Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[SFLcane]

Impressive convection for sure..

[LarryWx]

Impressive convection for sure..

Indeed. This is an excellent loop because you can also see some energy to its NNE spinning near Jamaica, which could easily later compete with this and thus prevent this from ever getting all that strong.

[chris_fit]

To be honest it looks like the Disturbance near Panama is about to eat the DIsturbance near Jamaica for dinner.

[ronjon]

^That's the area that may end up keeping the area north of Panama from going gangbusters due to competition.

That feature is at the upper levels - can clearly be seen on WV imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[SFLcane]

What i dont understand is the NHC almost has this not develop till its nearly in the GOM. I think it will be much sooner then that we shall see

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS much stronger with the Panama Disturbance through 72 hrs...

Here is the latest 4 run Trend....

[LarryWx]

^That's the area that may end up keeping the area north of Panama from going gangbusters due to competition.

That feature is at the upper levels - can clearly be seen on WV imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Yes, it is mainly at upper levels now.

[ronjon]

Notice that little circulation that crosses S FL into the GOM is also much weaker on the 12z GFS.

[chris_fit]

GFS @ 102 hrs

[chris_fit]

Going to New Orleans. GFS builds a Ridge over FL

[caneman]

Off topic. Can someone tell me why we are having such strong winds in the Tampa Bay area?

[ronjon]

12z GEM off the west tip of Cuba at 84 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017100312&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=0

[gatorcane]

CMC is northern Gulf coast. Model trends for now are away from peninsula Florida.

[stormlover2013]

good ole cmc, high pressue looks to be on florida, also it depends where the system forms, if something develops I could see this being a la system, cold front isn't as strong as it shows on the cmc and gfs, euro shows stronger front

[psyclone]

Off topic. Can someone tell me why we are having such strong winds in the Tampa Bay area?

Strong high to the north is yielding a tight gradient over the peninsula. Winds are stronger on the east coast where the flow is onshore. Fairly common to see this in the Spring and Fall.

[ronjon]

Models are becoming unanimous on developing a tropical cyclone now in the western caribbean and moving it north into the GOM in 4-5 days. Here we go again.

[psyclone]

CMC is northern Gulf coast. Model trends for now are away from peninsula Florida.

Plenty of systems have reached the north central Gulf coast in early October...rare for Texas but not so rare from Louisiana eastward so I'd be watching in that area for sure.

[chris_fit]

12Z guidance Def trending stronger and W. Looks like New Orleans Area is under the gun as of these runs. Let's see what the EURO brings. EURO has been the most consistent with this system. Whether or not it was consistently wrong or right remains to be seen - but it has been consistent.

[NDG]

I see that the GFS is finally on board with the Euro.

In case anyone is wondering the waters of the western Caribbean and most of GOM are above average for this time of the year, very warm across the central GOM. 80-86 deg F all across the GOM.

[ronjon]

I would think with the global model consensus NHC will bump the odds up above 30% in the 5 day now.