Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[gatorcane]

One other thing to point out is that the 850mb vorticity associated with this wave has actually increased the past few hours but the GFS is not showing this. Look between 10N and 20N and around 37W and 38W:



Loop sat image and you can see the spin:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Hammy]

Surprised nobody posted the Euro that has this wave in GOM to Louisiana from days 7 thru 10.

I noticed the wrinkle on the wide 850MB wind map but didn't bother because it looked like nothing--I really need to start checking the regional maps more and not just full basin...

[cycloneye]

Is GFS waking up with this wave? As it gets closer to Texas/Louisiana coast,it gets more defined.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

Eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W/37W
from 04N to 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Broken to overcast
multilayer clouds along with scattered moderate isolated strong
convection are noted where the wave axis crosses the monsoon
trough, and to the south of the monsoon trough. The scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 07N
between 35W and 37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 30 nm of line from 11N34W to 11N37W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough
within 120 nm east of the wave and between the trough and 10N
within 120 nm east of the wave.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro again keeps the wave all the way this time to SouthCentral Texas.

[cycloneye]

Sunday morning discussion of the passage of wave thru Puerto Rico.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
A weak upper level trough extending southwest from a TUTT low to
Hispaniola will contribute to some good upper level dynamics
Wednesday. The tropical wave will pass through Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday and will bring a good supply of moisture with it.
Although moisture is better on Thursday, current indications are
that the upper level dynamics and the heavy mid and upper level
clouds present on Thursday should limit convection more then than
on Wednesday. Moisture continues above 2 inches of columnar waters
through Friday and then begins to taper off Saturday and Sunday.
Even so showers in the normal diurnal pattern for easterly flow
will continue and showers will be likely on the eastern flanks of
the Luquillo range in the nights and early morning and over
western Puerto Rico in the afternoons through Sunday.

With soils saturated already from the rain that has fallen in the
west northwest third of Puerto Rico, the additional heavy rains
on Wednesday and Thursday are likely to bring urban and small
stream flooding to the area and local rivers may approach flood
stage. Mudslides in steep terrain will also be possible.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS mantains wave all the way to South Texas. (Same track as ECMWF)

[NDG]

Eric Webb

@webberweather

Certainly doesn't look like much atm, but given its virtually the peak of the hurricane season & there's legitimate support from the EPS, this easterly wave embedded in the monsoon trough around 35-40W bears watching as it nears the SW Atlantic &/or Gulf of Mexico next week

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033711119402262529

[jasons2k]

So yesterday the models had this moving mostly towards Louisiana. Today it’s shifted to South Texas. This one needs to be watched as the Gulf is boiling with untapped energy.

[stormlover2013]

Yep I agree jason

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

So yesterday the models had this moving mostly towards Louisiana. Today it’s shifted to South Texas. This one needs to be watched as the Gulf is boiling with untapped energy.

Yes and the Gulf is likely the most favorable regions in the basin at the moment.

[Cpv17]

So yesterday the models had this moving mostly towards Louisiana. Today it’s shifted to South Texas. This one needs to be watched as the Gulf is boiling with untapped energy.

Yes and the Gulf is likely the most favorable regions in the basin at the moment.

Water temps are very warm in the Gulf to almost hot, but how’s the shear looking?

[cycloneye]

There is once again GFS with the wave towards Texas.

[Astromanía]

Hi! I'm new in this forum
Is there a chance for this 'potentially system' to get Mexico? most especifically Nuevo Leon? we need the rain quickly, Monterrey is in crisis, dry year so far and state dams at 40% level.

[abajan]

Hi! I'm new in this forum
Is there a chance for this 'potentially system' to get Mexico? most especifically Nuevo Leon? we need the rain quickly, Monterrey is in crisis, dry year so far and state dams at 40% level.

Welcome Aboard!

As to your question, at this point in time, it's impossible to state with any level of certainty, where this potential system will go, assuming it even develops. The best I can advise, is to keep monitoring its progress.

[Astromanía]

Hi! I'm new in this forum
Is there a chance for this 'potentially system' to get Mexico? most especifically Nuevo Leon? we need the rain quickly, Monterrey is in crisis, dry year so far and state dams at 40% level.

Welcome Aboard!

As to your question, at this point in time, it's impossible to state with any level of certainty, where this potential system will go, assuming it even develops. The best I can advise, is to keep monitoring its progress.

thanks for the info and the welcome

[wxGuy]

[gatorcane]

Despite models backing off some on development (for now), this wave needs close watching if it makes it into the Gulf or Bahamas given the untapped energy that awaits with the high SSTs.

[wxGuy]

Despite models backing off some on development (for now), this wave needs close watching if it makes it into the Gulf or Bahamas given the untapped energy that awaits with the high SSTs.

current loop eddy forecast


sst hi res