Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Iceresistance]

When was the last time the GFS did something like this in the Atlantic?


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/First-Peak-of-the-12z-GFS-Modelcane.png

[skyline385]

Just watch that door close...

Yea the 588dm number seems to be the ridge thickness to keep a look out for, can see how it is does not let the weakness get through.


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[zal0phus]

When was the last time the GFS did something like this in the Atlantic?

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/First-Peak-of-the-12z-GFS-Modelcane.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/First-Peak-of-the-12z-GFS-Modelcane.png

I might be mistaken, but the last time I can recall the GFS being so bullish was Irma into South Florida.
This year has been very unusual and most storms have underperformed, but could this turn into what Delta or Eta was thought to be?

[Fancy1001]

I’m wondering if this will tread the gap between the Yucatán and Cuba during happy hour.

[skyline385]

Looking at how hard it gets hit from Yucatan, am guessing the GFS has a small tight core modelled.


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[Ivanhater]

Ridge looks to break down a bit at 240 hours

[chris_fit]

Ridge slightly eroding @ 240hrs - This one might make it to TX on this run

[Spacecoast]

Agreement on Yucatan hit @228 Hr...

[skyline385]

No recurve towards FL this run, goes into Texas or Mexico at this rate




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[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS is quite active with this in the Caribbean and about as active as any run so far.

[Stormybajan]

Im watching this wave closely...GFS, HWRF and 6z ICON spin this up prior to exiting us in the windwards..good to see that our MET office is watching this too as I got a notification the CAP CAP app (weather app the MET uses to send out weather alerts such as flood warnings, TS warning, thunderstorms etc) . Said it should be in the area from late wednesday into Thursday. I'm expecting a lemon at 2 pm and wouldnt be shocked to have a TD before reaching us. As Skyline said if the GFS was right Hurricane Gilbert would be an excellent analog or Delta

[Ivanhater]

Curving north with trough coming from the plains. Might be Louisiana hit

[SFLcane]

The 12Z GEFS is quite active with this in the Caribbean and about as active as any run so far.

Indeed wow...

[AutoPenalti]

Lets see what the Euro shows.

[skyline385]

Curving north with trough coming from the plains. Might be Louisiana hit

Yea LA really need a break


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[Ivanhater]

Lets see what the Euro shows.

Most likely will end up by the Yucatan at 240 like 00Z run, Gfs and Cmc

[wxman57]

I'm surprised the NHC didn't even identify the wave in this morning's outlook. No development likely over the next week, though. I'd be cautious about believing anything the GFS spits out beyond 72 hrs.

[kevin]

Even though GFS does like to overestimate long-term stuff, I've still rarely seen it go 920 mb for any Atlantic storm in recent years. Really shows the potential for any TC in the WCar for the rest of the season.

[skyline385]

I'm surprised the NHC didn't even identify the wave in this morning's outlook. No development likely over the next week, though. I'd be cautious about believing anything the GFS spits out beyond 72 hrs.

Well 12Z GFS had a TD at 54 hrs lol. I agree though, it’s the GFS in the western Atlantic, need to be cautious with it.


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[weeniepatrol]

The best analog modelstorm that I can come up with right now is Delta 2020

Or Gilbert from everyone’s favorite analog year


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Gilbert didn’t form in 2013