Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (30/70)

[lsuhurricane]

As a modest TS, 12z ICON backs way off of its 0z solution and keeps it riding 15N at a westward clip.

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON is much weaker than and S of the 0Z run and has WSW motion to 15N, 49W at 168 well below a 600 dm H5 high at a steady state 1003 mb/TS.

[BobHarlem]

This system won't be zipping across the Atlantic quite as fast as Erin did. (snapshot vs erin thread here) at 120 hours erin was already north of the Caribbean, vs here where it's still well east of it.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET, after having it for the first run in a couple of days as a TD on the 0Z run (though it later weakened), is back to having the low too weak to be classified as a TC.

[lsuhurricane]

That is NOT an upper-level pattern favoring recurve! 12z GFS. Very strong high pressure.

[StormWeather]

That is NOT an upper-level pattern favoring recurve! 12z GFS. Very strong high pressure.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025090212/gfs_z500a_atl_32.png

I looked at the successive runs of the GFS from 12Z yesterday to the 12Z run of today (September 10th, 12Z timestamp) and it appears that the GFS has trended further south. Concerning to see. Let’s see if it holds or returns to a safe (as safe as it can be with the pattern) recurve.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS is further south and much stronger. Not enough to be a threat to the islands, but Bermuda may be in trouble.

[TampaWxLurker]

12z JUST east of Bermuda.

[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian recurves east of the Caribbean, never gets west of 61W. This is left of the 0z, though, but I think the 12z runs are more concerning for Bermuda than before. Better for the Caribbean Islands.

[Pelicane]

Looks like Lorena in the EPAC will play a future role with this system. Her remnants seem to help form a cutoff low in the SE as potential future Gabrielle turns north. Important to watch since if Gabrielle trends far enough west and that low is strong enough it could pinwheel around it. Already happened on the 9/1 0z run of the GFS, albeit with a seperate feature.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
southwest of the Cabo Verde islands and continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
remain conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or this weekend. This system is expected to
initially move slowly westward and then gradually accelerate
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gallina

[TomballEd]

That is NOT an upper-level pattern favoring recurve! 12z GFS. Very strong high pressure.

https://i.ibb.co/gFSJSJ6k/Screenshot-2025-09-02-112524.png

An EC trough seems to be able to recurve it passing E of Bermuda. They'd have weather if model verified perfectly, but otherwise a fish sto

[Nimbus]

12Z ECM following along with the idea of a ridge to the north at 5 days system centered near 16N.
Beyond 120 hours the ridge evolution and track don't need me to weigh in.

[lsuhurricane]

Yeah, this Euro run gets closer to the Lesser Antilles than the 0z run before stair stepping NW.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro gets very close to the islands, but not over it, but later goes right over Bermuda as a cat 3.

Euro over bermuda:

[LarryWx]

Yeah, this Euro run gets closer to the Lesser Antilles than the 0z run before stair stepping NW.

For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

**Mods, please delete this as someone else posted this just before me while I was typing this. Thanks.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Yeah, this Euro run gets closer to the Lesser Antilles than the 0z run before stair stepping NW.

For the record but fwiw since it’s still well out in wild guessing land, the 12Z Euro directly hits Bermuda 9/14-5 as a MH as it moves NE.

**Mods, please delete this as someone else posted this just before me while I was typing this. Thanks.

It is also moving very slowly with TS winds over the island for 48 hours. Fabian was like that in '03 and people still talk about it. That was also the last time a storm caused a fatality on or around the island.

[cycloneye]

Elongated near 10N.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Elongated near 10N.

https://i.imgur.com/EEMg6Lw.jpeg

Getting close though, isn't it. I expect more than 30% chance in the next 48 hours.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro ensembles shifted right overall, 8 members go over the islands, which is actually more than the 0z, but most members shifted further north than the 0z, middle of the road is generally pointed toward Bermuda.



All of the GFS ensembles stay north of the islands.