East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

does that low develop off of a cold front or does it just spin it up out of nowhere?

<RICKY>

[Rainband]

either way..It will be WET..we actually need the rain, so I guess thats good news

[cycloneye]

either way..It will be WET..we actually need the rain, so I guess thats good news

Bingo.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah you can have the rain up there Rainband. We have had enough here in south florida already. Take it. Its yours

<RICKY>

[ronjon]

The 18Z GFS now forms two closed circulations over the GOM with both riding over FL. The 12Z GFS and UKMET both formed closed lows in the SE GOM - the 12Z ECMWF (Euro) forms a closed circulation in the GOM - I dunno about you, but that's a lot of good models pointing toward development in the GOM this week. And the big concern is that front forecast to come down to the northern Gulf Coast and force anything in the Gulf toward the NE across FL.

[tracyswfla]

Yeah you can have the rain up there Rainband. We have had enough here in south florida already. Take it. Its yours

<RICKY>

You aren't kidding... I have had a flooded yard every night for 3 or 4 nights!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 18Z GFS now forms two closed circulations over the GOM with both riding over FL. The 12Z GFS and UKMET both formed closed lows in the SE GOM - the 12Z ECMWF (Euro) forms a closed circulation in the GOM - I dunno about you, but that's a lot of good models pointing toward development in the GOM this week. And the big concern is that front forecast to come down to the northern Gulf Coast and force anything in the Gulf toward the NE across FL.

Yup this is my concern. That front.
But BRING ON THE RAIN BABY!!!!! Woot! It's been too dry! Almost
no rain since August 22nd at my location.

Just hope it behaves and stays a strong wave or tropical depression
and nothing stronger

[Anthysteg]

Assuming those steering currents hold strong.



As long as we get Tammy and Vince next week and Wilma the week after i'll be happy.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah you can have the rain up there Rainband. We have had enough here in south florida already. Take it. Its yours

<RICKY>

You aren't kidding... I have had a flooded yard every night for 3 or 4 nights!

Oh boy tell me about it. I just wish the rain would stop already.

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Assuming those steering currents hold strong.



As long as we get Tammy and Vince next week and Wilma the week after i'll be happy.

Well I hope the tropics shut down but I could use a little rain.

As long as I get good rains I will be very happy
My grass is dying at a fast rate, parts of my yard look completely
dead. Bust A Drought...

[Rainband]

Assuming those steering currents hold strong.



As long as we get Tammy and Vince next week and Wilma the week after i'll be happy.

First of all I trust the experts. Second of all...you must not be a homeowner??

[ameriwx2003]

This is the 18z GFS which shows a fairly strong low (1004 mbs) near the Florida Penninsula.The question is will it be a pure tropical system or a hybrid one.

Cycloneye. agreed.. it will be interesting to see if the system in the Gulf that the GFS has been developing will be a true tropical or Hybrid later in the week... The NAM has really been bullish on the system approaching Florida from the Bahamas.. and the latest 18z developes a pretty strong low ( relative to the NAM MODEL). of course the NAM model is most of the time a poor model for Tropical systems.. Regardless the pattern setting up sure looks like wet week ahead for Florida and for points further North in time it appears.

18Z NAM 84 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[Anthysteg]

Assuming those steering currents hold strong.



As long as we get Tammy and Vince next week and Wilma the week after i'll be happy.

First of all I trust the experts. Second of all...you must not be a homeowner??

I didn't mean all hit me man lol, just mean I hope they form.

[tracyswfla]

Assuming those steering currents hold strong.



As long as we get Tammy and Vince next week and Wilma the week after i'll be happy.

Of course you want them all to be fish!

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD...


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK AND
NATURE OF THE LOW REMAINS. BUT NONETHELESS...INCREASED CLOUDS AND
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK.SCATTERED INLAND WITH LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURE LARGELY UNCHANGED.

&&

.MARINE...DEEP E->NE WIND FLOW WILL ENDURE THROUGH LATE WED.
ANTICIPATED SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER BAHAMAS MONDAY AND MOVE WWD
INTO ERN GLFMEX BY MIDDAY TUE. AS A RESULT...WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE NELY WRT/TIME (I.E., THROUGH TUE). ETA AND GFS BOTH AGREE SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND ARE CLOSE IN THEIR POSITIONS OF FEATURE OVER
TIME. OF COURSE...MODELS CHANGE...SO STAY TUNED. DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK AND MAGNITUDE OF SFC LOW...MARINE WINDS COULD BE NEAR GALE
FORCE...OR REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE. TOWARDS THE END
OF PERIOD...APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM NW...CAUSES MOST SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE LATE LAST SPRING. USUALLY...MAGNITUDE
DECREASES AS EVENT NEARS. WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IN MOBILE BAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

[bvigal]

What we have in our area is a TROUGH. It is a line, and can be seen on the surface maps: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif
Convection "blobs" can and will occur along this line. One of those blobs dropped what radar now says is 5" of rain on Virgin Gorda today.

Here's how the National Hurricane Center described it just 30 minutes ago in TWD:

"...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM STAN AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-75W.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N87W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. A TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N68W 21N68W 17N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 66W-70W...AND FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ..."

One difference between this and the two waves/later lows that became Katrina and Rita. When they came through here, there was a LOT of energy - strong gusty winds (what became Katrina I had 60mph gusts up here at 1,000 ft, it blew furniture across the porch, and down at water level they measured 55mph). Today we had little of no winds, even in the thunderstorms.

[jrod]

One of the more accurate television weatherman said the upper level winds will not become favorable in time and we(Florida) do not have to worry about significant development, but we will get rain and perhaps some gusty winds.

Given the water temps and the season we've had I think this area has at least a fair chance of development. One thing that catches my eye is the wave of convection with this area, correct me if I'm wrong but does this tropical wave stretch from 30N 72W all the way to 10N and 50W. Given that something will more than likely spin off this 'wave' of energy imho.

[jrod]

One difference between this and the two waves/later lows that became Katrina and Rita. When they came through here, there was a LOT of energy - strong gusty winds (what became Katrina I had 60mph gusts up here at 1,000 ft, it blew furniture across the porch, and down at water level they measured 55mph). Today we had little of no winds, even in the thunderstorms.

The wave/trough axis isnt quite over you yet from my estimation, you will likely get some weather later tonight through tommorow from this feature.


So is this a trough or a wave or a combo of both?

[fci]

Yeah you can have the rain up there Rainband. We have had enough here in south florida already. Take it. Its yours

<RICKY>

I beg to differ, at least regarding Palm Beach County.
We are only a couple of inches over average for percipitation this summer.

Down in your area, Broward County; at the Ft Laud airport there was a defecit to normal in Sept of over 2 inches after an average July and August and a very wet June!

I for one WANT to see more rain before the rainy season is over and the dry season kicks in.
We can actually use it, before we are told in Spring to conserve.
(Its happened before!)

[fci]

Yeah you can have the rain up there Rainband. We have had enough here in south florida already. Take it. Its yours

<RICKY>

You aren't kidding... I have had a flooded yard every night for 3 or 4 nights!

I don't know about Ft Myers but in nearby Naples; rainfall is down over 8 inches to average for July-August-September. This after being 12 inches over in June!

Don't knock getting the rain while we can in the rainy season before the spicot turns off!