Strong Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands (INVEST 94L is up)

[Kingarabian]

A few things to remember regarding the Euro.
1) It struggles some with forecasting TC genesis south of 20N I believe.
2) It tends to show development in the long-range only to drop it in it's mid-range then picks it back up just right before it happen.

It showed on and off development with Bret initially. Has not done the same with this wave.

[gatorcane]

The UKMET has joined the GFS with some development:

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS the word is uncertainty.

GFS model guidance
suggests that another tropical wave with an associated surface low
will approach the northeast Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.
However, there is too much uncertainty in this forecast.

[gatorcane]

18Z MU GFS with development again with a south shift with the track and stronger cyclone than 12Z.. Into the Hebert Box again and through northern Lesser Antilles.

[SFLcane]

Lol...oh GFS its to early for this. Looks like nice trof waiting to kick this out to sea.

edit.. ridge builds drives it west

[SFLcane]

Hurricane right of Florida coast. I get married the 15th.

Well thats enough fun for me. Oh and another developing CV storm right behind. To take away from this could mean one heck of cv season coming.

[Bocadude85]

Interesting GFS run. It's been a long time since the Florida east coast has had a hurricane scare in July. I'm sure the GFS is off its rocker but still an interesting run.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS likes to toy with my emotions.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

http://i64.tinypic.com/34zysl4.jpg

Umm, okay. No.

[gatorcane]

The GFS apparently thinks it is August or September as it develops another one behind this one.

Congrats SFLcane!

[Alyono]

The GFS apparently thinks it is August or September as it develops another one behind this one.

Congrats SFLcane!

that's exactly what the CFS has consistently been showing for July

[OuterBanker]

According to that model it's a tropical storm. 102 kph is around 64 mph if I remember correctly.

[floridasun78]

http://i64.tinypic.com/34zysl4.jpg

look like Matthew

[floridasun78]

look like nhc dont like gfs their not getting idea of gfs

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro joins then we may have a player here and if not it's probably another phantom storm

[floridasun78]

if this is Euro do show weak low forming with wave but kill it right alway http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ropicsEuro &pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017063012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=570 like what other say let relax not thing look here i Euro show little

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I'd say it's probably close to a 50/50 shot of tropical development. You have the GFS and the UKMET on the development camp, while the Euro and the CMC are on the no development camp.

[TheStormExpert]

look like nhc dont like gfs their not getting idea of gfs

If the GFS still shows it in a couple days they'll more than likely bite. If the Euro joins in they'll likely mention it sooner.

[cycloneye]

A little bit better looking.



Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12