Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#121 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:21 am

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#122 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:22 am

98L should happen soon...

6z Euro has a TS is 30 hrs ish..

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#123 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:29 am

Full loop... Northern Islands should take notice.

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#124 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:30 am

06z Euro stronger... :eek:

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#125 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:37 am

SFLcane wrote:06z Euro stronger... :eek:

[im.png[/img]


It also shows the system going north of the islands similar to the Ukmet and Icon.....unlike the GFS which takes it into the Caribbean


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#126 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:42 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z Euro stronger... :eek:

[im.png[/url]


It also shows the system going north of the islands similar to the Ukmet and Icon.....unlike the GFS which takes it into the Caribbean


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


actually the last few frames show nearly a due west track. and any slight deviation to the south and it is through the islands.

lets not start this whole missing the islands thing.

far too early.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#127 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:43 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z Euro stronger... :eek:

[im.png[/url]


It also shows the system going north of the islands similar to the Ukmet and Icon.....unlike the GFS which takes it into the Caribbean

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Yea, UKMET has been fairly consistent.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#128 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:44 am

SFLcane wrote:06z Euro stronger... :eek:

https://i.igur.com/8LZF7cX.png


I said a day or so ago that this AEW had a Frances vibe to it. A strengthening cane on a WNW heading above the big islands. Classic Cape Verde track. Ensembles will be what to pay attention to. I'll be looking for any opportunity for the magic door to open and take this out to sea. Trough, shortwave, whatever... Watching the model trends on the strength of the ridge is going to be very important in the coming days. First concern is for our friends in the islands.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#129 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z Euro stronger... :eek:

[im.png[/url]


It also shows the system going north of the islands similar to the Ukmet and Icon.....unlike the GFS which takes it into the Caribbean


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


actually the last few frames show nearly a due west track. and any slight deviation to the south and it is through the islands.

lets not start this whole missing the islands thing.

far too early.


Will the Euro trend S to the GFS which brings this wave S of the big islands?
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#130 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:07 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
SFLcane wrote:06z Euro stronger... :eek:

[im.png[/url]


It also shows the system going north of the islands similar to the Ukmet and Icon.....unlike the GFS which takes it into the Caribbean


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Hebert Box :eek:
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#131 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:12 am

06z EPS...stronger

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#132 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:17 am

What's holding off the NHC to designate it as an invest? I see no reason to wait any longer.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#133 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:23 am

06z GFS gets this down to 953mb in the gulf and landfalls it near Brownsville
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#134 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:34 am

This one is starting to look more ominous than 97L given the huge increase in model support overnight. :eek:
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#135 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:41 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:No invest yet with this wave.. Development probability will likely continue to go up.


Invest 98L will be up shortly.


I am surprised is not yet a invest but eventually will be up soon.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#136 Postby ouragans » Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:47 am

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:No invest yet with this wave.. Development probability will likely continue to go up.


Invest 98L will be up shortly.


I am surprised is not yet a invest but eventually will be up soon.


I'm not the only one hitting "Refresh" since 1hr :lol:
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#137 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:11 am

Invest 98L wya!? :lol:

This looks like it could be a serious problem down the road. Gives me Irma vibes.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#138 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:26 am

It doesn’t matter if one of both of these AEWs develop. Even if it’s just future-98L, the record for the earliest 12th named storm will fall. However, if both develop, it could be a close call to which one will get the name Laura. I’m still thinking 97L will be Laura and this will become Marco; it’s been some time since we had a Macho Monster M-storm in the Atlantic, since 2019 broke that trend.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#139 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:28 am

GEPS Ensembles paint a concerning picture for at least the Antilles and the Bahamas and it isn't looking great for the CONUS either.

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#140 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:29 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:GEPS Ensembles paint a concerning picture for at least the Antilles and the Bahamas and it isn't looking great for the CONUS either.

https://i.imgur.com/U0O42CP.gif

No escape route there! But being that this is over a week out will hopefully change.

Hard to believe that the CMC might be more trustworthy than the GFS these days.
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