Continuing GOM Watch

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11453
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#121 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:34 am

Looks like the swirl just hit the shore.
Was lucky the UL High strengthened to shear this.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3364
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#122 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:46 am

Not coming ashore as a depression but there will be some training rains in some area's.
http://tropicwatch.info/tallahasseeradar.html
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#123 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:50 am

Center is about to come ashore
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
fwbbreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:09 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#124 Postby fwbbreeze » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:59 am

Nice little swirl just west of Panama City

Image
what is a fair number cube
1 likes   

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 761
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#125 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:16 am

From the ground looks pretty. Clearly see NW winds aloft pushing tops offshore. Check out visible sat!
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#126 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:21 am

Well unnamed makes landfall lol. The final send off for a tc that never should have been.
You were a happpy system.. not quite TS but more than swirl/vort..
Have a lovely time flooding areas of the SE. :p.
8 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
CFLHurricane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
Location: Floriduh

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#127 Postby CFLHurricane » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Well unnamed makes landfall lol. The final send off for a tc that never should have been.
You were a happpy system.. not quite TS but more than swirl/vort..
Have a lovely time flooding areas of the SE. :p.


The swirl is quite vigorous this afternoon- whether this is a final send off remains to be seen.
0 likes   
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#128 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:54 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Well unnamed makes landfall lol. The final send off for a tc that never should have been.
You were a happpy system.. not quite TS but more than swirl/vort..
Have a lovely time flooding areas of the SE. :p.


The swirl is quite vigorous this afternoon- whether this is a final send off remains to be seen.


well there is a small chance it gets pushed back offshore..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#129 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:05 pm

When conditions are more favorable over land than water, you know something's wrong.
6 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#130 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:17 pm

You can tell that the surface circulation is weak with it when the seabreeze is able take over without a problem at the surface.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#131 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:19 pm

Hammy wrote:When conditions are more favorable over land than water, you know something's wrong.



As crazy as this is, since the swirl came ashore , it made a right turn east and has been mov ing right along near the Florida/Georgia state line , currently situated just north of Tallahassee near Thomasville, GA according to Tallahassee composite radar.

Also, the system is still getting a very good inflow of moisyure from off Apalachee Bay this hour Nand i even appears that the circulation is actually more defined as it ever has been while it has been pover land throughout the say.

What an unusual season we have had thus far. It has been something. Systems struggling to form, batitlng hostile conditions, and now seemingly finding better conditions over land? :double:
2 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 761
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#132 Postby stormhunter7 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:22 pm

The lowest pressure I had was 1012mb this morning. It just passed about 5-7 miles to my W/NW/N/NE. Definitely warm humid air on the south side. Pretty cool watching the upper winds this morning pushing the tops to the south, looking from the coast.
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#133 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:23 pm

NDG wrote:You can tell that the surface circulation is weak with it when the seabreeze is able take over without a problem at the surface.


Also diurnal heatng induced convection over land is also a part of this as well.
3 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6246
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#134 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:27 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:When conditions are more favorable over land than water, you know something's wrong.



As crazy as this is, since the swirl came ashore , it made a right turn east and has been mov ing right along near the Florida/Georgia state line , currently situated just north of Tallahassee near Thomasville, GA according to Tallahassee composite radar.

Also, the system is still getting a very good inflow of moisyure from off Apalachee Bay this hour Nand i even appears that the circulation is actually more defined as it ever has been while it has been pover land throughout the say.

What an unusual season we have had thus far. It has been something. Systems struggling to form, batitlng hostile conditions, and now seemingly finding better conditions over land? :double:


Sometimes following unclassified tropical entities is actually more interesting and is of course a lot less worrisome. Give me all of these types of systems any day and that will make it interesting enough for me. These little things can really be fascinating and good for learning.
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#135 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:31 pm

LarryWx wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:When conditions are more favorable over land than water, you know something's wrong.



As crazy as this is, since the swirl came ashore , it made a right turn east and has been mov ing right along near the Florida/Georgia state line , currently situated just north of Tallahassee near Thomasville, GA according to Tallahassee composite radar.

Also, the system is still getting a very good inflow of moisyure from off Apalachee Bay this hour Nand i even appears that the circulation is actually more defined as it ever has been while it has been pover land throughout the say.

What an unusual season we have had thus far. It has been something. Systems struggling to form, batitlng hostile conditions, and now seemingly finding better conditions over land? :double:


Sometimes following unclassified tropical entities is actually more interesting and is of course a lot less worrisome. Give me all of these types of systems any day and that will make it interesting enough for me. These little things can really be fascinating and good for learning.


Agreed !
I was very intrigued yesterday afternoon and evening with how well defined the circ was and the convective pattern.. always amazing to watch stuff like that evolve.
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#136 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:37 pm

LarryWx wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:When conditions are more favorable over land than water, you know something's wrong.



As crazy as this is, since the swirl came ashore , it made a right turn east and has been mov ing right along near the Florida/Georgia state line , currently situated just north of Tallahassee near Thomasville, GA according to Tallahassee composite radar.

Also, the system is still getting a very good inflow of moisyure from off Apalachee Bay this hour Nand i even appears that the circulation is actually more defined as it ever has been while it has been pover land throughout the say.

What an unusual season we have had thus far. It has been something. Systems struggling to form, batitlng hostile conditions, and now seemingly finding better conditions over land? :double:


Sometimes following unclassified tropical entities is actually more interesting and is of course a lot less worrisome. Give me all of these types of systems any day and that will make it interesting enough for me. These little things can really be fascinating and good for learning.


Oh yes absolutely Larry. I made a mention yesterday of what an interesting time I have had with this persistent trough, which has parked itself over my region.and across the Northern GOM now for more than a week now. I have always found analyzing and studying these meso-vorts and their evolutions quite fascinating. We have had several of them thiis week down here. It really makes good synoptic, analytic discussions for both pro mets and analysts, and weather enthusiasts all around!!
6 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11453
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#137 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:00 pm

Still keeping an eye out here this week.
Shear is going to start diminishing Tuesday and looks pretty good through the end of the week, especially the NW GOM.
GFS is hinting as something Friday and Saturday.
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#138 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:13 pm

GCANE wrote:Still keeping an eye out here this week.
Shear is going to start diminishing Tuesday and looks pretty good through the end of the week, especially the NW GOM.
GFS is hinting as something Friday and Saturday.


That would be from the system currently in the Caribbean and is the Euro showing the possibility of development not so much the GFS.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11453
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#139 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:55 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11453
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#140 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:58 am

Changing thread title:
"NW GOM Watch - Euro Support"
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 211 guests