2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

I just feel a very eerie quiet while checking each new run of the models. Technically, I see nothing unusual for less then 24 hours until the "beginning of the end" but the trepidation is building like a roller coaster reaching the very top of a Mt. Everest sized peak! Hold on for what may soon be one long violent ride

[cycloneye]

Maybe some development possibilities after June 15?

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1796640374573736193




 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1796490822827086220

[Stratton23]

Ensembles showing after the 13th things start to get active, especially in the Western Caribbean

[Stratton23]

The 00z ICON appears to have a crossover from a system into the pacific, transfers the energy into the Bay of Campcache at hour 180

[ouragans]

The 00z ICON appears to have a crossover from a system into the pacific, transfers the energy into the Bay of Campcache at hour 180

6z EC ENS is starting to show something similar by June 9th

[cycloneye]

Are we in August or in June?

[Deshaunrob17]

Are we in August or in June?

https://i.imgur.com/jgtDDJS.png

Facts! I’ve been watching the GFS and this wave for the last 3 runs. Honestly, that area has to be watched because there has been an uptick in June activity there since 2017. Given how more favorable things could get later this month, I won’t be surprised if something tries to develop before the Antilles.

[ouragans]

Apparently, EC ENS is sniffing something too, crossing the southernmost LA by June 11th

[Stratton23]

We may have something to watch next week, models are starting to indicate that a broad and weak area of low pressure may attempt to form somewhere near the yucatan channel and move northward, GFS is showing is , CMC has some energy, ICON has a pacific crossover, its all in the 7-10 day range so it should be something to casually watch

[wxman57]

Looks like the 18Z GFS is done with TC hibernation. Storm develops near NE Yucatan next Tuesday and hits Tampa as a hurricane on Wednesday. Nothing but high pressure there in the 12Z EC. Nothing in any other model. Believe it at your own risk.

[StPeteMike]

Looks like the 18Z GFS is done with TC hibernation. Storm develops near NE Yucatan next Tuesday and hits Tampa as a hurricane on Wednesday. Nothing but high pressure there in the 12Z EC. Nothing in any other model. Believe it at your own risk.

We shall see as well. I wouldn’t mind a slop storm to bring rain. But if something does form, I do wonder if we would see a rapid intensification with a storm. The temps through that area are 85-87 degrees.

[Stratton23]

Just have to watch and see, it appears the Euro and CMC also have the same idea as far as transferring energy from the pacific into the Western Caribbean, with the GFS being the only one to show development right now, could just be one run, but given that its in the 7-10 day window, if it starts consistently showing up in future runs, then it will be really something to watch

[wxman57]

Just have to watch and see, it appears the Euro and CMC also have the same idea as far as transferring energy from the pacific into the Western Caribbean, with the GFS being the only one to show development right now, could just be one run, but given that its in the 7-10 day window, if it starts consistently showing up in future runs, then it will be really something to watch

We're forecasting for all basins worldwide. The GFS is doing the same thing everywhere since the last "upgrade". Don't trust it when it's alone in developing a TC.

[StPeteMike]

CMC does also have something coming from this area, but it’s relatively weak (almost nothing) and heads due north from Yucatan. Normally, the CMC start showing these storms stronger when they’re 7 days out. Icon keeps the system in the EPAC it looks like.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like the 18Z GFS is done with TC hibernation. Storm develops near NE Yucatan next Tuesday and hits Tampa as a hurricane on Wednesday. Nothing but high pressure there in the 12Z EC. Nothing in any other model. Believe it at your own risk.

That’s when you know the season has really started (when the ghost storms begin appearing)

[chaser1]

Hello, GFS 18Z model run? Your stable 0Z model run brother just called and asked me to give you a message. He appreciates your humor but suggested that you "get a real job"

[wxman57]

Looking at today's 12Z GFS, I see a vorticity max over the East Pacific that the GFS takes north into the western Caribbean then off the SE U.S. Coast next Thursday, where it develops into a frontal low. Other models keep all energy in the East Pacific. I'm not inclined to believe the GFS.

[StPeteMike]

Looking at today's 12Z GFS, I see a vorticity max over the East Pacific that the GFS takes north into the western Caribbean then off the SE U.S. Coast next Thursday, where it develops into a frontal low. Other models keep all energy in the East Pacific. I'm not inclined to believe the GFS.

The GFS was at least good sniffing out the non-tropical low that developed and went over Hispaniola and now east of Bahamas. Although it did try on earlier runs making it somewhat tropical, but it was still 7 days out showing increased moisture in the Caribbean and impacting Hispaniola.

Point is, I’ll give it some credit and worth in thinking that we could see some increased moisture moving up from Yucatán.West Caribbean and increasing rain chances through south Florida. Will we see a hurricane though? Highly unlikely.

[Stratton23]

Even though the GFS has a high false alarm storm bias, I will say its still the better of the globals at seeing development, although it will likely be wrong here, the Euro is absolutely garbage at seeing cyclogenisis, i stopped taking that model seriously after it completely dropped the ball badly on hurricane hanna, it is only good for 500 mb height patterns, not development, , as for the CMC, not really sure how great it is with tropical systems

[Cpv17]

Even though the GFS has a high false alarm storm biacy, I will say its still the better of the globals at seeing development, although it will likely be wrong here, the Euro is absolutely garbage at seeing cyclogenisis, i stopped taking that model seriously after it completely dropped the ball badly on hurricane hanna, it is only good for 500 mb height patterns, not development, , as for the CMC, not really sure how great it is with tropical systems

I don’t go by operationals unless it’s within 5-7 days.