Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[NDG]

Long range EPS is starting to hint that there could be some possible development in the south central Caribbean in the 7-14 day range before the MJO leaves our part of the world by the end of the month.

[NDG]

Trough axis is fairly close to the Nica coast but still offshore. IMO.

[SFLcane]

Long range EPS is starting to hint that there could be some possible development in the south central Caribbean in the 7-14 day range before the MJO leaves our part of the world by the end of the month.

Very long range and weak signal for now.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located along the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
most of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and much
of Central America. This system is forecast to continue moving
west-northwestward across northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras,
southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which will inhibit
tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land
interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

Long range EPS is starting to hint that there could be some possible development in the south central Caribbean in the 7-14 day range before the MJO leaves our part of the world by the end of the month.

Very long range and weak signal for now.

The 12zEuro seems to be show something starting to focus at the end of its run in the western Caribbean, while the GFS seems to be trending away from development

[AnnularCane]

Long range EPS is starting to hint that there could be some possible development in the south central Caribbean in the 7-14 day range before the MJO leaves our part of the world by the end of the month.

Very long range and weak signal for now.

The 12zEuro seems to be show something starting to focus at the end of its run in the western Caribbean, while the GFS seems to be trending away from development

The GFS and Euro flat out refuse to agree on anything. And I mean anything!

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorm over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with
a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is
forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern
Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which is likely
to inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days
due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is
forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where
conditions could become a little more conducive for some
organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America
during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides,
especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[GCANE]

Looks like this will likely develop in the EPAC now. Vorts are much better defined there.
If it does spin up in the EPAC, it'll pull in all the moist air in the region.
Development in the BOC will then be highly unlikely.

Shear across the Atlantic Basin is picking up.
Cold fronts are forecast to intensify across the CONUS.
I think chances are nearly zero now for anything to effect CONUS for the remainder of the season.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro

0z Euro ensembles

6z GFS


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[stormlover2013]

just will be some good rains

[SoupBone]

Looks like this will likely develop in the EPAC now. Vorts are much better defined there.
If it does spin up in the EPAC, it'll pull in all the moist air in the region.
Development in the BOC will then be highly unlikely.

Shear across the Atlantic Basin is picking up.
Cold fronts are forecast to intensify across the CONUS.
I think chances are nearly zero now for anything to effect CONUS for the remainder of the season.

Interesting take. The "regular" weather forecasts for at least the Southwest GoM US region has cool/cold fronts coming down, apparently 2 of them this week into the weekend. Not much of a chance for anything to threaten the Texas coast for now.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS in Mobile began to mention this Low in this mornings AFD......

"LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Surface high pressure will
continue to build across the southeast conus through Thursday into
Friday. This will keep a dry weather pattern across the forecast
area through noon Friday. Scattered to numerous rain showers and a
chance of thunderstorms will gradually return to our area Friday
afternoon through the weekend as the surface high moves east of
the region, allowing a warm front and gulf moisture to advance
northward. In addition, an weak area of low pressure forming over
the western gulf may move northeast toward the north central gulf
coast late in the week."

[TallyTracker]

Some rains along the northern Gulf Coast would be welcome. NWS Tallahassee just reported that most of our area hasn’t seen much rain the past 30-40 days. It’s starting to become a severe drought. Just don’t want the wind!

[rolltide]

Some rains along the northern Gulf Coast would be welcome. NWS Tallahassee just reported that most of our area hasn’t seen much rain the past 30-40 days. It’s starting to become a severe drought. Just don’t want the wind!

Could really use some rain in Pensacola. I've had 0.15 inches of rain in the last 45 days in my gauge.

[NDG]

Looks like this will likely develop in the EPAC now. Vorts are much better defined there.
If it does spin up in the EPAC, it'll pull in all the moist air in the region.
Development in the BOC will then be highly unlikely.

Shear across the Atlantic Basin is picking up.
Cold fronts are forecast to intensify across the CONUS.
I think chances are nearly zero now for anything to effect CONUS for the remainder of the season.

Never say never before October ends. IMO.
Regarding the possibility of development over in the BOC, UL conditions are forecasted to be better over the southern BOC that on the Pacific side of MX, the latest Euro is not aggressive at all the EPAC side of this monsoonal broad of low pressure, and the NHC thinks if it develops it will remain fairly weak due to proximity to Mexico's EPAC coast.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just
offshore the coast of Mexico. By late this week, the proximity to
land could inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[crownweather]

Recon flight planned for the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 141445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 14 OCTOBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 19.5N 94.5W FOR 16/2100Z.

[SoupBone]

Looks like this will likely develop in the EPAC now. Vorts are much better defined there.
If it does spin up in the EPAC, it'll pull in all the moist air in the region.
Development in the BOC will then be highly unlikely.

Shear across the Atlantic Basin is picking up.
Cold fronts are forecast to intensify across the CONUS.
I think chances are nearly zero now for anything to effect CONUS for the remainder of the season.

Never say never before October ends. IMO.
Regarding the possibility of development over in the BOC, UL conditions are forecasted to be better over the southern BOC that on the Pacific side of MX, the latest Euro is not aggressive at all the EPAC side of this monsoonal broad of low pressure, and the NHC thinks if it develops it will remain fairly weak due to proximity to Mexico's EPAC coast.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just
offshore the coast of Mexico. By late this week, the proximity to
land could inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Am I reading that right? It went from 0/20 this morning to 50/80?

[SconnieCane]

Looks like this will likely develop in the EPAC now. Vorts are much better defined there.
If it does spin up in the EPAC, it'll pull in all the moist air in the region.
Development in the BOC will then be highly unlikely.

Shear across the Atlantic Basin is picking up.
Cold fronts are forecast to intensify across the CONUS.
I think chances are nearly zero now for anything to effect CONUS for the remainder of the season.

Never say never before October ends. IMO.
Regarding the possibility of development over in the BOC, UL conditions are forecasted to be better over the southern BOC that on the Pacific side of MX, the latest Euro is not aggressive at all the EPAC side of this monsoonal broad of low pressure, and the NHC thinks if it develops it will remain fairly weak due to proximity to Mexico's EPAC coast.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just
offshore the coast of Mexico. By late this week, the proximity to
land could inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Am I reading that right? It went from 0/20 this morning to 50/80?

No, that one is from the Pacific side. Atlantic/BOC one is still 0/20.

[ronjon]

Looks pretty disorganized on 12z GFS and CMC although both show weak low pressure and large area of rain impacting the northern gulf coast and north Florida this weekend.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro still indicating a weak tropical storm impacting Louisiana this weekend: