22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Website · #121 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 11:53 am

Actually... the center is already at 28 N. That takes it across NORTH Florida, and with it moving NW right now, that's impossible.

I'm concerned about Southeastern New England right now... Long Island and CT/RI/MA.

Duffy · #122 Postby **Duffy** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:14 pm

how about Coastal Maine? you think it will get up this far?

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #123 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:17 pm

Duffy wrote:how about Coastal Maine? you think it will get up this far?

It's possible....

markymark8 · #124 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:22 pm

I dont think it will be a big deal if it develops. We all know guys and gals that a weak system like this one can't punch right through a cold front unless ofcourse it breaks down and fizzles out then the system could go to the west and hit the East coast. Anybody seen any future models of this trough in the near future? I was just wondering how the models show how this trough was going to hold up the next 72 hours.

#125 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:22 pm

markymark8 · #126 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:29 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

THAT LOOKS AWFUL!!! looks like this will have a hard time developing. Tammy's leftovers look stronger than this. PLEASE!!!

Website · #127 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:45 pm

Can someone please put a floater on it? Floater 1 is what's left of Stan(which isn't much) and Floater 2 is the quiet SE GOM area.

Hurricaneman · #128 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:00 pm

Im not going to take my eyes off this one

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #129 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:57 pm

35 knots
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#130 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:00 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO (AL222005) ON 20051008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 1800 051009 0600 051009 1800 051010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.8N 60.1W 29.6N 63.0W 29.9N 66.1W 29.8N 69.0W
BAMM 28.8N 60.1W 29.8N 62.7W 30.5N 65.2W 31.1N 68.0W
A98E 28.8N 60.1W 29.9N 63.6W 30.0N 66.3W 28.3N 68.9W
LBAR 28.8N 60.1W 30.1N 62.6W 31.3N 64.9W 32.3N 67.0W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 1800 051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 71.2W 27.5N 73.3W 25.2N 70.9W 25.3N 65.3W
BAMM 31.8N 70.6W 32.8N 73.2W 31.4N 71.9W 27.4N 68.3W
A98E 26.8N 69.9W 24.1N 69.9W 24.2N 68.5W 24.8N 67.0W
LBAR 33.1N 68.7W 35.2N 70.5W 39.3N 69.9W 44.5N 69.6W
SHIP 44KTS 43KTS 40KTS 32KTS
DSHP 44KTS 43KTS 40KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.8N LONCUR = 60.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 57.8W DIRM12 = 343DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 23.9N LONM24 = 57.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

30 knots here!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #131 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:08 pm

It looks like its got southeastly shear. It looks like the chance it will become Vince are low at this moment. The system over the northeastern Atlantic looks to have developed a eye like hole. In still holds at 3.0st!!! Thats not less organized.

:lol:

Thunder44 · #132 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:54 pm

It's gotten more compact in the last few hours. It's become a small area of thunderstorms but they are still co-located with the center. This is still likely to become a TS soon. I notice the 18z models have it as TD 22 now, not STD.

rainbird · #133 Postby **rainbird** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:32 pm

cycloneye quote:
'For those newbie members if this subtropical depression is upgraded to a storm it will be named as it were a pure tropical system so Vince name is on the horizon leaving Wilma as the last in the list to then pass to the greek alphabet."

Thanks - Will keep an "eagle eye" on this subtropical depression for future developements if it comes our way towards the Carolinas - just 'learning and lurking'' -

#134 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:36 pm

the system is very pathetic-looking IMHO. Water temps are only marginally favorable for development as it moves WNW.

This is the only thing in the Atlantic worth paying attention to as we are in the beginning of the declivity of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Basin , so it is actually getting more attention than it deserves.

#135 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:42 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

If you take a look of all the moister to the west and south and some east it can make itself into a TS and be another rain maker for the coast. Like we need it. I may have to get boat ready LOL

NCHurricane · #136 Postby **NCHurricane** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 pm

Yep, we went (in my area anyway) virtually rain free since the end of July. Now Tammy's ghost dumps around 9" on me in 30 hours - some places 10+" south of here.

We don't need 22 to come any closer than is forecast right now. Shoo!

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

artist · #137 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:10 pm

anyone else notice there are now 2 low level circulation - the other is south of the main.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Thunder44 · #138 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:52 pm

Floater 1 on this storm now:

Website · #139 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:58 pm

That thing is tiny.

Bermuda may not see anything more than high clouds...

fasterdisaster · #140 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 6:20 pm

Looks really crappy, but it is sliiiiiightly better organized than 4-6 hours ago.

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