TD#9

[deltadog03]

I found this out to be very interesting...that ULL that was suppose to pick TD9 up and out is moving VERY rapidly to the WSW...this imo. should have NO effect on this developing system...there is a broad weak trof SW of harvey but, is also leaving with harvey...Everyone, was this ULL suppose to cause the weakness in the ridge? cuz, if so...i don't think its gonna happen...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Ivanhater]

i think derek said the same thing, yall might be on to something

[superfly]

A lot of convection right where the center is. This has to be a TS already.

[deltadog03]

i think derek said the same thing, yall might be on to something

hey, you talking about my post??

[Ivanhater]

yes

[WeatherEmperor]

Just like Avila said in the 5pm discussion, tonights model runs should be more insightful so we can see what atmospheric conditions will impact this subtropical ridge.

<RICKY>

[brunota2003]

I dont get it. Why dont the NOAA G4 jets just fly straight into hurricanes? Why only those C130's?

<RICKY>

The G4s are for the over-the-hurricane recon and they don't fly in because they cost too much (and they are NOAA's - NOAA cares more about them than the Air Force's C-130's )

from what i understand at the hurricane conference 2 years ago or last year, cant remember , bob sheets said they dont fly into them because they were affraid that the combination of the wind and driving rain may stall the engines.. he said that during a speech during one of the sessions. not sure if that was meant to be smart, but mark and i sure took it as a real shot at those guys... this all comes from talk about stopping the air force from flying into the storms.. that was discussed a while back.. who knows...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yea, they had the same problem with the P2V Neptunes, water would cool the temp inside the engine, then the engine would shutoff, then the plane would fall like a stone, and... i think you could picture what would happen afterwords..., luckily I dont think that happend to any of them...

A P2V was lost with all hands in Hurricane Janet in 1955

http://www.aewa.org/Library/vw4/vw4.html

Not familiar with the details.

I'm talkin about the jet engine ones, but yes Snowcloud Five, a prop plane, was lost during Hurricane Janet in 1955 with everyone on board killed, the plane has never been found...

[wxman57]

Just like Avila said in the 5pm discussion, tonights model runs should be more insightful so we can see what atmospheric conditions will impact this subtropical ridge.

<RICKY>

I don't see how another model run 6 hours from now will be much more insightful than the present runs. There won't be any additional data out there in the Atlantic. At least, not a significant difference in the data. The GFS has been making wild swings beyond 5 days. It probably won't have a clue for 3-5 more days, if then. The 12Z European is out and has TD 9/Irene heading north around 50W. 12z Canadian is similar. NOGAPS doesn't see anything there. The GFDL has been consistent in driving TD9/Irene out to sea to the north, but it's based partly on the GFS, so we may see a change there with time.

Bottom line, we won't really be too sure where this storm is going for another 4-5 days or more.

[deltadog03]

I agree wxman...models will not handle this very well...my best advice would be get a good general idea of where the tropical and global models are taking it...(take with grain of salt) and look at current and past movements of the actual storm...best advice i could give right now

[abajan]

Something good that I can find in all the bad. Because the system is so huge, it will have to struggle more to intensify than if it where a smaller cyclone...

That's only the first part of inertia. The second part is that once it gets going, it'll be hard to stop! (Just like how a fully loaded freight train takes an awfully long time to get up to speed. But once it gets going, LOOK OUT!)

[WeatherEmperor]

Just like Avila said in the 5pm discussion, tonights model runs should be more insightful so we can see what atmospheric conditions will impact this subtropical ridge.

<RICKY>

I don't see how another model run 6 hours from now will be much more insightful than the present runs. There won't be any additional data out there in the Atlantic. At least, not a significant difference in the data. The GFS has been making wild swings beyond 5 days. It probably won't have a clue for 3-5 more days, if then. The 12Z European is out and has TD 9/Irene heading north around 50W. 12z Canadian is similar. NOGAPS doesn't see anything there. The GFDL has been consistent in driving TD9/Irene out to sea to the north, but it's based partly on the GFS, so we may see a change there with time.

Bottom line, we won't really be too sure where this storm is going for another 4-5 days or more.

Im just telling you what Avila said. Go tell him not me.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[CDO]

I think the difference Avila was referring to was the fact that the 18Z global models would be the first runs which initialized TD9 as a depression. I don't think he was referring to the surrounding atmospheric conditions.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What are the models seeing(if anything) to curve this system to the NW once it reaches the 50' longitude mark. I know it is way too early but I am just curious.

[Astro_man92]

here are some maps(I'm going to call it Irene because it is easier)
----------------------------------
Irene tracking map
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Historical Tracking map for Irene
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Discussionfor for Irene
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Satilite map for Irene
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Computer models for Irene
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Irene track
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Overall Sea Serface Temps map
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2005 hurricane season map
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Retired hurricane names
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I hope these help with your discussions

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050805 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050805 0000 050805 1200 050806 0000 050806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 34.6W 13.4N 36.6W 13.8N 38.3W 14.2N 39.8W
BAMM 12.9N 34.6W 13.6N 36.3W 14.2N 37.7W 14.6N 39.3W
A98E 12.9N 34.6W 13.3N 37.0W 13.6N 39.5W 13.9N 41.7W
LBAR 12.9N 34.6W 13.6N 37.0W 14.4N 39.4W 15.2N 41.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050807 0000 050808 0000 050809 0000 050810 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 41.3W 15.9N 44.8W 18.5N 48.8W 21.6N 52.7W
BAMM 15.2N 40.9W 17.0N 44.7W 19.4N 49.6W 21.8N 54.7W
A98E 13.9N 44.0W 14.9N 48.2W 15.7N 52.7W 17.6N 56.8W
LBAR 15.9N 44.8W 17.0N 50.3W 17.9N 55.4W 20.2N 56.4W
SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 71KTS
DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 71KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 34.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 30.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Model Guidance.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like the models are shifting west

[WeatherEmperor]

It looks like the models are shifting west

yeah seems that the BAM models have shifted slightly west and I havent yet been able to plot the LBAR which I would assume did the same. Anyone else notice that the GFDL also went a bit further south from its 18Z run?

<RICKY>

[jkt21787]

Not surprising at all. As said earlier, we will probably see this shift continue in subsequent model runs.

[Hurricaneman]

Im not liking this at all