Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[Aric Dunn]

I disagree, central section of the Island is not that mountainous.

again... nothing is close enough ( besides the various other issues) to use obs from cuba...

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/59d5399c_2119_15e.png

On hr vis satellite loop is very clear that there are no west to east moving low level clouds south of the vorticity.
But the surface trough has become sharper in the past few hours. With the high shear all I see is a surface broad closed circulation forming later on, IMO.

unfortuantely I disagree and I have been cloud tracking the low level clouds..

[tgenius]

Last couple of days, our weather has been unsettled to say the least. Squally.....with an increasing breeze and increasing squall frequency now too.

This morning around 4-5am I was awakened from the rain + the wind against my windows; Was a bit surprising to be honest.

[NDG]

Another thing to point that backs my claim that the circulation is not at the surface is that the h70 vorticity is stronger than the h85 vorticity which is still very elongated.

[Nimbus]

The way the high Cirrus is streaming away clockwise to the north would seem to indicate some kind of conversion. When will we get this thread in "Active"?

[NDG]

The way the high Cirrus is streaming away clockwise to the north would seem to indicate some kind of conversion. When will we get this thread in "Active"?

This thread will stay Talking Tropics as long as it is not an Invest, though I agree this should be an Invest being so close to FL but with low percentage for tropical/subtropical development.

[northjaxpro]

The way the high Cirrus is streaming away clockwise to the north would seem to indicate some kind of conversion. When will we get this thread in "Active"?

Exactly Nimbus and a good observation. Despite the shear, there is enough upper level outflow to ventilate the system's surface reflection once that is established. I think we will get at least a broad Low Pressure to finally reflect at the surface later tonight imo, and I personally think that has already occurred.

[Aric Dunn]

The way the high Cirrus is streaming away clockwise to the north would seem to indicate some kind of conversion. When will we get this thread in "Active"?

Exactly Nimbus and a good observation. Despite the shear, there is enough upper level outflow to ventilated the system 's surface reflection once that is established. I think we will get at least a broad Low Pressure to finally reflect at the surface later tonight imo.

yeah, it is of course only in the intial formative stage and being sheared the low level circ will jump around with every convective burst..

this is of course assuming the dynamics dont change and the divergence continues to produce convection.

[Nimbus]

The upper level low providing the shear has cut off and should roll south and fill fairly soon which might effect the tracking of TD 16 as well as reduce shear over this area.

[Aric Dunn]

18z 850 mb vorticity continues the increase quite a bit from the 12z which matches well with observed sat..


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

The way the high Cirrus is streaming away clockwise to the north would seem to indicate some kind of conversion. When will we get this thread in "Active"?

Exactly Nimbus and a good observation. Despite the shear, there is enough upper level outflow to ventilated the system 's surface reflection once that is established. I think we will get at least a broad Low Pressure to finally reflect at the surface later tonight imo.

yeah, it is of course only in the intial formative stage and being sheared the low level circ will jump around with every convective burst..

this is of course assuming the dynamics dont change and the divergence continues to produce convection.

Right. But, for the next 36 hours, I don"t see the dynamics being negatively affected. Convection will continue to fire at least for this time span I referenced imo.

[Aric Dunn]

Exactly Nimbus and a good observation. Despite the shear, there is enough upper level outflow to ventilated the system 's surface reflection once that is established. I think we will get at least a broad Low Pressure to finally reflect at the surface later tonight imo.

yeah, it is of course only in the intial formative stage and being sheared the low level circ will jump around with every convective burst..

this is of course assuming the dynamics dont change and the divergence continues to produce convection.

Right. But, for the next 36 hours, I don"t see the dynamics being negatively affected. Convection will continue to fire at least for this time span I referenced imo.

I agree

[gatorcane]

Well lots of watches and warnings coming out from NWS Miami now...these are similar to what you would see if it were a TS. So TS or no TS, rough conditions for South Florida.

...FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR EAST COASTAL AREAS....
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...GALE WARNING FOR ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...

The short range models are also showing the helicity to be
increasing late tonight into Thursday over South Florida as the
tropical wave passes through the area. This will allow for a few
of the thunderstorms to become strong with the primary impacts
being gusty winds along with a few weak tornadoes especially over
the east coast metro areas and the adjacent Atlantic waters.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[gatorcane]

Ft. Lauderale-Hollywood Int airport with a wind gust to 40mph as of last observation:

04 15:53 E 24 G 40 4.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy FEW012 BKN023 BKN036 OVC250 76 75 97% NA 75 29.96 1014.6 0.06

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFLL.html

[Aric Dunn]

Ft. Lauderale-Hollywood Int airport with a wind gust to 40mph as of last observation:

04 15:53 E 24 G 40 4.00 Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy FEW012 BKN023 BKN036 OVC250 76 75 97% NA 75 29.96 1014.6 0.06

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFLL.html

Not surprised. Also the tornado threat will increase as the low level flow around the circ causes more veering winds as it expands. winds should shift to the NE soon...

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne also issuing flood watches for their counties beginning tomorrow morning.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...Substantial moisture increase is shown
overnight as tropical wave south of the area moves downstream.
Veering winds will substantially usher in showers and embedded
storms late tonight and into early Thursday initially south of
Cape Canaveral then spreading North and inland during the day.
Flood watch will commence with the Thu morning pkg, coinciding
with higher rain chcs. One to three inch rain amounts will be
forecast for the area as a whole by evening with some locally
higher amounts possible mainly near the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

NWS Melbourne also issuing flood watches for their counties beginning tomorrow morning.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...Substantial moisture increase is shown
overnight as tropical wave south of the area moves downstream.
Veering winds will substantially usher in showers and embedded
storms late tonight and into early Thursday initially south of
Cape Canaveral then spreading North and inland during the day.
Flood watch will commence with the Thu morning pkg, coinciding
with higher rain chcs. One to three inch rain amounts will be
forecast for the area as a whole by evening with some locally
higher amounts possible mainly near the coast.

well not surprised Melbourne would as the flooding from the 5 to 10 inches of rain that fell there a couple days ago saturated everything

[Aric Dunn]

The last hour the "center" is becoming a more little defined with convection now starting build around/over it with some more noticable cloudlines on the SE side. Radar ( though high up) showing more and more north to south moving convection on west side.. wont be much longer if convection keep up like this.. of course will be sheared but major point is how it will affect "NAte"

[boca]

What is the steering currents now? It's Not moving much.

[Aric Dunn]

21z vorticity increasing even more.. now nearly matching our TD to the south.. satellite showing more and more evidence of a low level circ... sheared with the MLC tilted to the nne..


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... om=Z&time=

[Aric Dunn]

luckily it will be moving closer into radar range so tonight it will be easier to track..