Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[GCANE]

Interesting how this may evolve once in the Carib.
Forecast track is mainly dependent on a High over southern Ontario and another High west of Portugal.
There could be a chance this makes it into the GoM.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I’m sorry, but based on what i’ve seen this season, the GFS cannot be trusted or even used to make decisions.

It was one of the first to sniff this one out. But yeah, for the most part it has been pretty useless this season.

Sniff what out? This is still a model storm.

[caneman]

I’m sorry, but based on what i’ve seen this season, the GFS cannot be trusted or even used to make decisions.

It was one of the first to sniff this one out. But yeah, for the most part it has been pretty useless this season.

Sniff what out? This is still a model storm.

The idea of it. All models have been have been on, off, on and off again so far.

[cycloneye]

The Google AI Deep Mind ensembles at 06z have very strong members in the Western Caribbean including a 888 mb one.

[blp]

It looks like the GFS develops a competing vortex in the SW Caribbean that stops the progression of the wave in the C. Caribbean and then focuses the energy on that side. While the Euro does not have the competing vorticity and keeps the wave intact moving into the SW. Caribbean.

We know the GFS has a tendency for spinning up vorticities in the SW. Caribbean. I don't think the GFS solution is realistic.






00z Euro

[TomballEd]

New GFS looks like it has 2 lows in the Caribbean, one of which will impact Puerto Rico as 981 hurricane. The second system the GFS predicts in the SW Caribbean probably will affect how it moves the hurricane is predicts.

Edit to Add: Low gets stronger than 981 mb

Edit to add Part 2

Obviously not a forecast, especially with the other low the GFS develops in the Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

From what I see there are three possible outcomes:
Written in Florida and Tampa bay perspective

 https://x.com/tampastorm/status/1978863760711287197


1. Red Arrow: system stays south suppressed by a large high pressure ridge over the US and moves into Central America causing flooding there, no impacts to Tampa Bay.

2. Green Arrow: wave moves into the northwest Caribbean Sea, and atmospheric conditions allow it to intensify into a powerful hurricane. This is the one track that would come close to us, and unfortunately would be the track that allows it to get very strong. High ocean heat content untapped so far this year in the Caribbean plus upper level anticyclone (think mass being evacuated out of the top allowing air and moisture to rush into the bottom of the system causing air pressure falls and intensification), plus positive convectively coupled kelvin wave (fancy phrase for lift and ascent that helps clouds grow upward and allows a storm to strengthen- these kelvin waves are atmospheric and ocean waves that bounce off continents with a cyclical nature and can help storms build). On this track, the storm would slow down over the Caribbean and have many days to get strong before and cold front or trough sweeps it north into the gulf and northeast coming uncomfortably close to Florida and Cuba. This is a more probable scenario than the wave developing early and missing most of the Caribbean islands to the east.

3. Yellow Arrow: The wave develops early and a trough catches it and pulls it out east of Florida keeping us safe. Less likely to occur because the wave is large and conditions won’t allow it to develop until reaching further west in the Caribbean. Flooding risk to Caribbean islands especially further east

There is lots of uncertainty, and a threat to us is not imminent. But this is worth monitoring. I’ll have More confidence in which of these three tracks will verify in about 5 to 6 days.

[SFLcane]

New GFS looks like it has 2 lows in the Caribbean, one of which will impact Puerto Rico as 981 hurricane. The second system the GFS predicts in the SW Caribbean probably will affect how it moves the hurricane is predicts.

Edit to Add: Low gets stronger than 981 mb

Edit to add Part 2

Obviously not a forecast, especially with the other low the GFS develops in the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/3pm1l9W.gif

Nonsense pulling vorts out of its butt there.

gefs does not agree surely with op most head into the western caribbean

[TomballEd]

Andy Hazelton You Tube on disturbance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEM1QWCnaeU

[cycloneye]

Andy says, why not both about GFS.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1978859251972854028

[LarryWx]

12Z:
Icon joining the consensus turning it sharply right as it goes into DR after forming in E Caribbean; also very weak entire run

CMC once again is the only model with a TCG E of the Lesser Antilles; TS goes through Windwards; it like the Icon joins the consensus turning it sharply right as it, too, goes N over DR. Then the weakened main part moves NE toward Bermuda

GFS forms in E Caribbean and then moves N over PR followed by turn to NE/OTS

UKMET text again shows no TCG through day 7 but again a sfc low is there (1007 mb) that’s further S than 0Z with it 300 miles S of Jamaica moving slowly W at 168; so this not turning right by 168 is exception so far of 12Z operationals

JMA only out to 72 so far (inconclusive)
Euro is next

[psyclone]

The 1600 hour panel of the GFS shows Christmas. We don't need a hurricane but we do need rain. We probably get neither. But Santa is coming.

[cycloneye]

2:15 PM (18:15 UTC) TWD:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W S of
15N, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 28W and 37W.

[SFLcane]

12Z:
Icon joining the consensus turning it sharply right as it goes into DR after forming in E Caribbean; also very weak entire run

CMC once again is the only model with a TCG E of the Lesser Antilles; TS goes through Windwards; it like the Icon joins the consensus turning it sharply right as it, too, goes N over DR. Then the weakened main part moves NE toward Bermuda

GFS forms in E Caribbean and then moves N over PR followed by turn to NE/OTS

UKMET text again shows no TCG through day 7 but again a sfc low is there (1007 mb) that’s further S than 0Z with it 300 miles S of Jamaica moving slowly W at 168; so this not turning right by 168 is exception so far of 12Z operationals

Euro is next

Only model worth here is the ukmet icon is trash cmc is also trash at times and the gfs in this particular case is pulling vorts out of venezuela like its all good lol. - my opinion atleast

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the tropical central Atlantic is
expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several
days. Some slow development of this system is possible when
it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[boca]

Everything is all about timing and how fast the trough is to catch the future storm because the models will keep on changing. The one thing that is different this year is that their is no Bermuda high but more of an Azores high so most of the storms this year make it to 63W and turn north.

[zzzh]

Not looking bad.

[zzzh]

ECAI finally on board (the last model to do this), showing the wave strengthening and stalling around 75W-80W 15N for a whopping 8 days

[TomballEd]

The wave has outflow to the N, S and E. I suspect competition with the disturbance ahead will help prevent development before the Caribbean.

[TomballEd]

https://i.imgur.com/pZtpG6K.png
ECAI finally on board (the last model to do this), showing the wave strengthening and stalling around 75W-80W 15N for a whopping 8 days

The world doesn't need another Hurricane Mitch.