Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

[northjaxpro]

Shear is quite divergent, water is quite warm, moisture is quite moist. Just takes time to build an LLC when all of those factors are focused away (under the MCV) from the former broad low level center (now visible well west of Florida).

Good analysis!

well nortjaxpro this particular outcome will finally bring you much-needed rain since something developing east of florida looks less likely.

You are not kidding. We desperately need rain here in Northeast Florida. I have only measured just under 1/10 of an inch for the entire month of May to this juncture.

Hopefully this deep tropical moisture with this current system will bring about some good rain here , especially tomorrow, as whatever becomes of this system drifts N/NE up along the Florida East Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else notice this crazy outflow boundary racing towards our system... has about 6 to 8 hours before it reaches the broad circ.

but I wonder if it will cause some increased low level convergence ?

wind shift behind it is from the west ... might see some increased convection well ahead of it.

[jlauderdal]

Good analysis!

well nortjaxpro this particular outcome will finally bring you much-needed rain since something developing east of florida looks less likely.

You are not kidding. We desperately need rain here in Northeast Florida. I have only measured just under 1/10 of an inch for the entire month of May to this juncture.

Hopefully this deep tropical moisture with this current system will bring about some good rain here , especially tomorrow, as whatever becomes of this system drifts N/NE up along the Florida East Coast.

we were in the same drought conditions then the middle of May came around and its been 15+ inches since then...hopefully you get some of this moisture

[Ivanhater]

NW Florida is in a severe drought but hopefully some rain will come from this

[Ubuntwo]

12z gfs quickly spins something of this at ~18 hr. Closed isobar and far more defined vortex than past runs. It's nothing more than a depression but still pretty cool.

[Aric Dunn]

This particular area is looking nice a juicy for a circ to try and come together as the area of convection west of key west lifts north into the upper divergence and stronger low level vorticity area

[northjaxpro]

12z gfs quickly spins something of this at ~18 hr. Closed isobar and far more defined vorticity than past runs. It's nothing more than a depression but still pretty cool.

The 12Z GFS closes of a 1007 mb Low at Cape Canaveral at 06Z tomorrow morning. It then drifts it N/NE to just off the Northeast Florida coast east of Daytona by 12Z tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Broad closed circ is slowly tightening. a burst of deep convection would tighten it up. pressure 1009mb

[typhoonty]

One of the more epic forecasting busts of the last several years is taking place for coastal southwest Florida. We had 100 POPs today, supposed to be overcast all day. Instead it''s mostly sunny and temperatures are pushing 90 here, with only T since midnight. Reminiscent of my worst forecast bust, TS Isaac 2012. Never underestimate the potential dry slot between a weak tropical feature and the convergence brought by onshore winds on the east coast.

[floridasun78]

alot flood warring issue past few hour for dade county with this system over 2.00 inch rain fall in miami area

[toad strangler]

One of the more epic forecasting busts of the last several years is taking place for coastal southwest Florida. We had 100 POPs today, supposed to be overcast all day. Instead it''s mostly sunny and temperatures are pushing 90 here, with only T since midnight. Reminiscent of my worst forecast bust, TS Isaac 2012. Never underestimate the potential dry slot between a weak tropical feature and the convergence brought by onshore winds on the east coast.

Ahhhh location location location. It can be a real %!#* can’t it? Been there for sure.

[jlauderdal]

One of the more epic forecasting busts of the last several years is taking place for coastal southwest Florida. We had 100 POPs today, supposed to be overcast all day. Instead it''s mostly sunny and temperatures are pushing 90 here, with only T since midnight. Reminiscent of my worst forecast bust, TS Isaac 2012. Never underestimate the potential dry slot between a weak tropical feature and the convergence brought by onshore winds on the east coast.

That heating helped to provide lift and enhance our heavy rainfall..6 inches in 2 days...17 inches in the last 10 days

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is dropping fast over the eastern Gulf.. it is like 5 mph away from being marginally favorable. lol

[psyclone]

One of the more epic forecasting busts of the last several years is taking place for coastal southwest Florida. We had 100 POPs today, supposed to be overcast all day. Instead it''s mostly sunny and temperatures are pushing 90 here, with only T since midnight. Reminiscent of my worst forecast bust, TS Isaac 2012. Never underestimate the potential dry slot between a weak tropical feature and the convergence brought by onshore winds on the east coast.

One of the keys to robust convection is some surface heating which was non existent yesterday. We have a little today on the western side of the peninsula and the rain and thunderstorms are intense with very high rain rates. I just got under a shower that looked pretty insignificant on radar and it was really heavy...as is often the case in a tropical atmosphere.. Convective rainfall is a tough nut to crack with insane differences over short distances ..very much like lake effect snow. We can always find busts in such a set up but there are plenty of people in west central and southwest florida getting the lousy memorial day weather they expected.

[chaser1]

Most recent radar presentation is depicting what appears to be a fairly definable low level circulation from just north of Cape Coral and/or possibly extending westward just offshore. The area itself appears to be moving slowly northward. Will have to watch and see if there's any pressure falls and overall continuity as we move into the evening hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Most recent radar presentation is depicting what appears to be a fairly definable low level circulation from just north of Cape Coral and/or possibly extending westward just offshore. The area itself appears to be moving slowly northward. Will have to watch and see if there's any pressure falls and overall continuity as we move into the evening hours.

yep been watching it. local seabreeze has helped with this feature.

it will get pulled north then bend west

interesting system for sure lol

[Aric Dunn]

let see if this helps get some more convergence on the east side to build deep convection and tighten this up. pressure nearly 1008mb

[CyclonicFury]

STWO 20%/20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252119
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough
of low pressure extending across Florida and the adjacent Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico waters.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms extending across Florida, the
Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low could form
along the surface trough just off the east coast of Florida and
move northward toward Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and
Wednesday, the low is not expected to become a tropical cyclone due
to strong upper-level winds.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of southern and central Florida tonight,
spreading northward to coastal sections of northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty winds
could also produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coasts of eastern Florida, Georgia,
and the Carolinas through Wednesday. For additional information,
see products from your local National Weather Service office. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 AM EDT Tuesday, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[drezee]

Nice Live Visible Animation

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=27&lon=-85&zoom=1&width=1000&height=1000&quality=100&type=Animation&numframes=20

[NDG]

Lots of vorticities along the surface trough, that's about it besides the continuing heavy rains across SE FL.
GFS and Euro like the eastern part of the trough over FL breaking off and having a chance to develop before moving onshore Wednesday.