorcane, that's an interesting increase in convection there. Let's see if it persists.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Gatorcane, that's an interesting increase in convection there. Let's see if it persists.

Yes Interesting.

[psyclone]

CPC's 6-10 day outlook seems to lend credence to a western gulf solution with the core of above normal precip potential residing over TX/LA.

[PTrackerLA]

We will gladly take the rain, but the 00z Euro run would chew up the coast pretty good. Won't be getting concerned until we actually have something start to gel in the Gulf of Mexico.


Edit: Interesting that there is very little Ensemble support for the 00z Euro operational.

[LarryWx]

a lot of discussion on the models but how about the convection blowing up across the NW Caribbean. Is a Kelvin wave passing through?

Gator, Courier, Wxwatcher et al,
Interestingly, this increased WC convection is in the area that the Euro/GFS/CMC runs from last late Fri/early Sat. were all developing into a WC TC between now and 10/19 and subsequently threatening FL 10/19-21. The CMC continued to show this on some later runs and the NAVGEM on every run for several more days kept stubbornly doing the same (remember people making fun of the NAVGEM not letting go?). So, in other words, all of these runs were doing that instead of bringing energy into the Bay of Campeche and developing something there in combo with EPAC energy/crossover.

Even after dropping the WC TC, the major models have continued to show rather persistent WC convection for days (into Mon or Tue of next week) develop along with an accompanying weak low. Furthermore, the GFS/Euro have continued to show shear reduce to mainly light levels in the Gulf of Honduras starting now and lasting into at least Mon. Moreover, a very favorable anticyclone at 200 mb has been showing up in the general area. Because of all of these factors, I have been saying that the NHC should at least have this area lemonized with a 10% chance for dev. within 5 days. If that isn't enough, this area is in the heart of the most climo favored area for mid-Oct dev.

It would appear that the only two things that could prevent trop dev. in the WC would be Central American land interaction and nearby competing energy in the EPAC. So, my take is that when the models had a WC TC, neither of those two things was hampering it.

Bottom line: I still think there is easily at least a 10% chance for a WC TC to form from this and that the NHC should be mentioning something. If this stays out over open water in the WC more than progged and if the EPAC doesn't compete too much, this area could very well still develop imo. IF so, then all bets would be off for the future path as steering would be different from what the models now show, a move toward the B of C.

Edit: To repeat what I've said in recent days, I would avoid like the plague betting the farm on this not developing into a WC TC due to the uncertainty along with climo. That doesn't mean I'm predicting it or that I feel the odds favor it. It just means that I'm not nearly confident enough to write this off yet for the WC.

Any other opinions?

[Weatherwatcher98]

I think Future Model Runs will shift east, Partly due to The Blow up off Belize, and Partly due to Climatology. Then again, the Tropics can be unpredictable, so until we have some Area to track all bets are off.

[Weatherwatcher98]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/h5-loop-vis.html Nice fanning of Clouds.

[HurrMark]

GFS running...