2017 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro brings it back, decent cat.2 on this run.

00z GFS stronger this run.

I'd bump the odds higher at this point. Development in 48 hours per the GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF and GFS in much better agreement this run, although the former still has this forming west of the latter and still has this getting blocked before waiting for the next trough.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS landfall on May 13 at El Salvador as a cat 2.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1145 AM PDT Sun May 7 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of of disturbed weather has developed in association with a
low pressure area a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Costa Rica. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 12 PM
PDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF basically the same as the 0z run.

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like a second area has formed further west ...

2. A second area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Some slow development could occur during the next couple of days before this system is absorbed into the above-mentioned disturbance to the east. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90E is up.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS members hinting at Beatriz in 10 days.

[Yellow Evan]

12z EPS members hinting at Beatriz in 10 days.

Pretty sure that's Adrian.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS members hinting at Beatriz in 10 days.

Pretty sure that's Adrian.

Adrian in 10 more days?

Edit: Some members have it all the way up to day 16.

Edit2: it could be Adrian since the GFS is now keeping Adrian till for 16 more days.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/863751425620406272

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, next 4 weeks should be quiet, which then again isn't too unusual. Hopefully the WPAC and ATL get going.

[Kingarabian]

Seeing 11 of the 51 EPS members hinting at development in 10 days.

[Kingarabian]

According to met Joe D'Aleo,

2/3 of storms impacting California and the most southern west states in the U.S, came in an El-Nino. Says to look for that to continue.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... s/70001659 - Accuweather's IMO bullish 19/10/7 forecast. I'll post my own outlook in a week or so.

[Kingarabian]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-east-pacific-hurricane-forecast-warm-waters-to-fuel-frequent-development-of-storms/70001659 - Accuweather's IMO bullish 19/10/7 forecast. I'll post my own outlook in a week or so.

Bullish?

2016 with a weak La Nina had 22/13/6.

Accuweather's forecast can even be deemed conservative considering we'll likely have even more favorable conditions this year.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-east-pacific-hurricane-forecast-warm-waters-to-fuel-frequent-development-of-storms/70001659 - Accuweather's IMO bullish 19/10/7 forecast. I'll post my own outlook in a week or so.

Bullish?

2016 with a weak La Nina had 22/13/6.

Accuweather's forecast can even be deemed conservative considering we'll likely have even more favorable conditions this year.

"These numbers do not reflect any storms that develop in the central Pacific Ocean, including in the Hawaii area." so it doesn't include CPAC. And as I've pointed out, I'm still unsure on ENSO and how that will affect the basin; warm neutral seasons in a +PDO regime have been more active than El Nino modokis.

[Kingarabian]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-east-pacific-hurricane-forecast-warm-waters-to-fuel-frequent-development-of-storms/70001659 - Accuweather's IMO bullish 19/10/7 forecast. I'll post my own outlook in a week or so.

Bullish?

2016 with a weak La Nina had 22/13/6.

Accuweather's forecast can even be deemed conservative considering we'll likely have even more favorable conditions this year.

"These numbers do not reflect any storms that develop in the central Pacific Ocean, including in the Hawaii area." so it doesn't include CPAC. And as I've pointed out, I'm still unsure on ENSO and how that will affect the basin; warm neutral seasons in a +PDO regime have been more active than El Nino modokis.

But last year we practically had only 1 storm form in the CPAC.

And I don't know how we're going to get a Modoki Nino if Nino 1+2 continues to be this warm. Nino 1+2 practically has to tank to -1.0C for there to be a Modoki.

[Alyono]

Bullish?

2016 with a weak La Nina had 22/13/6.

Accuweather's forecast can even be deemed conservative considering we'll likely have even more favorable conditions this year.

"These numbers do not reflect any storms that develop in the central Pacific Ocean, including in the Hawaii area." so it doesn't include CPAC. And as I've pointed out, I'm still unsure on ENSO and how that will affect the basin; warm neutral seasons in a +PDO regime have been more active than El Nino modokis.

But last year we practically had only 1 storm form in the CPAC.

And I don't know how we're going to get a Modoki Nino if Nino 1+2 continues to be this warm. Nino 1+2 practically has to tank to -1.0C for there to be a Modoki.

I'd consider it a Modoki if the warming is centered in the CPAC instead of the EPAC. That has a different effect on the Atlantic and the EPAC (especially near HI). 2015 was a borderline Modoki if one goes where the el niño is centered

[Kingarabian]

"These numbers do not reflect any storms that develop in the central Pacific Ocean, including in the Hawaii area." so it doesn't include CPAC. And as I've pointed out, I'm still unsure on ENSO and how that will affect the basin; warm neutral seasons in a +PDO regime have been more active than El Nino modokis.

But last year we practically had only 1 storm form in the CPAC.

And I don't know how we're going to get a Modoki Nino if Nino 1+2 continues to be this warm. Nino 1+2 practically has to tank to -1.0C for there to be a Modoki.

I'd consider it a Modoki if the warming is centered in the CPAC instead of the EPAC. That has a different effect on the Atlantic and the EPAC (especially near HI). 2015 was a borderline Modoki if one goes where the el niño is centered

But what about the warmth in the eastern Nino regions?

I can't consider an El Nino a Modoki one if the waters in the eastern regions are at weak/moderate levels, even if the waters in the CPAC are warmer.